Is the game over? How ‘garbage time’ became a metaphor for China’s economic woes

In Chinese social media discourse and WeChat feeds, a new term has emerged that reflects current sense of economic stagnation and societal despair: “garbage time of history“. Coined by essayist Hu Wenhui in 2023, this phrase draws an analogy from sports, where “garbage time” refers to the final moments of a game when the outcome is already decided. Hu’s concept refers to an epoch when a nation, much like a team in a losing game, seems to be merely running out the clock—stagnating, rather than collapsing.
As China grapples with its most significant economic downturn in decades, the term has taken on a life of its own.It resonates across social media, infiltrates everyday conversations, and provides a sharp critique of the country’s present trajectory under President Xi Jinping. The result is a sentiment that hovers like a storm cloud over the so-called “Chinese century,” a vision of national prosperity now dimmed by realities of stagnation and systemic inertia.
Historical parallels and modern pessimism
Hu Wenhui’s analogy reaches back to the Soviet Union under Leonid Brezhnev, a period defined by stagnation after its ill-fated invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Just as the Soviet Union’s decline was a drawn-out affair, with little hope of recovery, Hu argues that modern China could be entering its own “garbage time.” In this light, he draws comparisons to earlier periods of Chinese decline, such as the late Ming Dynasty under the Wanli Emperor in 1587—a time when the empire, once vibrant and expansive, was visibly in decay but had yet to fall.
Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, notes, many Chinese see no hope for economic recovery as long as the country adheres to the same policies that led to the slump in the first place. “Many in China are convinced their country is trapped in a similarly futile dead end, its prospects unlikely to brighten as long as its direction remains unchanged,” Pei wrote in a column in Bloomberg.
An economy stuck in limbo
The root of this pessimism is grounded in China’s current economic woes. The collapse of the real estate sector has shaken the middle class, eroding its wealth and curbing consumer spending. Mortgage debt has become a stranglehold on millions of households, while unemployment rates rise, particularly among young people. The result is a widespread “negative wealth effect,” where diminished financial security stifles consumption, exacerbating the very economic malaise it seeks to escape.

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Beyond economics
But the malaise, as Pei rightly points out, goes beyond economics. In the late 1990s, China faced far worse economic conditions, with tens of thousands of state-owned enterprises liquidated and millions of workers laid off. Yet optimism persisted because citizens believed in the competence of reformist leaders, such as Zhu Rongji, who guided China through these difficulties. Today, that faith has eroded. The centralized, rigid leadership under Xi Jinping leaves little room for policy reversals or flexibility, and many Chinese see the current state of affairs as a dead end.
“The phrase “garbage time of history” thus is a thinly veiled dig at Xi’s open-ended rule, implying that this sorry state of affairs will not change as long as he stays in power,” Pei said.
A cultural shift towards resignation
The rise of the “garbage time of history” as a term of discontent reflects a deeper societal shift. China’s younger generations, faced with economic prospects that seem to dwindle by the day, have adopted terms like “lying flat”, a rejection of societal pressures to achieve in a hyper-competitive environment. Where previous generations saw hope and opportunity in the face of hardship, today’s youth express resignation and frustration. It is no longer about striving for success but rather surviving in an unyielding system that offers little chance for upward mobility.
The feeling is compounded by high-profile tragedies, such as the suicide of a young investment banker who reportedly took his life after being overwhelmed by financial pressures. Such incidents have become symbols of a society grappling with immense pressures in a system that appears increasingly indifferent to individual struggles.

Puhback against “garbage time”
Predictably, the Chinese state has not taken kindly to the viral spread of Hu Wenhui’s concept. State media has moved swiftly to denounce the term as defeatist and misleading. The official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party‘s Beijing branch published a 3,000-character rebuttal titled “‘History’s Garbage Time’? True or False?” The piece categorically dismissed the phrase, insisting that it is a “false proposition not worth refuting.”
Other state-backed commentators have followed suit, dismissing the notion of “garbage time” as a product of overly pessimistic “literary youth” who have misinterpreted China’s socio-economic landscape through a Western lens. Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University, wrote an article lambasting the term, describing it as more dangerous than the “lying flat theory” because it completely denies China’s current development progress.
There is no doubt that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faces a critical juncture as it surpasses the lifespan of the Soviet Union. The Soviet regime’s collapse was not a mere coincidence; it entered its own “garbage time of history” in the mid-1970s when Soviet leaders refused to adopt much-needed economic and political reforms. The CCP must learn from this historical lesson to prevent a similar downfall.
“The CCP surely doesn’t want to meet the same fate. To avoid it, Xi and the party will have to rethink their game plan,” Pei said.
(With inputs from agencies)