Mexico’s governing coalition gets 73% of seats in Congress after winning just 60% of votes

MEXICO CITY — Mexico’s electoral institute voted Friday to give the governing Morena party and its allies about 73% of seats in the lower house of Congress, though the coalition won less than 60% of the votes in the June 2 elections.

The ruling, which can be challenged in court, would give the governing coalition the two-thirds majority it needs for the Chamber of Deputies to approve changes in Mexico’s constitution. If the ruling stands, Morena and it allies would have about 364 seats in the 500-seat body.

Critics said that would give Morena more power in Congress than it won at the voting booth.

The dispute involves a law that assigns some seats in Congress on the basis of proportional representation. That was designed to give smaller parties some seats in Congress, based on their national vote percentage, even if they couldn’t win individual congressional district races.

But the law also stipulates that the proportional seats can’t be used to give any party a majority in Congress.

Morena apparently got around that by “lending” some of its winning congressional district candidates to two allied smaller parties. The smaller parties aren’t subject to the no-majority rule, but they vote in lockstep with Morena.

The institute’s governing council voted that proportional representation rules apply only to parties individually and without taking into account the effect that might have on a majority coalition.

While Morena and its allies fell short of a two-thirds majority in the Senate, whose approval is also needed for constitutional changes, the coalition fell short only by two or three seats in that body and could feasibly win the needed votes from a smaller party.

Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his successor, fellow Morena member Claudia Sheinbaum, have vowed to use the two-thirds majority to pursue 20 constitutional changes, including making all judges run for election.

Critics say electing judges would undermine the independence of the judiciary branch in favor of even greater control for the governing party.

The proposal has spurred criticism from investors and financial institutions and the United States ambassador to Mexico in recent days.

On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley downgraded its recommendation for investing in Mexico, saying the changes would “increase risk.” In an analysis report, Citibanamex warned that passage of the proposal could end in the “cancellation of liberal democracy.”

On Thursday, U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar said the proposed changes pose a risk to Mexico’s democracy and that they threaten “the historic commercial relationship” between the two countries.

In addition, the federal courts have been mostly shut down by a court employee strike that began Monday to protest the judicial proposal. Judges and magistrates joined the walkout Wednesday.

Among other constitutional proposals, Morena is pushing a change that would essentially do away with all of Mexico’s independent oversight and regulatory bodies. The party says they are a waste of money, and that oversight responsibilities should be given to government departments instead, essentially allowing them to police themselves.

López Obrador has tried to push his pet infrastructure projects through — mostly railways and oil refineries — without oversight, regulation or environmental impact statements, but he was frequently met with court challenges. Changing the constitution would sweep those obstacles away.

López Obrador leaves office Sept. 30, but Sheinbaum — who won the June 2 election to become Mexico’s first female president — has vowed to continue all of his policies.