Kari Lake wins, but not with enough to handily beat Ruben Gallego

It wasn’t a great night in Arizona for Donald Trump.

To no one’s surprise, Kari Lake won her U.S. Senate primary, but she isn’t posting anywhere near the numbers she needed to show she’s a contender in November.

Meanwhile, Trump-endorsed Abe Hamadeh appears to have won, but Trump on Saturday stuck a shiv in his back, announcing a surprise last-minute endorsement of Blake Masters, who like J.D. Vance is a a protégé of tech billionaire Peter Thiel.

If the numbers hold, Hamadeh, who lives in Scottsdale, will have a job for life in this solidly Republican West Valley congressional district — no small feat given Masters’ money and his full-on assault targeting Hamadeh’s family, his religious beliefs and even his status as an unmarried, childless adult.

Kari Lake wins, but not by the landslide she needed

As for Lake, she needed to win 60% of the vote to show she can unify Republicans in a way that she was unable to do in 2022, when she lost the governor’s race to Democrat Katie Hobbs.

“If (Pinal County Sheriff Mark) Lamb gets 35% to 40%, that’s a huge problem for Lake,” Republican consultant Barrett Marson told me before the polls closed.

With a large swath of the votes counted, the underfunded, hardly noticed Lamb had 39% of the vote. Lake stood at 55% on early Wednesday — a disappointing number given that she was the presumptive Republican nominee even before she announced she was running for the Senate last year and endorsed by Trump soon after.

Lake needed 60% of the GOP vote to show the D.C. money crowd that she can be competitive against Democrat Ruben Gallego. That she can unite Republicans in a way that no MAGA candidate has been able to do since 2018, resulting in the loss of not one but both of Arizona’s U.S. Senate seats to Democrats.

“Lake’s underwhelming numbers are a bad sign for her general election,” Republican consultant Tyler Montague told me.

Mixed results for MAGA in Maricopa County races

Elsewhere, it was a mixed bag in the battle between MAGA and traditional Republican candidates.

Maricopa County Supervisor Tom Galvin handily defeated his MAGA opponent, former state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita in the northeast Valley.

But in the East Valley, Supervisor Jack Sellers lost to his MAGA opponent, termed-out Chandler Councilman Mark Stewart. That may open the door for Democrat Joel Navarro in November, given the political makeup of this district.

Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell rolled over her Lake-endorsed opponent, Gina Godbehere.

But Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer lost to his MAGA-supported opponent, Rep. Justin Heap.

A disaster for traditional Republicans in statehouse

In the Legislature, meanwhile, it’s shaping up to be a disastrous night for traditional Republicans, as one of the state’s loudest election deniers, former Rep. Mark Finchem, appears to have carpetbagged his way into a Senate seat in ruby red Yavapai County, ousting the more moderate Sen. Ken Bennett.

Bennett was the lone remaining moderating force in the Senate Republican caucus.

Hard-right firebrand Sen. Wendy Rogers is headed to a third term, defeating the term-limited Rep. David Cook.

In Pima County, Sen. Justine Wadsack is trailing former Sen. Vince Leach, a traditional conservative who is hoping to regain the Senate seat he lost in 2022. If Leach’s lead holds, that will likely dash Democrats’ hopes of picking up this seat as part of their strategy to seize control of the state Senate.

But the story of the night is Lake, who didn’t deliver the numbers she needed to be considered a top tier candidate for grabbing a Senate seat.

Kari Lake can win?Not with this firebrand as a friend

Karrin Taylor Robson, her 2022 nemesis, quickly endorsed her late on Tuesday after the results were in, though whether that’s enough to overcome Lake’s likeability problem is still to be determined. Alarm bells should be ringing wildly over the fact that nearly four out of 10 Republican primary voters voted for the guy who barely had a campaign.

“Shocking under performance by @KariLake,” Republican politico Jason Rose posted on Tuesday night.

Actually, not really shocking at all.

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) at @LaurieRobertsaz.

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