2024-08-31 20:15:02
Arsenal have signed Raheem Sterling from Chelsea on a season-long loan.
Our writers — experts in transfers, tactics, data and football finance — have come together to rate this summer’s senior Premier League transfers in five categories, with each aspect given a score out of 100, to reach a total score out of 500. Hence, The Athletic 500. The ratings are explained in more detail here (not all transfers will be rated as there may be a lack of data to support an analysis).
Below is our rating for this move.
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Tactical fit — 65/100
A look at how the player fits into his new club, using Sentient Sports’ bespoke model, explained by our tactical expert.
Raheem Sterling can play on either wing and occasionally as a centre-forward. His ability to adapt to different roles offers his managers tactical options. At Arsenal, Sterling could provide competition for Gabriel Martinelli on the left and also serve as a backup to Bukayo Saka on the right. His versatility also has implications for Leandro Trossard, who could now become their backup centre-forward — arguably his strongest position — rather than deputising for Martinelli on the left.
On the right, Sterling tends to be more direct and creative, often using his pace and dribbling to beat defenders on the outside and deliver cutbacks. On the left, he plays more as an inverted winger, cutting inside onto his stronger foot, carrying the ball into the penalty area to create scoring opportunities or position himself to finish a low cross across the goal. It was in the latter position that he frequently played during the best goalscoring seasons of his career at Manchester City under Pep Guardiola, who helped him improve his positional awareness and off-the-ball movement.
Despite a modest goals-per-game ratio, Sterling’s ability to find space and get on the end of crosses is excellent. His intelligent positioning and anticipation allow him to exploit gaps in opposition defences, making him a constant threat, even if his finishing can be inconsistent.
In this 3-0 home win against Luton Town in August 2023, as soon as Moises Caicedo passes out wide to Malo Gusto, Sterling moves into the box to position himself for the cross. Gusto delivers a low cross, and Sterling expertly positions himself between Reece Burke and Tom Lockyer before meeting the pass to score. At City, he often peeled away to the back-post to finish cutbacks, which are a key feature of Arsenal’s style under Arteta. Arsenal created more chances from cutbacks (91) than any other team in the Premier League last season.
Sterling’s ball progression and dribbling are also key components of his game and he has leaned more into these during his time at Chelsea. He is a good ball carrier, averaging 5.2 progressive carries per 90 minutes in the league last season, which put him in the 86th percentile among his positional peers. Additionally, he attempted 5.9 take-ons per 90 minutes, placing him in the 87th percentile.
His ability to drive his team forward and create chances by beating defenders also saw him average 2.7 carries into the penalty area per 90 minutes (93rd percentile). Sterling caused problems for defenders and usually won plenty of fouls due to this quality.
The graphic below shows Sterling has been one of the most successful players in winning penalties in the Premier League over the past decade, alongside Jamie Vardy. He tends to draw fouls due to his agile nature and sharpness in attacking situations.
When he receives the ball in space, Sterling has a good body position and first touch. By taking his first touch out of his feet, he limits the time opponents have to close him down, allowing him to accelerate into space with a big touch, often getting across his marker to prevent a recovery run.
Sterling’s game intelligence extends beyond his dribbling and movement. He combines well with team-mates, often using quick one-twos to bypass opponents and create openings. His ability to dribble on both the inside and outside from either flank makes him unpredictable.
Moreover, Sterling’s work rate is excellent. He is not just an attacking threat but also contributes defensively. In a 4-4-2 setup, he presses well from out to in towards the centre-back. His one-versus-one defending is solid, and his ability to be an outlet in transition phases makes him dangerous against unsettled defences.
However, as Sterling approaches 30, some aspects of his game are showing signs of decline, particularly his explosive speed. This reduction in pace could harm his ability to consistently beat defenders, especially in one-v-one situations. This may be shown by his take-on success rate, which was 33 per cent in 2023-24.
As shown in the below graph, Sterling has played more minutes than the average forward in Europe’s top leagues.
Despite his excellent movement and ability to get into scoring positions, Sterling’s finishing has often been inconsistent. At Chelsea, he also leaned more into dribbling and playing with the ball at his feet rather than causing more problems with his movement. In Arteta’s system, he may be better suited to attacking the box without the ball at his feet, which will require another adjustment from him.
Sterling’s inability to strike cleanly through the ball has been an issue throughout his career. While he generates a high volume of chances due to his intelligent runs and positioning, his conversion rate tends to be low. Arsenal will require more proficiency from Sterling; whether he can offer that consistently could define how this move pans out.
Gillian Kasirye and Anantaajith Raghuraman
Season rating: 70/100
Rating the player over last season, using statistics from The Athletic’s data team.
Sterling, who turns 30 in December, experienced an up-and-down season at Chelsea.
Across all competitions, he played 41 games, scoring 10 goals and assisting eight. While he delivered standout performances, including a brace against Luton and a strong showing in a thrilling 4-4 draw against Manchester City, his season also had periods of inconsistency.
These inconsistencies, as well as tactical changes, meant that Sterling was not always a guaranteed starter.
However, he made a solid impact in domestic cup competitions, particularly in the Carabao Cup and FA Cup.
Gillian Kasirye
Gaming rating: 85/100
Rating the player according to Football Manager 2024’s data across both current and potential ability.
Sterling joins Arsenal ready to compete for a starting spot under Arteta, according to Football Manager.
Sterling’s current ability rating on FM24 is 161, which compares favourably against Arsenal’s forward options. For context, Saka leads the way among Arteta’s attacking players, with a current ability rating of 174, but Sterling ranks above Martinelli (160), Trossard (154), and Havertz (152).
Crucially, Sports Interactive’s extensive scouting network believes Sterling has another level (or two) to hit in the right conditions. If Sterling reaches his ceiling, he could hit a rating of 180. For what it’s worth, that’s the same rating as Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah.
Elias Burke
Financial value rating: 71/100
A four-category summary of the player’s transfer in financial terms — and whether it makes sense for his new club
Market value — 24/25
With a CV as decorated as his, Sterling should not be available on loan at 29. Arsenal are taking advantage of a market opportunity due to Chelsea’s bloated squad to sign a player with experience of winning trophies and playing in the biggest matches for club and country. His performances have declined since moving from City, but under Arteta, Arsenal will be confident he can find form again.
Squad cost — 24/25
Sterling is on a massive wage at Chelsea, but Arsenal will not pay it in full. He provides essential cover for Saka on the right wing but adds elite-level competition on the left wing against Martinelli or Trossard, which could push Arsenal closer to City in the hunt for the Premier League. Without needing to spend big on a transfer fee, Arsenal have a player who was considered among the best in the world in his position just a couple of years ago.
Contract sensibility — 23/25
Arsenal may have preferred Sterling to sign permanently, but a season-long loan deal could work perfectly. It is no secret that Arsenal’s priority target on the left wing is Nico Williams, but they failed to convince the 22-year-old Spain and Athletic Bilbao to join. Sterling turns 30 in December and is in a position to help the club compete for the biggest trophies immediately. If he turns out to be a huge hit, Arsenal could sign Sterling permanently. If they want to move to other targets, including Williams, they will not be burdened with any long-term commitment to Sterling that would affect their ability to operate in that market.
Resale value — 0/25
It’s a season-long loan deal with no obligation or option to buy, so Arsenal have no resale value.
Elias Burke
Risk or reward? 87/100
Is there a history of injury or other problems that could crop up and make this deal a bad one in retrospect? Or does the player come with a clean bill of health? Our expert takes a look.
This has the potential to be a massive hit for Arsenal without the long-term financial implications that a player of Sterling’s calibre typically comes with.
Sterling joins Arsenal after a difficult couple of seasons with Chelsea, but he has the title-winning pedigree and experience of playing in the biggest matches in club and international football that many of his new team-mates at the Emirates Stadium do not. He has won four Premier League titles, has played in the Champions League and European Championship finals, and has scored 123 Premier League goals, primarily from wide positions. The market opportunity to sign a player of this calibre before their 30th birthday without parting with a considerable transfer fee is almost unheard of in the English top flight, let alone on loan.
The 81-cap England international provides experienced cover for Saka on the right but could push to start on the left wing ahead of Martinelli and Trossard. While he demands a large salary for his period at the Emirates, it’s less than he was making at Stamford Bridge and the situation allows Arsenal to operate in the market for a long-term wide attacking option next summer without the potential burden of Sterling’s wage.
Maybe Sterling fails to unseat Arsenal’s current attacking options and plays a bit-part role for the year on a large wage, but his quality, pedigree and experience of scoring important goals on the biggest occasions is too much for the north Londoners to pass up on.
Elias Burke
Overall rating: 378/500
(Photo: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)
