Bitcoin price could rise or fall based on Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Bitcoin is holding strong at $73,000, poised for a potential new all-time high just a week before the U.S. elections — an event that many traders anticipate will boost market optimism, irrespective of the outcome.

Eric Beiley, executive managing director of The Beiley Group at Steward Partners, told Quartz in an recent interview that Bitcoin’s surge suggests a potential election victory for Donald Trump, but time will reveal who the 47th President of the United States will be.

Many are already speculating on how Bitcoin might respond to a potential victory by either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Debates are emerging over which outcome would be more favorable for the cryptocurrency in the long run. The growing engagement from both ends of the political spectrum underscores how crypto has become a contentious and pivotal issue in the 2024 election. Here’s what you need to know.

What will happen to Bitcoin if Trump wins?

This election year, former President Donald Trump positioned himself as a “crypto candidate,” actively embracing digital assets as part of his campaign. He even started accepting campaign donations in various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, Dogecoin, and Solana, among others.

Of course, not all crypto enthusiasts are Trump supporters, but many welcome his recent pro-crypto stance. For instance, at a Bitcoin conference, Trump promised to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on his first day in office — a move that resonates strongly with crypto advocates, as Gensler’s policies have often been unpopular in the cryptosphere. Trump further promised to establish a national Bitcoin reserve, an ambitious goal that has captivated many in the crypto community. While he hasn’t specified the details or timeline for such a step, the fact that he’s made Bitcoin a central talking point in his campaign has stirred considerable excitement.

Considering these factors, it’s clear that a Trump victory could drive an immediate surge in Bitcoin’s price, which would uplift the whole crypto market. Still, it’s hard to know what Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory would be under a Trump presidency.

According to Chandra Duggirala, co-founder and CEO of the interoperability-focused crypto platform Portal To Bitcoin, a Trump victory could have varied impacts on Bitcoin in the long run. If Trump wins and the U.S. government starts actively holding Bitcoin, wealth managers might start viewing it as a credible asset, which could accelerate Bitcoin adoption in traditional portfolios, he told Quartz in an email.

“This newfound confidence could result in increased inflows into Bitcoin funds and related investment products, driving up demand and, potentially, its market price,” he added. “The ripple effect could create a rally in Bitcoin prices as global investors follow the U.S.’s lead in integrating Bitcoin into mainstream financial portfolios.”

What will happen to Bitcoin if Harris wins?

On the other hand, Vice President Kamala Harris, who had previously been cautious about discussing cryptocurrencies, recently has begun to address the topic more openly. She has called for stronger regulatory oversight of the crypto market, emphasizing the need for clear rules to ensure consumer protection and financial stability.

Given Kamala Harris’s late and lukewarm response to Bitcoin, many anticipate an immediate dip in leading cryptocurrency’s price if she wins, followed by a possible rebound later.

Duggirala explained to Quartz that a Harris victory would likely indicate a continuation of the current administration’s economic policies, which emphasize increased fiscal spending and progressive taxation. A Harris administration might also implement more stringent regulatory scrutiny, especially concerning private capital and the crypto markets.

Duggirala noted that if high inflation persists alongside ongoing regulatory pressure, assets like Bitcoin and gold could benefit as investors seek ways to preserve their wealth amidst these challenges.

“The scarcity-driven value of Bitcoin could position it as a top choice for those aiming to safeguard their wealth in a potentially inflationary landscape,” he said.

What will happen to Bitcoin if there is a contested election?

Many polls indicate a tight race between Trump and Harris, which could lead to an election outcome fraught with controversy and litigation. During periods of heightened uncertainty, assets characterized by high volatility often see increased trading volumes, benefiting derivatives traders. With its historical price fluctuations, Bitcoin may emerge as a preferred asset for options traders looking to capitalize on potential price swings, Duggirala noted.

“During periods of market distress, Bitcoin has displayed a tendency for sharp price moves, both upward and downward,” he said. “In March 2020, at the height of the pandemic market crash, Bitcoin’s price plummeted by nearly 50% in a matter of days, only to recover and soar to new all-time highs within months.”

If the election results in prolonged uncertainty, options trading on Bitcoin could prove exceptionally profitable. Historically, Bitcoin futures and options volumes surge during periods of heightened market volatility, as witnessed during the bull run from late 2020 to early 2021, Duggirala told Quartz.

For seasoned traders, a contested election presents an excellent opportunity to leverage Bitcoin’s volatility, attracting increased attention to Bitcoin markets globally, he added.