MLB odds, picks, bets Wednesday

Editor’s note: This story was updated early Wednesday afternoon after Yankees scheduled starter Nestor Cortes was revealed to be undergoing an MRI on his elbow, which would likely affect the pitching matchup. The original bet was for Under 7.5 runs at +100 odds at FanDuel.

The Orioles clinched admission back to the postseason with their 5-3 defeat of the division-leading Yankees on Tuesday, but that doesn’t mean the rest of their final series with one another won’t matter.

Zach Eflin faced the Yankees three times previously this year, but Wednesday will be his first as an Oriole since getting shipped from Tampa Bay at the MLB trade deadline.

Although Eflin is 0-2 facing New York in those starts, he was burdened by the Rays’ underwhelming run support and discombobulated fielding. 

He still maintained a 2.50 ERA throughout 18 innings against the Yankees and went 3-0 in his strikeout prop, recording at least five in each meeting. 

Eflin has cashed a profitable return in 2024 when his line has been set at 4.5 line, as he’s cleared that number in just about 60 percent of his starts.

What’s most intriguing is that Eflin has been more vulnerable to earned runs on the road versus at home. Yet, his strikeout per nine rate has remained even keel with over seven in both sides of the split, as per FanGraphs.

The steady veteran was a snug fit as the No. 3 arm in a top-heavy rotation that has been plagued with season-ending injuries, but his most coveted attribute to O’s management is how seldom he walks. 

Eflin’s acumen for throwing strikes consistently has pumped out a 2.9 percent walk rate, his career best in a stat category he’s consistently conquered. 

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The Yankees have walked more than any other team in baseball, according to Statcast. 

Let’s stick with Eflin to keep the healthy strikeout trend going against the pinstripes as the O’s tune up for the postseason. 

THE PLAY: Zach Eflin Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-146, FanDuel)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.