2024-07-29 12:25:02
All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes is on the move after the Chicago Cubs and the Tampa Bay Rays agreed to the latest notable swap ahead of Major League Baseball’s July 30 trade deadline. This will, in a sense, be a homecoming of sorts for Paredes, who originally signed with the Cubs as an amateur before later being traded to the Detroit Tigers. (He was then traded to the Rays a few years after that, suggesting he’s used to this whole process.)
As is tradition here at CBS Sports, we’re bringing in the deadline by providing instant analysis on all the biggest deals. That includes handing out a letter grade for both clubs. You can find that, and more, in the space below. First, though, here is the trade in whole:
Now, on to the good stuff.
Cubs grade: B
This trade is intriguing in a few ways, beginning with the fact that the Cubs — the team farther away from a playoff spot — are the ones obtaining the most established player in the deal.
Paredes, 25, had a productive two-plus-season run with the Rays. He hit .237/.340/.458 (126 OPS+) with 67 home runs over the course of 354 games. For reference, the only regular third basemen with a higher OPS+ over that span were Rafael Devers, José Ramírez, Austin Riley, and Manny Machado. Good company? Nay. Great company. Add in how Paredes is under team control through the 2027 season, and it appears the Cubs just obtained one of the best third basemen in the game for the rest of their statistical prime.
It’s not that simple, however, because Paredes is an oddball. His average exit velocity ranks in the 4th percentile and he doesn’t fare much better in other ball-tracking metrics — not exactly what you’d expect to read about someone who should average 20-plus homers per year. He does have a good feel for the zone and for making contact, but the real key to his success is his ability to pull the ball in the air. According to Robert Orr’s database, no player in all the majors pulls a greater share of fly balls than Paredes does. In turn, he’s been able to take full advantage of Tropicana Field’s left-field cutout and dimensions. How will Paredes take to Wrigley Field? Statcast’s estimates, for whatever they’re worth, indicate that he would have five fewer home runs this season and 12 fewer for his career.
There are other questions worth asking about Paredes’ game — like, how will this profile age as he begins to feel the effects of aging? We don’t have the answers to them, and we suspect the Cubs and Rays don’t, either. Even so, we get this deal from both perspectives. The Cubs couldn’t fashion a third baseman out of Morel, but Paredes will be just fine standing at the hot corner. Additionally, Paredes is only about four months older than Morel, yet he’s a good deal more accomplished as a big-league hitter. Does Morel have more upside at the plate? Possibly. Does Paredes seem more likely to offer a starter’s baseline of value between his offense (whatever it looks like in Chicago) and defense? Yes.
You can also scoff at the Cubs, a team that has been talking about selling, making what appears to be a win-now move. We don’t think it’s the best framing of the trade because Paredes isn’t a rental. Nothing would have materially changed if both sides waited until November to get ‘er done. We’re not sure a 3-for-1 deal can count as a “challenge trade” — the Cubs did part with two interesting arms here — but this one comes close enough. View it with that framework in mind, and you can understand why these teams did what they did here.
Rays grade: B
Since the start of July, the Rays have traded away Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Phil Maton, Jason Adam, and now Paredes. Mind you, this kind of sell-off is coming from a team who won 99 games last season and who entered Sunday only a half game worse in playoff positioning than the 1997 Chicago White Sox were when they executed the infamous “White Flag Trade.” Clearly the Powers That Be in St. Petersburg view Ron Schueler as a fearless trailblazer that never got his due. Or, maybe just maybe, they’ve veered so hard into selling to satisfy the wishes of an owner who was bellyaching about payroll back in the spring, when this club fostered more serious competitive aspirations. We simply have no way of knowing which of these scenarios is more likely to be the case.
On the bright side, this particular trade has the Rays potentially gaining two immediate big-league players and losing just one. Does that technically make them the buyer? Whatever the case, we can see a real argument for preferring Tampa Bay’s side of things — especially if one is a skeptic of Paredes and/or a True Believer of Morel and company.
Morel, 25, has been linked to the Rays dating back to at least last winter. More than half a year later, his general profile remains the same: promising bat, not-so-promising glove. Don’t let this season’s uninspiring results fool you; there’s been some real growth to Morel’s offensive game, with him improving upon both his chase and contact rates. He’s still capable of putting a charge into the ball, too, and his 90th percentile exit velocity puts him in company with the likes of Teoscar Hernández and Joc Pederson. Morel strikes us as someone who is a decent bet to an above-average hitter for at least the next few years.
There are two blemishes to Morel’s game. Foremost, he has no defensive home. The Cubs played him all over and he didn’t particularly impress everywhere. The Rays may want to plop him down at second base (or left field, or DH) and say, “that’s that, go hit and we won’t mind the defensive damage.” The other catch is that Morel still does whiff a fair amount, and that, plus his lack of secondary value, will make him volatile as he nears his 30th birthday. Let’s be serious though: Morel won’t be part of the Rays at that point.
Bigge, 26, has made four big-league appearances this season with the Cubs. Given how the Rays are gutting their bullpen, he seems certain to make more heading forward — perhaps immediately. His arsenal includes a rising upper-90s fastball, a devastating slider that has generated 58% whiffs this season, and a few other pitches. If Bigge threw strikes at a more frequent rate, you could almost envision the Rays trying him as a starter. Instead, Bigge and his deceptively short arm stroke — think Pete Fairbanks style — will likely remain in relief, and perhaps sooner than later in a high-leverage role.
Johnson, 22, is a 6-foot-6 righty whom the Cubs popped from Ball State in the 15th round last summer. He’s the latest in a growing trend this deadline of second- and/or third-day draft picks from 2023 who battled their command in college and were traded after showing improved control for a stretch. (Fellow Rays acquisition Brody Hopkins and new Angels prospect George Klassen also fit in that mold.) There are the makings of a good fastball-slider combination here, and it’ll be up to the Rays’ player development staff to get it right.
