Justice Ellison Runs to Victory

Anticipation is high for the Indiana Hoosiers as former head coach Lee Corso and the College GameDay crew arrive in Bloomington for Saturday’s Big Ten clash against the Washington Huskies. Can Curt Cignetti continue his impressive streak, or will the Purple Reign put a chill on the mid-afternoon energy?

Our Washington vs. Indiana preview has everything you need, from up-to-date betting odds to insights on each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.

Washington vs. Indiana Betting Preview

All Washington vs. Indiana odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM Spread
  Indiana -13.5
• Spread
  Indiana -5.5
• Moneyline
  Indiana -230, Washington +190
• Over/Under
  54 points
• Game time
  Noon ET
• Location
  Memorial Stadium | Bloomington, IN
• Predicted Weather at Kick
  64 degrees, mostly sunny, 9 mph winds
• How to Watch
  Big Ten Network

It’s been over 20 years since these two teams last met and even longer since the Huskies flew into Bloomington. While Washington won the last time they clashed, Indiana holds a 2-1 advantage over their new Big Ten foe. Despite an injury to star quarterback Kurtis Rourke, the Hoosiers are the betting favorite for this crucial Big Ten matchup, and it’s easy to understand why.

MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

Indiana hasn’t trailed in a game all season, and it’s allowed them to not only go undefeated through eight weeks, but they’ve covered the spread for six consecutive games since narrowly failing to cover in their season-opener against FIU. Washington has only covered three times (with a push vs. Rutgers) and failed to cover by a country mile in the only game as an underdog.

Washington’s Winning Probability

According to the CFN FPM, Washington has just a 16.5% chance of beating the Hoosiers on Saturday afternoon. It’s worth noting that our metric predicted the Huskies’ defeats to the Washington State Cougars, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, and Iowa Hawkeyes.

• at Indiana: 16.5%
• vs. USC: 49.4%
• at Penn State: 7.2%
• at Oregon: 5.5%
• vs. UCLA: 79.3%

If those win probabilities were to hold true, Washington would end the year with a 5-7 record, a significant downturn in fortunes after reaching the National Championship Game in 2023. However, a difficult season was projected with the transfer portal, NFL, and coaching staff departures. The matchup with the USC Trojans holds the key to potential bowl eligibility.

Indiana’s Winning Probability

Conversely, the CFN FPM gives the Hoosiers an 83.5% chance of beating the Huskies on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has predicted every game of Indiana’s current incredible run, and while the injury to starting quarterback Rourke is suboptimal, it doesn’t necessarily mean the streak ends in Week 9.

• vs. Washington: 83.5%
• at Michigan State: 80.6%
• vs. Michigan: 77.4%
• at Ohio State: 24.7%
• vs. Purdue: 95.1%

If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Hoosiers would reach the clash with the Ohio State Buckeyes with a 10-0 record, something no one would have predicted before the season. Even with a projected defeat to Ryan Day’s team, Indiana should finish the year with an 11-1 record, which could be enough to play in the Big Ten Championship Game, depending on other results.

Prediction for Washington vs. Indiana

When College GameDay picked Bloomington as their Week 9 destination, they likely envisioned a celebration of everything the Hoosiers have accomplished this season—especially the standout play of quarterback Rourke. While his injury casts a shadow over the excitement, do the Huskies have what it takes to spoil the party—and Indiana’s unbeaten streak?

What does this matchup mean for the Hoosiers without Rourke under center? Can Jedd Fisch’s Washington squad claim a much-needed road victory? Who has the upper hand, and where will the pivotal battles play out?

MORE: Latest Kurtis Rourke Update

Rourke’s injury is no minor setback, and the oddsmakers’ response underscores his impact. The 2022 MAC Offensive Player of the Year leads the Big Ten in passing touchdowns (15) and yards per attempt (10.7) and ranks just behind Dillon Gabriel with a 74.6% completion rate. He’s been a key player in Indiana’s 2024 success.

Fortunately, Tayven Jackson has stepped up as the new starter, bringing experience from his five starts in 2023. Most importantly, his mobility gives him the ability to extend plays, and with Indiana’s robust ground game, that extra element could be what the Hoosiers need to edge past Washington in Week 9.

Indiana’s run game doesn’t always get the spotlight, but it’s a force to be reckoned with. The Hoosiers just shredded the Nebraska Cornhuskers with their rushing attack, and they lead the Big Ten in rushing touchdowns by a margin of 10 scores.

That’s right—not 10 touchdowns total, but 10 more than the next team. Only Iowa and Ohio State boast a higher yards-per-carry average, with Indiana powered by the dynamic duo of Justice Ellison and TySon Lawton.

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In each of Washington’s losses this year (to Rutgers, Iowa, and Washington State), they’ve allowed two rushing touchdowns. Only three Big Ten teams have given up more rushing yards per game than the Huskies.

While game analysis goes beyond just matching rush offenses against rush defenses, this matchup may come down to a straightforward formula: Indiana can control the clock, run the ball effectively, and withstand whatever Washington throws at them. Plus, the Huskies are still seeking their first road win of the season.

Prediction: Washington 19, Indiana 30

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