WNBA playoffs odds, picks, best bets

Domination. That’s the best way to describe the Connecticut Sun’s Game 1 performance against the Indiana Fever. Connecticut won by 24 points at home against one of the hottest teams over the past month.

The Sun got incredible outings from two-way star Alyssa Thomas and Marina Mabrey, who knocked down five 3-pointers on a 42% clip off the bench.

Further, the Sun shut down star rookie point guard Caitlin Clark, holding her to just 4-of-17 shooting.

Will the Sun string together another awe-inspiring outing behind elite defensive pressure on Clark, or will the superhuman rookie find a way to extend the series for the Fever?

Fever vs. Sun odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Fever	+6 (-110)	+235	o163.5 (-110)
Sun	-6 (-110)	-290	u163.5 (-110)

Fever vs. Sun prediction

(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Connecticut ranks first in defensive rating, first in opponent points in the paint, first in opponent fastbreak points, first in opponent turnover percentage, fourth in opponent effective field goal percentage and fourth in defensive rebounding percentage.

The Sun’s exceptional defense was on display for Game 1’s entire 40 minutes.

They held an Indiana team that has shot 47% from the field and 40% from behind the arc since returning from the extended break to a meager 40/21/75 shooting split.

DeWanna Bonner was sensational in defending Clark, while Thomas put up a triple-double, and Mabrey finished with a playoff career-high 27 points off the bench.

Indiana has very little playoff experience, which showed toward the end of the first half and the entirety of the fourth quarter.

Still, don’t expect the Fever to shoot as poorly in Game 2; they had the WNBA’s best post-break offense for a reason.

As usual, Connecticut’s defense was great, but Indiana had plenty of opportunities and open looks that it failed to convert.

Additionally, the Sun shot close to 50% from the field and 50% from behind the arc, which is partially due to Indiana’s matador-like defense.

However, it is borderline unreasonable to expect a team that ranked eighth (out of 12 teams) in effective field goal percentage to have another lights-out shooting night in Game 2.

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Fever vs. Sun pick

The Sun opened as seven-point favorites but the line has since been bet down to six.

While I would prefer a three-possession spread, in this do-or-die spot, six points is still too wide for a Fever team that has been one of the best in the W over the past month. 

Pick: Fever +6 (-110, Caesars)