2024-08-26 23:45:02
Things never quite go according to script in New York. Serena Williams entered the 2015 US Open ready to accomplish the only thing she hadn’t: a calendar Grand Slam. Instead, she lost to Roberta Vinci in the semis, a player against whom she had never even dropped a set. Novak Djokovic tried the same in 2021 and wobbled all the way to the finals before he got blown out in straight sets by Daniil Medvedev.
If a player is going to make an out-of-nowhere run at a Slam, it’ll probably be in Queens. Over the past 15 years, 18 players have won their first and only Slam title (to date): 10 at the US Open and eight at the other three Slams (Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon) combined. For seven straight years, either the men’s or women’s champion (or, in 2021, both) was a first-timer.
The favorites list heading into this year’s New York fortnight is a familiar one: Carlos Alcaraz, Djokovic and Jannik Sinner — aka the winners of the past nine Slams (and the 2024 Olympic gold and silver medals) — are the betting favorites on the men’s side, while Aryna Sabalenka (the winner of two straight Australian Opens and a semifinalist at three straight US Opens) and Iga Swiatek (the 2022 US Open winner and five-time Slam champ) lead the way on the women’s side. That all makes perfect sense. But the real favorite is absolute chaos. Let’s talk about some of the biggest and most interesting names in this year’s field.
Note: Within each section below, players are listed in order of their ESPN BET title odds.
Carlos Alcaraz
ESPN BET odds: +185 | Tennis Abstract odds: 14%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Hubert Hurkacz or No. 10 Alex De Minaur (quarterfinals)
The No. 3 seed, Alcaraz’s odds got a little bit worse after he landed in the same half of the draw as Sinner for the third straight Slam, but he’s won 42 of his past 45 Slam matches, two in a row at Slams against both Djokovic and Sinner. Alcaraz is the current master of the best-of-five-sets format, and if he manages to win the US Open this year, he would become the first man to ever win five Slam titles before his 22nd birthday.
Novak Djokovic
ESPN BET odds: +210 | Tennis Abstract odds: 29%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Andrey Rublev or No. 8 Grigor Dimitrov (quarterfinals)
Not that he needs the help, but for the second straight Slam, Djokovic got an incredible favorable draw. The three biggest threats to what would be his 25th Slam title and fifth US Open win are probably Alcaraz, Sinner and Medvedev, the 2021 champion; and they’re all on the other side of the bracket. Djokovic might still have to deal with No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev or No. 8 Casper Ruud — both past US Open finalists — in the semis, but he’s a combined 4-0 against those two in best-of-fives, and he’s brimming with confidence following his Paris Olympic gold medal.
Aryna Sabalenka
ESPN BET odds: +225 | Tennis Abstract odds: 19%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Qinwen Zheng (quarterfinals)
Her French Open quarterfinal loss to Mirra Andreeva ended a run of six straight Slam semifinals, and a shoulder injury kept her out of Wimbledon and the Olympics. But the defending US Open runner-up is 16-3 in this tournament over the past three years. She’s won two straight titles at the other hard-court Slam, and she rolled through Swiatek and Jessica Pegula to win the Cincinnati title earlier this month without dropping a set. All of that spells “FAVORITE” in very bright lights.
2:21
Sinner on why he shook up his staff after positive doping tests
Jannik Sinner discusses avoiding a suspension for his positive tests for a banned substance and explains the decisions he made to shake up his staff.
Jannik Sinner
ESPN BET odds: +375 | Tennis Abstract odds: 42%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Daniil Medvedev (quarterfinals)
Between lingering hip issues, the controversy surrounding his positive doping test and an absolutely tough draw this year, he might have to go through each of the past three champions (Medvedev, Alcaraz, Djokovic) in succession to win his first US Open. Sinner’s title odds have sunk considerably of late, but he’s 48-5 in 2024, won the 1000-level event in Cincinnati last week and is still ranked No. 1 in the world. Not exactly an underdog.
Iga Swiatek
ESPN BET odds: +340 | Tennis Abstract odds: 36%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Pegula (quarterfinals)
Because of how high she’s set the bar, things feel a bit off for the world No. 1 at the moment. Despite being a downright Rafael Nadal-like presence on clay, she was upset by Zheng at the 2024 Olympics, and she’s lost three of her past 12 matches, which for Swiatek is rather catastrophic. Her side of the bracket also includes four of the top six seeds. But at worst, the five-time Slam champion is going to be the No. 2 favorite in basically any tournament she enters.
Coco Gauff
ESPN BET odds: +800 | Tennis Abstract odds: 5.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Barbora Krejcikova or No. 9 Maria Sakkari (quarterfinals)
From mid-July 2023 through the first week of Wimbledon 2024 in early July, Gauff was a whopping 59-14 with four titles, rising as high as No. 2 in the world. But she’s just 4-4 since. Things didn’t go well for Gauff in a fourth-round Wimbledon loss to Emma Navarro , and it doesn’t appear she’s gotten it all the way back yet. She double-faulted in losses in both Toronto and Cincinnati, and she has to hope that returning to the scene of her greatest triumph (in 2023) gets her back in the right frame of mind.
Jessica Pegula
ESPN BET odds: +1200 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: Swiatek (quarterfinals)
If we are to see another first-time Slam champion in New York, why not Pegula? She’s the No. 5 betting favorite among the women, and she reached the quarterfinals there in 2022. The 30-year-old has won only five matches in her last three Slams, and she missed two months with a neck injury this spring. But she played her way back into form this summer, winning nine of 10 matches in Toronto and Cincinnati. Unlike many top players, she heads to New York with obvious momentum.
Danielle Collins
ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.9%
First potential top-10 opponent: Pegula (fourth round)
After announcing that she would be retiring at the end of 2024, Collins won 15 consecutive matches, two titles and rose as high as ninth in the world. But since reaching the finals in Strasbourg in May, she’s gone just 7-5, and last week she lost her only post-Olympics match, to Erika Andreeva in Monterrey. Her fifth gear is as good as almost anyone’s if she can shift into it one last time.
Madison Keys
ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: Sabalenka (fourth round)
Keys has reached six Slam semifinals in her career, and five were on hard courts (three in New York). Just last year, she came within a heartbreaking third-set tiebreak of her second US Open finals appearance. She’s won 17 of her past 21 complete matches, too, and two of her losses were to Swiatek on clay (which barely counts). This all seems encouraging. Less encouraging: She had to retire from each of her past two matches, with a hamstring injury at Wimbledon and a thigh injury in Toronto. She’s a threat if she’s 100%, but that’s a mighty big “if” at the moment.
Taylor Fritz
ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Casper Ruud (fourth round)
American men are in a 21-year Slam title drought (Andy Roddick, 2003 US Open), but they have five players in the top 20 at the moment. Might one make a run? And might it be Fritz? He’s been in the ATP top 15 for nearly 2½ straight years, and he’s made the quarterfinals of three of the past four Slams. He landed in Zverev’s quarter, which is probably the friendliest place to be. He’s been so steady, but can he get over the quarterfinal hump?
Frances Tiafoe
ESPN BET odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: Djokovic (fourth round)
After a frustrating year in 2023, the US Open semifinalist in 2022 jumped back into the ATP top 20 with a run to the Cincinnati finals. Over the last year, he’s 16-8 in the United States and 14-19 outside the U.S. He didn’t score a good draw — he could face Ben Shelton in the third round and Djokovic in the fourth — but odds are solid that the best version of Tiafoe will again come out in New York.
Sebastian Korda
ESPN BET odds: +6600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: Alcaraz (fourth round)
Winter and spring weren’t kind to the 24-year-old; following a third-round exit at Roland Garros, he was just 15-13 in 2024. But he found a rhythm in grass court season and continued it on American home soil. He’s 16-5 since June, he won the title in Washington, and he reached the semifinals in Montreal. We’ve been waiting for another Korda run since the 2023 Australian Open; is now the time?
Tommy Paul
ESPN BET odds: +8000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: Sinner (fourth round)
Like Fritz, Paul has developed into an ultra-steady pro, slowly fixing one weakness at a time and spending most of 2023-24 in the ATP top 20. He battles top pros well, and his overall athleticism is top-notch. Landing in the Sinner/Medvedev quarter probably assures that this won’t be his longest Slam run, but he has officially turned himself into a player to be reckoned with for any opponent with title ambitions.
Ben Shelton
ESPN BET odds: +8000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: Djokovic (fourth round)
After reaching both the Australian Open quarterfinals and US Open semis last year, Shelton has been waiting for a similar breakthrough in 2024. He’s played well as a favorite, but since beating Sinner and Paul last October, he’s lost his last eight matches against top-20 opponents. With Tiafoe potentially looming in the third round (and Djokovic after that), now would be a good time to end that streak.
Others: Amanda Anisimova (+4000), Emma Navarro (+2800), Sloane Stephens (+8000)
Alexander Zverev
ESPN BET odds: +900 | Tennis Abstract odds: 4.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: Ruud (quarterfinals)
Zverev leads the way among first Slam title candidates. Per both ESPN BET and Tennis Abstract, the 2020 US Open finalist (and 2024 French Open finalist) is the No. 4 favorite in the men’s draw — No. 2 on Djokovic’s side. But the final step in his career progression has remained elusive to date. The five-set loss to Alcaraz in the French Open final sent him to 2-10 all-time in five-setters against top-20 foes. It’s hard to win a Slam without being able to go the distance.
Daniil Medvedev
ESPN BET odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 4.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: Sinner (quarterfinals)
His draw is awful, but few embrace competition like Medvedev. He’s won four of his past six five-setters against top-20 foes, beat Sinner at Wimbledon, Alcaraz in last year’s US Open and has reached the finals of this tournament three times in five years. Even if he loses to one of the favorites, he’s not going to make it easy on them.
Naomi Osaka
ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Jelena Ostapenko (first round)
The betting odds (she’s tied for the No. 6 favorite, per ESPN BET) are a reminder of her upside. She’s a two-time US Open champ and four-time Slam winner, after all. However, her Tennis Abstract odds (virtually 0.0%) are a reminder of what she’s still waiting to accomplish in her comeback. She’s just 18-16 in 2024 since returning to the tour after giving birth in 2023. That she’s 6-6 against top-20 opponents suggests she can still play at a high level; that she’s 4-4 against opponents outside the top 70 shows that consistency remains a massive issue. Like Gauff, she now returns to a happy venue. Is that enough to overcome an absolutely brutal draw (Ostapenko in the first round, then maybe 2023 semifinalist Karolina Muchova in the second)?
Qinwen Zheng
ESPN BET odds: +2800 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.7%
First potential top-10 opponent: Sabalenka (quarterfinals)
Zheng won 56% of her WTA matches in 2022 and finished the year ranked 28th. She won 64% of her matches last year and finished 15th and 71% of her matches in 2024. And despite getting no points for winning the 2024 Olympic gold medal, she’s up to No. 7. A player’s trajectory is rarely that steadily upward, but the 21-year old is brimming with confidence and now returns to New York, where she beat Ons Jabeur to reach her first Slam quarterfinal last year.
Casper Ruud
ESPN BET odds: +6600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: Zverev (quarterfinals)
Ruud does things his way. He all but skips grass-court season. He plays as many clay tournaments as possible, but he also shows up in big matches. He’s 7-3 against top-15 opponents this year, including a couple of hard-court wins. He reached the 2022 US Open final against Alcaraz and had him on the ropes for quite a bit of it. He is easy to underestimate, and he’s in Zverev’s quarter, aka the best place to be.
Others: Felix Auger-Aliassime (2021 semifinalist, +8000), Bianca Andreescu (2019 champion, +5000), Victoria Azarenka (three-time finalist, +4000), Leylah Fernandez (2021 finalist, +6600), Caroline Garcia (2022 semifinalist, +8000), Karen Khachanov (2022 semifinalist, +8000), Karolina Muchova (2023 semifinalist, +4000), Jelena Ostapenko (2023 quarterfinalist, +5000), Emma Raducanu (2021 champion, +4000), Andrey Rublev (four-time quarterfinalist, +4000), Maria Sakkari (2021 semifinalist, +4000), Dominic Thiem (2020 champion, +30000), Stan Wawrinka (2016 champion, +50000), Caroline Wozniacki (two-time finalist, +5000)
Elena Rybakina
ESPN BET odds: +900 | Tennis Abstract odds: 14.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: Jasmine Paolini or Ostapenko (quarterfinals)
It’s odd thinking of the No. 4 player in the world as a long shot, but Rybakina has had an odd year. She has battled illnesses and withdrawn or retired in multiple tournaments. She has lost five matches at 6-4 or deeper in the third set, she has played only once since Wimbledon (an upset loss to Leylah Fernandez), and she just parted ways with her coach. Rybakina is 2-2 against the two best players in the world (Swiatek and Sabalenka), and she’s 10-3 against the top 20. When she’s dialed in, she’s just about the best in the world. But the missteps make her unpredictable.
Mirra Andreeva
ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: Swiatek (fourth round)
She beat Sabalenka on her way to the French Open semifinals just a month after her 17th birthday in early June, then went 0-2 in grass-court season. She won a small July event in Romania, went out in the first round in the 2024 Olympics and then beat Navarro and Paolini and took Swiatek to 7-5 in the third set in Cincinnati. Andreeva is not yet consistent enough to find herself in the top 10, but there’s almost no doubt that she’ll get there. Her serve is improving rapidly — she has no definitive weaknesses — and she might get another shot at Swiatek in the fourth round.
Barbora Krejcikova
ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: Sakkari (fourth round)
In the spring Krejcikova was dealing with injuries and dreadful form and lost seven of nine matches. But if you just keep swinging, good things can happen. The 28-year old won three three-setters, including one over Rybakina, en route to a shocking Wimbledon title, her second Slam. Then she reached the 2024 Olympic quarterfinals as well. She hasn’t played since, but she’s a potential future Hall of Famer and a threat on any surface.
Jasmine Paolini
ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: Ostapenko (fourth round)
What a summer it’s been for Paolini. She beat Rybakina and Andreeva on the way to the French Open finals, then backed it up with a Wimbledon final run as well. She teamed with Sara Errani to win doubles gold in Paris, too. At 5-foot-4, she looks like a perpetual underdog, but she’s now fifth in the world, she’s split four matches against top-10 opponents, and she got a navigable draw. Paolini couldn’t make another final, could she?
Others: Paula Badosa (+2500), Matteo Berrettini (+5000), Alex De Minaur (+8000), Grigor Dimitrov (+6600), Hubert Hurkacz (+6600), Anna Kalinskaya (+3300), Daria Kasatkina (+5000), Linda Noskova (+8000), Holger Rune (+4000), Diana Shnaider (+5000), Elina Svitolina (+4000), Stefanos Tsitsipas (+4000), Donna Vekic (+6600)
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