2024-10-26 08:55:03
On Friday night, the Mountain West Conference takes center stage as the 6-1 UNLV Rebels host the 5-1 Boise State Broncos in a game with enormous implications for the College Football Playoff.
Boise State holds a 4-0 all-time advantage over UNLV, including a 44-20 win in the Mountain West Championship last season.
Running back Ashton Jeanty is the headliner in this massive matchup, but we have our eyes on another skill player in this game whose props hold plenty of value.
Here’s a breakdown of Friday night’s bout between Boise State and UNLV, along with a prediction and best bet.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | -3.5 (-105) | -165 | o64 (-110) |
| UNLV | +3.5 (-115) | +140 | u64 (-110) |
Jeanty has set the college football world on fire this season, rushing for 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns in just six games. That puts him on pace to break Barry Sanders’ records, which have stood for 36 years.
He is tied for first in this week’s Heisman betting odds with Miami’s Cam Ward (+200, FanDuel), and this game will provide a tremendous opportunity to showcase his talents.
UNLV has been respectable against the run, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, which ranks 25th in the country. Linebacker Jackson Woodard, the favorite for the MWC Defensive Player of the Year award, is the Rebels’ leading tackler (63 total, 8.5 tackles for loss).
However, Jeanty was dominant in that matchup last year, rushing 21 times for 153 yards and a touchdown, and the Rebels allowed more than 300 total rushing yards for the game.
If defensive coordinator Barry Odom can find a way to at least slow down Jeanty on early downs, UNLV might have success forcing Maddux Madsen into mistakes; he has more turnover-worthy plays (seven) than big-time throws (three) this season.
The Rebels rank in the top 20 in Pro Football Focus coverage grades, and transfer Jalen Catalon has been dominant at safety.
After a bizarre midseason NIL snafu, the Rebels switched from Matthew Sluka to Hajj-Malik Williams as their starting quarterback.
It’s unclear why Williams wasn’t starting to begin with; he’s the far superior option, completing 70.5% of his passes and averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, compared to a 43.8% completion rate and 6.6 yards per attempt for Sluka.
Wide receiver Ricky White has thrived with Williams, averaging 122 receiving yards per game since the switch was made.
The Broncos rank just 102nd in pass defense EPA and 122nd in tackling grades, so White should be able to generate plenty of explosive plays through the air to combat what should be a high-scoring Boise State offense.
Boise has allowed just 2.9 yards per rush attempt on the ground, which ranks eighth in the country, so I wouldn’t bank on the Rebels’ backfield having a ton of success.
Kylin James, Jai’Den Thomas and Greg Burrell average more than five yards per carry, but this looks like a matchup where UNLV will need to lean on its passing game.
The line for this game opened with the Broncos as a slight favorite, and the market has been moving in their direction all week. Boise State is now favored by 3.5 points, and I can’t help but be interested in the home dog catching more than a field goal. However, two key factors lead me to pass on the spread.
Boise State has played a significantly tougher schedule; its strength of schedule ranks 65th, according to ESPN, while UNLV lags at 99th. The Broncos will be the most formidable team the Rebels have seen all season, while Jeanty nearly led his team to a road upset over Oregon.
In addition, the Broncos have a notable rest advantage in this game. The Rebels will be playing on a short week, from Saturday to Friday, while BSU is coming off a bye week with nearly two full weeks to prepare for this critical matchup.
Instead, I’m looking to back White in this game. You can create a same-game parlay on FanDuel with White to record 80+ receiving yards and score a touchdown at -125 odds, which looks like tremendous value considering he’s hit those marks in all four games with Williams as his quarterback.
Best bet: Ricky White 80+ receiving yards and a touchdown (-125, FanDuel)
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
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