2024-09-27 05:35:03
- Helene is intensifying as it nears its Florida landfall.
- Potentially catastrophic storm surge could occur in Florida’s Big Bend region.
- Potentially historic rainfall flooding, damaging winds and some tornadoes will push inland in the Southeast.
- Those inland threats will be felt in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee.
Hurricane Helene, now at Category 4 intensity, is nearing landfall in Florida tonight, delivering catastrophic, possibly record storm surge, destructive winds and flooding rainfall.
The fast-moving pace of Helene means its dangers will spread well inland. Life-threatening flash flooding, potential record river flooding, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee.
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Here’s the latest status: Helene became the second major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday afternoon, and it’s still intensifying.
Early this evening, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum winds had increased to 130 mph, Category 4 intensity. Helene is currently centered 110 miles west of Tampa, Florida. It’s moving quickly north-northeast at 23 mph.
Water levels are rising along the Florida coast as a nighttime high tide is now approaching and the surge from Helene is moving in, including along Tampa Bay.
Bands of heavy rain associated with the hurricane and another weather system continue to pummel parts of Florida and the Southeast U.S., prompting occasional flash flood and tornado warnings.
Winds have gusted up to 72 mph at Miami’s Opa Locka Airport, 73 mph at St. Petersburg’s Albert Whitted Airport and 70 mph in Sarasota, so far. Over 45 reports of flash flooding have been received by the National Weather Service since Thursday morning, from Georgia to Virginia.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued tornado watches into the evening from the central and southern Florida Peninsula into parts of southern and eastern Georgia and middle and southern South Carolina.
Current Radar And Alerts
(Watches and warnings are issued by NOAA.)
Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 310 miles from the center of Helene, making it a large hurricane. That large size and its increasing forward speed are the reasons Helene poses such a major storm surge danger at the coast as well as widespread high wind and flooding rain threats well inland.
Watches and warnings in effect: A hurricane warning is in effect from Florida’s Big Bend and Nature Coast into middle Georgia, including from Tallahassee to Albany and Macon. Storm surge warnings extend from Mexico Beach southward to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
As shown in the map below, tropical storm warnings cover almost the entire rest of Florida and Georgia not covered by hurricane warnings, all of South Carolina and much of western North Carolina.
These alerts mean hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge conditions are expected in these areas as Helene moves.
Interests in the warned areas should implement their hurricane plans and heed any advice from local emergency managers.
Watches and Warnings
(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. The forecast path of Helene is shown by the gray cone.
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Here is the timeline:
- Thursday: Helene is expected to reach its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane in the eastern Gulf and then make a landfall somewhere along the Big Bend of Florida as a large, intense hurricane Thursday night. Its impacts (surge, winds, rain) will be felt far from that landfall point, typical for larger storms.
Helene is likely to be the strongest hurricane on record to landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region, stronger than 2023’s Idalia, which made a Category 3 landfall with 115 mph winds and a pressure of 950 millibars.
- Friday: Helene will sweep quickly northward through the Southeast toward the southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley with strong, possibly damaging wind gusts, flooding rain and isolated tornadoes.
(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
Current Storm Status And Projected Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.
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US Impacts
Storm Surge
The National Hurricane Center’s storm surge forecast is shown below.
A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected along and to the east of where Helene’s center makes landfall in Florida’s Big Bend, Apalachee Bay and Nature Coast. Surge inundation of 10 to 20 feet above ground level is forecast in these areas. For Cedar Key, that would top a record storm surge set 128 years ago, and could be at least twice the surge inundation from Hurricane Idalia in August 2023 (6.84 feet).
Given Helene’s large wind field, significant storm surge flooding is also expected in the Tampa-St. Pete-Sarasota metro areas that is expected to be several feet higher than what was experienced over a year ago with Hurricane Idalia. That peak in water levels is expected around midnight, with water levels slowly falling Friday morning.
If you live near the coast, know your evacuation zone and heed any orders from local emergency management.
Winds
Helene is a large, strong and fast-moving hurricane. That means its strong winds cover a larger area and will push farther inland than usual.
Hurricane-force winds (74-plus-mph sustained winds) are expected along a stretch of Florida’s Panhandle northward into southern and middle Georgia Thursday night, possibly as far north as the far southern suburbs of the Atlanta metro area. Downed trees and power outages will likely be widespread in these areas, and even some structural damage is possible.
NWS Peak Wind Threat
(This map from the National Weather Service shows the potential strongest winds (likely in gusts) that could occur. Areas in red or purple colors are most probable to see hurricane-force capable of more widespread tree damage, power outages and at least some damage to buildings. Areas in yellow and orange could see at least some sporadic downed trees and power outages. )
Tropical-storm-force winds at least in gusts (39 to 73 mph) could then push well inland into much of northern Georgia, eastern Alabama, South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee Thursday night into Friday. Downed trees and power outages are likely in these areas. This includes the Atlanta metro area.
Rainfall
Rainfall from Helene could trigger catastrophic flooding in parts of the Southeast.
That’s because heavy rain already soaked the region on Wednesday ahead of Helene’s arrival from parts of Georgia, including the Atlanta metro area, into the southern Appalachians.
Helene’s bands of heavy rain will fall on those increasingly saturated areas into Friday.
A rare “high risk” flood outlook has been issued by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center from northern Florida into a large part of Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina. This means flooding could be life threatening in these areas.
In the southern Appalachians, this heavy rain in addition to the hilly and mountainous terrain is a prime setup for destructive, life-threatening rainfall flooding and landslides. Major to locally record flooding is possible on some rivers, including the French Broad in western North Carolina near Asheville, where it could rival the historic 1916 flood.
Total rainfall in parts of North Georgia into upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina could reach 20 inches.
If that wasn’t enough, the increasingly soaked ground in the Southeast may also make it easier for Helene’s winds to topple trees.
Elsewhere, a broad area of at least 3 inches of rainfall is expected from Florida to the central Appalachians and westward into Kentucky, Tennessee and parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley. At least local flash flooding is possible in these areas.
Rainfall Forecast
(While not all of the rainfall shown above is from this tropical system, this should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.)
Tornado Threat
Many landfalling hurricanes also produce a tornado threat to the right, or in this case east, of where the center tracks.
Parts of Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina have the greatest chance of a few tornadoes through early Friday morning.
The chance of a few tornadoes may extend into eastern parts of South and North Carolina and southern Virginia on Friday.
