Tamil Nadu government formation: Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay met Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Arlekar once again on 7 May, as uncertainty continues over the formation of the next state government.
Vijay’s party, which won 108 seats in its debut election, had staked a claim to form the government on Wednesday. The Governor, however, was not convinced and asked Vijay to furnish proof that he could head a majority government.
People also ask
AI powered insights from this story
•5 QUESTIONS
Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) party has secured 108 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly. After Vijay vacates one of the two seats he won, the party’s strength will be 107.
The majority mark in the 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly is 118 seats. With Vijay vacating one seat, the required majority will be 117.
Vijay’s TVK party currently has 113 MLAs with Congress support, which is five short of the majority mark. While the Governor has asked for proof of a majority, historical precedents show Governors have invited parties to form governments without a clear majority, requiring them to prove it on the Assembly floor.
TVK can seek coalition with smaller parties like PMK, CPI, and DMDK to cross the majority mark. Another option is outside support from AIADMK, though this is politically complex due to TVK’s unwillingness to align with the BJP, an AIADMK ally.
If no party or coalition is able to prove a majority in the Tamil Nadu assembly, the last resorts are the imposition of President’s rule or fresh elections.
At present, Vijay’s TVK holds 108 seats, while Congress, with 5 MLAs, has pledged support. Together, TVK+ Congress have 113 MLAs, still five short of the majority mark of 118 in the 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly.
“Things will end well soon,” TVK MLA VS Babu told news agency PTI.
Vijay was prepared for a quick swearing-in ceremony today, along with four senior colleagues, but the event has been delayed. Vijay had planned to seek two weeks to prove his majority on the Assembly floor.
Meanwhile, speculation persists about possible realignments. Reports suggest that Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) informally explored the idea of Dravidian parties joining forces to form a government.
TVK has 108 seats, DMK has 59, and AIADMK has 47.
Outgoing Chief Minister MK Stalin, however, signalled that the DMK would not immediately attempt to destabilise a potential TVK government.
In an interview with The Times of India, Stalin said the DMK would “wait for TVK leader C Joseph Vijay to form the government” and “watch without disturbing for six months.”
Clearly, the TVK has not only outperformed both the Dravidian parties – the DMK and the AIADMK – but it has also pushed the state towards a hung Assembly. When no party or alliance gets a simple majority, 118 seats in this case, then it is considered a hung Assembly. Vijay won two seats and will vacate one now. This will bring the majority mark to 117 in a 233-strong house.
What options does TVK have? As uncertainty looms, many scenarios can emerge in Tamil Nadu.
Coalition with smaller parties
Vijay can also expect support from small parties such as Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), CPI(M), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) and CPI.
The most convenient route for TVK would be to secure support from two or more smaller parties, most likely CPI, PMK, and Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), allowing it to cross the majority mark comfortably.
With two MLAs, the VCK, an ally of the DMK, is yet to make a decision. The Left parties and the IUML ruled out providing support to Vijay’s party, PTI added. The CPI(M), CPI and IUML legislators asserted that they would continue to support DMK. All three parties have two MLAs each.
Outside support from AIADMK
A second, more politically complex option would be outside support from AIADMK, which is said to have sought time to meet the governor. The AIADMK has 47 MLAs.
Speculation about a possible TVK-AIADMK understanding has existed for months. But the BJP, an AIADMK ally, remains a bone of contention, since TVK has repeatedly signalled unwillingness to align with the BJP.
To have a formal or informal arrangement with TVK, the AIADMK must exit the BJP-led NDA.
Blast from the past
While the Governor is well within his rights to seek proof for a majority government from Vijay, there have, however, been occasions when the Governor asked parties or coalitions to form governments without a majority.
Recent examples of Governors inviting parties to form governments despite lacking a clear majority include Maharashtra in 2019, when the Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari swore in Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar in an early morning ceremony without firm numbers.
The role of Governor
In 2018, in Karnataka, Governor Vajubhai Vala invited BS Yediyurappa to take oath without the veteran BJP leader having a clear majority in the House.
Experts said there is no question of the Governor first ascertaining whether a person has a majority inside the Raj Bhawan, and then asking for that majority to be proved again on the floor of the House.
“The Governor cannot avoid convening the House. He can ask anyone whom he believes commands the confidence of the house to form the government. A motion of confidence can be sought, and even a person without a prior electoral majority can win the motion if the opposition present and voting does not decide to vote against the motion,” senior advocate Sanjay Hegde wrote on X.
In case no party or coalition can prove a majority, one can expect a President’s Rule or a fresh election in Tamil Nadu as the last resort.
Can the governor call the single-largest party to form govt?
There have been many commissions that have answered this question. As per the Sarkaria Commission Report (1983), which discusses the Role of the governor, if a single party has an absolute majority in the Assembly, the leader of that party should automatically be asked to become the Chief Minister.
However, if there is no such party, the governor should select a Chief Minister from among the following parties or groups of parties by sounding them, in turn, in the order of preference indicated below:
- An alliance of parties that was formed prior to the elections.
- The largest single party staking a claim to form the government with the support of others, including “independents.”
- A post-electoral coalition of parties, with all the partners in the coalition joining the government.
- A post-electoral alliance of parties, with some of the parties in the alliance forming a Government and the remaining parties, including “independents”, supporting the Government from outside.
The Sarkaria Commission report has been cited extensively in many Supreme Court judgments, according to legal news website Bar and Bench. Many of the Sarkaria Commission’s recommendations regarding Article 356 have been endorsed. In SR Bommai v. Union of India (1994), the SC held that the Governor must invite the leader of the party commanding a majority in the House, or the single-largest party/group, to form the Government.
(With inputs from Bar and Bench)
About the Author
