Michigan vs. Michigan State score prediction by expert football model

One of college football’s best in-state rivalry games kick off this weekend as Michigan plays host to Michigan State on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Michigan comes in at 4-3 overall and on a two-game losing skid, scoring 24 combined points in that time, and falling to 2-2 in Big Ten play as its offense still lacks an answer at quarterback.

Michigan State scored 17 combined points in its first two conference games, both losses to Ohio State and Oregon, but rebounded with a 12-point win against Iowa, moving to 2-2 in Big Ten games.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Wolverines and the Spartans meet in this rivalry matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Michigan and Michigan State in this Week 9 college football game.

As expected, the models are siding with the Wolverines over the Spartans in this one.

SP+ predicts that Michigan will defeat Michigan State by a projected score of 27 to 14 and will win the game by an expected margin of 13.4 points in the process.

The model gives the Wolverines a strong 80 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Michigan is a 4 point favorite against Michigan State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 38.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -175 and for Michigan State at +150 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors who are taking the Wolverines, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Michigan is getting 59 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 41 percent of wagers project the Spartans will either win the game outright in an upset, or keep the score under 4 points in a loss.

Michigan has been 3.4 points better than opponents when playing games at home this season.

When going on the road, Michigan State is 7.3 points worse than the opposition on average.

But the Wolverines’ average margin has fallen in the past three games, to 7 points worse than opponents in that span.

And the Spartans have been 13.3 points worse than their opponents over that time.

Michigan is 1 point worse than the opposition overall this season, and Michigan State is 5.8 points worse on average in 2024.

Most other analytical models also favor the Wolverines over the Spartans in this one.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Michigan is projected to win the game in 67 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Michigan State as the expected winner in the remaining 33 percent of sims.

Michigan is projected to be 4.4 points better than Michigan State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Michigan is projected to win 5.9 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Wolverines a 68.3 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game.

Michigan State has a win total projection of 6.3 games in ‘24.

And the index gives Sparty a 78.7 percent shot at playing in a bowl game.

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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