World Series 2024: Aaron Judge’s postseason history doesn’t hint toward a turnaround favorable for the Yankees

NEW YORK — Aaron Judge is the best hitter in baseball, and in a few weeks, he’ll win his second AL MVP award in three seasons. When he’s on, seeing him walk to the batter’s box is an absolute nightmare for opposing pitchers.

Unfortunately, though, since the calendar flipped from September to October and when the Yankees have needed him the most, Judge has been largely absent. As the Yankees return to the Bronx, they need Judge to wake up, or they’ll watch their season come to a bitter end in the World Series against the Dodgers.

The Yankees’ captain is struggling mightily as his team faces a 2-0 series deficit, and it appears that baseball’s leader in home runs has begun to press.

“I’ve definitely got to step up. I’ve got to do my job,” Judge told reporters after Game 2. “Guys around here are doing their job, getting on base. I’m failing them, [not] backing them up. We’ve got to turn it around.”

Judge has not had an October to remember fondly, hitting .150 (6-for-40) with two home runs, seven walks and a whopping 19 strikeouts. Swing-and-miss has always been part of Judge’s game, and he did have 171 strikeouts while putting together one of the best seasons ever by a right-handed hitter.

The problem is that in this postseason, those strikeouts aren’t accompanied by the prodigious power and the 1.159 OPS that Judge carried during the regular season.

What makes Judge special is that when he’s on, getting him out in the strike zone is nearly impossible. The only hope a pitcher usually has is that Judge will expand the zone. And in October, he’s expanding significantly more than he was during the regular season.

“Look, I think swing decisions are part of it. I think everyone’s different in how they get loaded and started and on time, and then your swing comes out,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said after his team’s 4-2 defeat on Saturday in Game 2. “… When I was asked about Anthony [Rizzo], what’s different about him in the playoffs, he’s getting into a good groove, and now he’s in a strong position to make good swing decisions.

“That’s ultimately what hitting is about. It’s getting in the best position to make a good swing decision but also be in a strong position to get a good swing off. Everyone’s different in how they do that, and I think [Judge is] working through that a little bit right now.”

The Dodgers have been doing a good job of getting ahead in the count on Judge, and once they’ve gotten him to two strikes, whether it was Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s splitter, Jack Flaherty’s curveball or Blake Treinen’s sweeper, Judge has been going down swinging.

One of the things that make Judge’s struggles even more frustrating is that Gleyber Torres (.389 OBP) and Juan Soto (.460 OBP) have both been doing a great job of getting on base, setting the table for both Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

What’s worse is that such October woes aren’t uncommon for Judge. In 55 career postseason games, he owns a .199/.304/.436 slash line with 15 homers, and he has struck out in more than 40% of his 211 postseason at-bats.

As Judge and the Yankees prepare for Game 3 on Monday, the time for baseball clichés is over. Yes, hitting a baseball is very difficult, and the pitching in the postseason is even better than during the regular season. But the reality is that the New York Yankees will not win the World Series with their captain playing the way he has been. And now that they face a 2-0 series deficit, that pressure only increases.

“It definitely eats at you,” Judge said. “You want to contribute and help the team, but that’s why you gotta keep working and keep swinging. I can’t sit here and feel bad for myself.

“Nobody’s feeling bad for me.”