2024-10-24 11:30:03
In the summer of 2023, when I was visiting with Los Angeles Rams general manager Les Snead, I theorized the idea of the team potentially being close to a rebuild — due to the age or uncertainty of what I dubbed as their franchise-defining “trinity” of head coach Sean McVay, quarterback Matthew Stafford and defensive tackle Aaron Donald.
“You’re probably leaving Cooper Kupp out,” Snead replied, adding his star wideout to the conversation. “You could probably go a little deeper than that [trinity].”
It’s hard not to think back to that exchange right now, with the Rams sitting at 2-4, still struggling with injuries, and hosting a Minnesota Vikings team on Thursday Night Football that is clearly one of the NFC’s elites. This feels like we’ve arrived at a crossroads moment for Snead, McVay, Stafford, Kupp and basically the entire Rams franchise.
Win on Thursday and Los Angeles is back into the NFC scuffle.
Lose on Thursday and it’s going to be decision-making time.
I think the Rams are heading into a retooling. I also think that’s going to start with Kupp getting dealt before the trade deadline. And I think if the Rams are going to trade Kupp, they have to open their minds to trading Stafford, too.
Which I think they will if they lose on Thursday night to the Vikings.
That’s how much is hanging in the balance for the Rams — the difference between trying to salvage the season (and maybe even become deadline buyers), versus closing a chapter in team history and parting company with some aging stars.
First and foremost, this has to be said: It would be an extremely slim possibility of trading away both Kupp and Stafford. The financial implications alone — which a lot of people seem to be ignoring — are fairly staggering. At the very least, the Rams will have to eat some of Kupp’s remaining salary to draw real value in a trade (they’re not getting a second-round draft pick without it). That’s before getting to Stafford’s contract, which would have to undergo a sizable restructure, and the Rams would have to eat some of his contract and inflict major salary-cap pain in 2025 and 2026 to make it happen. It makes more financial sense to play out the season and then release him with a $49.3 million dead cap hit next offseason, which could be spread over the 2025 and 2026 salary caps.
That doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen. While Kupp absolutely has a trade market, Stafford might have a market depending on what happens the next few weeks.
Without going full fantasy land lunacy, I think we can suspend reality for a moment and see some sensibility to the Vikings potentially being a trade partner for Stafford. Allow me to make a case, beginning with …
Stafford has a history with Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell, going all the way back to when O’Connell was Stafford’s teammate briefly with the Detroit Lions in the 2009 offseason. Later, O’Connell became Stafford’s offensive coordinator with the Rams during the 2021 season Super Bowl run — a period of time which saw the quarterback repeatedly offer effusive praise for O’Connell. They have a tight bond and know what it’s like to operate together during a Super Bowl run. That kind of fit is rare and immense when it comes to the connective tissue of a trade.
This brings us to the familiarity. O’Connell is running the offense he ran with McVay and Stafford. While there have been tweaks, Stafford stepping into O’Connell’s offense would be seamless. In fact, there’s an argument that he’s more versed in it than current Vikings starter Sam Darnold, who has been in some version of the scheme only since 2023 (if we’re counting the season he spent with Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers). It would be one of the easiest scheme transitions from one team to another in the middle of the season.
If the Rams deal Kupp, Stafford faces the remainder of the season with a solid but not exceptional mix of talent at the wideout and tight end spots, including (currently banged-up) star second-year wideout Puka Nacua, rookie Jordan Whittington, and Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee. Not to mention an offensive line that has been smacked with injuries since the start of the season.
Conversely, if you plug Stafford into the middle of the Vikings, the upgrades are mind-blowing: He’s throwing to the best receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson, alongside a pair of rising young No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts in Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor. Oh, and when tight end T.J. Hockenson returns from injured reserve, Stafford gets to work with a player with whom he spent two seasons in Detroit. Oh, and the offensive line is in better shape, too.
From the perspective of the Vikings, adding Stafford’s remaining salary this season — even if the Rams didn’t eat any of it — is very doable. Stafford is owed just over $14.4 million in base salary the rest of the season. Currently, the Vikings have right about $14 million of space under the 2024 salary cap. It’s basically one day of work for the cap department and front office.
This is where it gets dicey. The Vikings have only a first-round pick and two fifth-round picks in the 2025 draft. That’s basically nothing to work with, assuming Minnesota would never give up a first for half a season of Stafford. They could dip into their 2026 draft picks, which they showed a willingness to do in the Cam Akers trade last week. That trade involves conditional trade scenarios involving Minnesota’s sixth- and seventh-round picks.
There’s also one other potential asset in current starting quarterback Sam Darnold, whose one-year deal was largely paid with a signing bonus, leaving him with only a modest $2.5 million base salary to contend with. Of that number, Darnold is owed roughly $1.38 million for the rest of the season. Darnold going to the Rams would give McVay a chance to look at a younger quarterback who is already learning his system, opening the potential for Darnold to be an option for the future. As I noted when I pointed to a potential Darnold/Rams marriage earlier this season, Darnold has deep ties to Southern California, having played his high school and college football there. And if McVay doesn’t see something worth a long-term commitment, Darnold becomes a free agent in March anyway.
Rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy is out for the season after having knee surgery in the preseason. Prior to the injury, the Vikings wanted to keep him in the garage for as much of this season as possible. Bringing in Stafford — who has a $27 million base salary in 2025 that Minnesota can easily afford — could give the Vikings an even longer horizon on patiently developing McCarthy. While that kind of shelving of McCarthy might be too long for the Vikings to consider, it at least puts the option on the table. And if Minnesota decides that 2025 is McCarthy’s year, they can release Stafford next offseason without issue.
I’m not going to go too far down this rabbit hole, but I wonder if Stafford would like the opportunity to get in the way of his former team, the Detroit Lions, and Jared Goff in the playoff picture. Personally, I think he would.
When it’s all laid out in front of you — especially with O’Connell’s relationship with Stafford being so tight, there is a lot of sensibility for both teams. Especially if McVay and the Rams see any value in getting a look at Darnold as they start to make a transition toward their next quarterback.
Of course, the Rams having to take a hammer financially certainly creates a barrier, not to mention the Vikings (5-1) clicking right now with Darnold. A massive quarterback change could definitely rock the boat this season. And the fact is, Minnesota isn’t broken right now. This would be a change for the sake of possibly getting a little extra boost that might be necessary to get to a Super Bowl this season.
At the very least, it’s food for thought heading into the Thursday night game, wondering what implications could follow.
Now on to Week 7 of the QB Room …
OK, it’s not the traditional throw. I’ll fudge to get this one in. It’s a thrown block by the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, on a night he tossed five touchdown passes. While it’s probably not an advisable tactic, a quarterback running full throttle downfield to throw a block for a running back is the kind of thing that gets the juices of players going as much as a wild TD throw. Players will go through a wall for Jackson. This, among other reasons, is why.
It’s fourth down and a defender is in the face of Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts. This is an example of why it matters when any QB is deprived of their No. 1 receiver (including Patrick Mahomes, who is struggling without Rashee Rice). It’s OK to admit that the vast majority of NFL quarterbacks are better players when they have their best wide receiver up and running. That includes Hurts.
Seattle Seahawks’ Geno Smith is having a solid season. Good, but not not exceptional. And yes, there’s a fair possibility that he ends up getting replaced in the next offseason. But he has definitely put some staggering throws on tape this season. This is one of them. Contorted. Off platform. Making a weird scissor motion with his lower base as he throws. But it worked perfectly.
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff vs. the vaunted 7-man disguised front from Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores was complete with the horrifying post-snap movement that gives a quarterback roughly one second to diagnose who is going where and what he should do with the football. Goff nailed it.
Looking at passing charts this week, arguably nobody did more with less — and yet had less of an overall payoff — than Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. He had his biggest passing game during Jim Harbaugh’s tenure, going 27 of 39 for 349 yards (but zero touchdowns) in a frustrating 17-15 loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football.
It was a game played without his best outside receiver, Quentin Johnston, who missed the loss with an ankle injury. The result was Herbert making chicken salad with tight end Will Dissly, who had 11 targets, rookie Ladd McConkey and a bunch of spare parts role players. Frankly, it underscored the severe need for the Chargers to invest in a high-end No. 1 wideout, even if Harbaugh’s intention is to have a run-dominant team.
With that in mind, I compared Herbert’s 349-yard day against the Cardinals against his most recent previous 300-yard passing day, which came against the Detroit Lions on Nov. 12 of last season. It’s a pretty stark contrast.
Here are the dot charts. First, Herbert’s day against the Lions last season, which saw him go 27 of 40 for 323 yards and four touchdowns, against one interception in a 41-38 loss.
Next up, his day against the Cardinals on Monday Night Football.
So what do we see? First and foremost, it was a more vertical and diversified offense in 2023 under former coordinator Kellen Moore. But you can also see that there’s a reason for that, too. Yes, the 2023 game was against a poor Detroit defense. But Herbert also had access to a dominant No. 1 wideout in Keenan Allen, who destroyed Detroit’s secondary, paving the way for Herbert hitting three big throws that turned into touchdowns. That included two passes that had 15+ air yards and one of 25+.
Now compare that to the Monday Night Football chart against the Cardinals, when he had three passes of 20+ air yards and one of 35+. None resulted in touchdowns, and the longest completion of the day, a 41-yard completion to Jalen Reagor, accounted for nothing because Reagor fumbled it through the end zone. One other thing that’s extremely apparent when you look at the chart against the Cardinals: The offense is heavily tilted to the right side of the field, which I think is just another example of not having enough quality outside wideouts to balance the scheme. Had Johnston played, I think there would have been more access to both halves of the field.
The bottom line? The Chargers passed on wideout Malik Nabers to select offensive tackle Joe Alt. I have no issue that decision, given that Alt is likely going to be an extremely good player for the Chargers for a long time. But they have to address the depth and quality of outside receivers. McConkey is a quality No. 2 or slot. Johnston could end up being a solid No. 2 or No. 3. But there isn’t a slam dunk No. 1 on the offense since the departure of Keenan Allen. To get the most out of Herbert moving forward, that has to change.
This is it. This is the best version of Lamar Jackson that we have ever seen in the NFL. This is the guy, when you looked at the Heisman Trophy winner in college and said: “If he ever develops as a dominant passer, he will be historically good”… that’s this player. Set aside the narrow losses that had the Ravens starting the season 0-2, and set aside all the fun stats following Baltimore’s 41-31 Monday night win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (like Jackson having thrown 20 touchdowns and zero interceptions in Monday night games). Across the board, Jackson looks and charts better in virtually every data point. And you see it on the field. Of course, his playoff performance is what will ultimately matter most, and that remains a knock on him. But it feels like Jackson dropped his weight this season and discovered the next level. Right now, he’s well ahead of everyone for the third league MVP of his NFL career.
If Goff’s efficiency continues for a few more weeks, I can already hear the “system QB” conversation coming. One NFC executive this week already asked why Goff isn’t subject to the “system” talk that washes over Brock Purdy every time he has a sustained run of success. This will be a conversation for another day. The bottom line: The 31-29 win over the Minnesota Vikings and defensive coordinator Brian Flores was a measuring stick moment for Goff, and he passed it. He’s in the midst of the best four-game run of his entire career. But there’s some layered discussion about Goff (see “Odds and Ends” later in this column for part of it) that will unwind as we move on. We’ll get to more of it in a future column. For now, I’ll point to Weeks 8 and 9 on the schedule — road games in Green Bay and Houston — as opportunities to get closer to Lamar Jackson in the MVP race. For now, Goff is stalking.
Mariota is deep into the journeyman portion of this career, now playing for his fifth team in 10 years since being drafted No. 2 overall in 2015. While most fans view that as failure, I’ll say what I always tell anyone: Lasting for a decade in the NFL is extremely difficult. Lasting for 15 as mostly a reserve player, you deserve to be in the backup hall of fame. Mariota is this type of guy. I believe he could go another five years easily before finishing his career. I respect a veteran backup quarterback who can spot start for a few games and produce, make plays and win. That’s what Mariota did in the Commanders’ 40-7 win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 7, checking in after starter Jayden Daniels went down early. A few years from now, he’s heading for an immaculate pension and easily more than $100 million in career earnings. A quality veteran QB is your 23rd starter (11 offense, 11 defense, backup QB). Every team worth anything in the postseason needs one.
People are treating the 28-18 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs like a five-alarm fire and the worst game of Purdy’s career. I don’t think it’s that bad. But it certainly wasn’t good. We spent enough time talking about Purdy in the lead of this column to drone on here. This loss felt a lot like the stinker against the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Day of the 2023 season, when Purdy collapsed his MVP candidacy with four interceptions. He rebounded from that, propelling the 49ers into the Super Bowl. I think he can bounce back from this, too.
Forced back into the lineup after an injury to Aidan O’Connell, Minshew was terrible against a fairly green and somewhat undermanned Los Angeles Rams defense. Including that 20-15 loss, he has 10 turnovers in six games — on a bad team that seems like it’s closer to another complete tear-down of the coaching staff than turning a corner. At best, Minshew weakened his standing as a solid spot starter. At worst, he’s slipping down the rankings of backup QBs.
There is a glaring need at the wideout position, which explains why the rest of the NFL expected the Chiefs to make a move like they did for Tennessee Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins. Despite the 28-18 win over the San Francisco 49ers, it was one of the more underwhelming performances of Mahomes’ career. Tight end Travis Kelce was underwhelming for the fourth time in six games this season. Meanwhile, tight end Noah Gray was the most reliable option. Aside from Gray, wideout Mecole Hardman, and running back Kareem Hunt, the rest of the offense was pedestrian. With six touchdowns and eight interceptions, Mahomes is off to the worst start to his NFL career as a starter. The three-peat wall is real. And I’m not sure we can assume the Chiefs are going to snap out of this and transform into the juggernauts that we have come to expect.
It’s remarkable how quickly Lamar Jackson’s five-year $260 million extension became a bargain. Despite signing it in the 2023 offseason, his $52 million annual salary is already eighth (eighth!) among quarterbacks. And given how Jackson has played since signing his extension, you could argue no other player has done a better job of earning his money after signing his deal. Not only did he win league MVP last season, he’s at the front of the field through seven games this season. The Ravens could easily be 7-0. And Jackson is currently on pace for the best season of his NFL career. If he finishes this one out the way he has started, all that’s left is to finally put it together in the playoffs. He hasn’t been able to do that yet — but this year is starting to feel distinctly different. By the way, he’s the most expensive lead blocker in NFL history.
I don’t want to say it’s definitively over for Will Levis with the Tennessee Titans, but the team trading DeAndre Hopkins to the Kansas City Chiefs feels like the writing is on the wall. That move takes the most reliable club Levis had in his bag and gives it to someone else. No, Hopkins wasn’t going to be back in Tennessee next season. But he was still vital to Levis’ development. Flipping him for a late-round draft pick makes it look like Levis is sliding down the list of priorities for the Titans.
I still think the Pittsburgh Steelers are the favorite to land Cooper Kupp, but if the Detroit Lions can’t add a significant piece to their defensive line, I wouldn’t be surprised if they worked to bolster the offense with one more skill position piece. The recent win over the Vikings showcased that good offense can still beat good defense, and Detroit’s offense does have room for improvement. Especially with young wideout Jameson Williams once again getting hit with a suspension from the league. Not for nothing, Lions general manager Brad Holmes was the director of college scouting for the Rams when they drafted Kupp in 2017. Kupp also spent four seasons as one of Goff’s favorite targets with the Rams, from 2017-2020. As perfect as Goff has been this season, imagine adding Kupp’s hands to that situation.
With Chris Godwin lost for the season and Mike Evans down for several games for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, we’re about to see if Baker Mayfield has reached the level of his career where he can elevate younger and more inexperienced players. Buckle up. It’s going to be interesting, and will also say a lot about how far Mayfield has come.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa refusing to wear a guardian cap — though he will wear the safest-graded helmet for QBs — in the wake of his concussions makes me wonder if we might get to the point where the NFL mandates the protection be employed for the remainder of a season once a player has reached a certain threshold of concussions. I assume it would have to be something hammered out with the union in the next collective bargaining agreement, but the league clearly believes the data is showing guardian caps work to help prevent head injuries.
I asked an AFC general manager what he thought about the caps becoming a player safety mandate in the wake of concussions and he doubted the league would go that far. “As much as [the NFL] is into the guardian caps, I doubt they want it being forced onto players, because then it turns into the red practice jersey,” he said. “And guys hate wearing that f***ing red jersey in practice.”
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