With pollster predictions out on Wednesday, exit polls project a victory for the incumbent MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government in the 2026 Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu. However, throwing up a surprise, some pollsters have predicted an influential debut for Vijay and his party, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam.
Despite a high-stakes electoral battle playing out between DMK and AIADMK, all eyes were on actor-turned-politician Vijay and TVK for the elections.
While some pollsters have projected a decent showing for the TVK, others have forecast a key role for the party. Axis My India predicted 98-120 seats for Vijay’s party, forecasting a tie for TVK with DMK+ in vote share, with both standing at 35 per cent. Kamakhya Analytics has also given TVK 67-81 seats, which, if proven right, hands Vijay a major role in the government formation in the state.
Other pollsters have handed TVK decent figures, with P-Marq predicting 16-26 seats for the Vijay-led party, and Matrize projecting between 10-12 seats. JVC has predicted 8-15 seats for Vijay’s party, while Praja Poll has forecast a win in 1 to 9 seats. People’s Insight has projected 30 to 40 Assembly seats for TVK.
What about DMK, AIADMK?
All pollsters predicted a victory for the ruling DMK+ in Tamil Nadu, with some giving it a slight edge and others forecasting a comfortable victory. Axis My India predicted 92-110 seats for DMK, and between 22-32 seats for AIADMK. Matrize predicted a victory for the DMK+, forecasting 122-132 seats, while giving the AIADMK-led alliance 87-100 seats.
P-Marq projected between 125-145 seats for DMK+, followed by AIADMK-led NDA alliance at 65-85 seats. A similar projection was made by People’s Pulse, which gave DMK+ 125-145 seats, and NDA 65-80 seats.
Departing from other pollsters, JVC predicted 128-147 seats for AIADMK-led NDA, and 75-95 seats for DMK+. Kamakhya Analytics predicted 78-95 seats for DMK+, and 68-84 for the AIADMK-led alliance.
The main contest in the state was between the DMK-led alliance and the NDA. The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) includes the Indian National Congress, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK).
Meanwhile, the NDA is led by AIADMK in the Tamil Nadu, with the BJP and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) as allies.
The overall voter turnout in Tamil Nadu, which voted in a single phase on April 23, stood at 82.24 per cent by 5 pm, according to Election Commission of India figures. Polling for all 234 Assembly constituencies concluded at 6 pm.
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