Here’s What To Know—And How Likely It Is

Topline

Lawmakers this week are expected to approve legislation to avert a government shutdown that does not include former President Donald Trump’s demands for new voting restrictions targeting undocumented migrants.

Key Facts

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What To Watch For

The House is expected to vote on the bill as soon as Wednesday, according to multiple reports. It would then move to the Senate for final passage.

Contra

It’s already illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections, and studies have found it rarely happens. An audit by Republican Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger found 1,634 non-citizens had attempted to register to vote in the state between 1997 and 2022, but none actually voted. The libertarian Cato Institute also determined “there is no good evidence that non-citizens voted illegally in large enough numbers to actually shift the outcome of elections or even change the number of electoral votes.”

Why Could A Government Shutdown Happen?

Because lawmakers have yet to come to an agreement on a new spending plan to replace or continue the one that expires when the 2024 fiscal year ends on Sept. 30. Fundamentally, the impasse is due to divided control of Congress, with Democrats narrowly controlling the Senate while the GOP holds a single-digit edge in the House—and some members of the GOP caucus believe the party should use the process to push for spending cuts. Congress has narrowly averted a shutdown five times already in the past year, as hard-right Republicans have repeatedly leveraged the GOP’s slim majority in the House to force their demands into the budget, derailing negotiations until the final hour. Congress passed the fiscal year 2024 budget in March, six months after the 2023 fiscal year ended, with bipartisan support. The House’s initial continuation of the fiscal year 2023 budget, in September last year, led to former GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s historic ouster, with several among the small group of far-right lawmakers who voted for his removal citing a lack of sufficient spending cuts. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has also faced threats on his job from some fellow Republicans, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., over the budget, but they’re widely viewed as unserious.

When Would The Government Shut Down?

On Oct. 1 at 12:01 a.m., when the current spending plan expires—unless Congress passes a short-term extension to buy negotiators more time.

Will There Be A Government Shutdown?

It’s unlikely as leaders of both parties have expressed concerns about how a shutdown could impact the 2024 election as lawmakers’ votes could be used by their political opponents to campaign against them. “As history has taught and current polling affirms, shutting the government down less than 40 days from a fateful election would be an act of political malpractice,” Johnson told House lawmakers in a letter Sunday announcing the new agreement.

Who Is Affected By A Government Shutdown?

Federal employees who are not deemed essential or exempt from a shutdown, such as law enforcement officials and some military, would be the first to feel the impacts as they would be furloughed or instructed to work without pay. Most Border Patrol and immigration enforcement agents would continue to work, and federal courts and the Supreme Court would stay open. Paychecks for lawmakers would continue, but staffers would not get paid. In the past, Congress has passed legislation to allow paychecks for some essential workers, such as military members, to continue. Those working without pay will likely receive back pay. Meanwhile, people reliant on Medicare and Social Security are expected to still receive those benefits since they’re funded through a different process.

What Federal Offices Would Close During A Shutdown?

In previous shutdowns, national parks have shuttered as rangers were furloughed and facilities closed. The National Institutes of Health would also be prohibited from admitting new patients or processing grant applications, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Some Internal Revenue Service employees could also be furloughed, potentially resulting in a delay of loan approvals. Air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration officials could also be forced to work without pay. The 2018-2019 shutdown prompted widespread air travel delays as some TSA agents and air traffic controllers called off work. While the State Department would likely continue issuing passports, some passport offices in federal buildings closed due to a shutdown could also shutter.

When Was The Last Government Shutdown?

It ran from Dec. 22, 2018 to Jan. 25, 2019, during the Trump administration. At 34 days, it was the longest government shutdown in history by a significant margin, as most shutdowns in recent decades have lasted two weeks or less.

What Have Trump, Biden And Harris Said About A Shutdown?

Trump has urged Republicans to let the government shut down if the new spending plan does not include the voting law, writing on Truth Social Wednesday “if Republicans don’t get the SAVE Act, and every ounce of it, they should not agree to a Continuing Resolution in any way, shape or form.” Harris has not publicly commented, but her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, blasted Republicans for flirting with a shutdown, telling Spectrum News he predicts their maneuvering will help Democrats take control of the House and regain control of the Senate in November. “They’ll find out what happens,” Walz said. Biden has said he would veto any continuing resolution that includes the voting provision, known as the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or the SAVE Act.

Further Reading

Government Shutdown Looms—Again—As Election Complicates Latest Fight (Forbes)

In Nod To Trump, House GOP Pushes Bills Barring Noncitizens From Voting—But It’s Already Illegal And Rare (Forbes)

House Passes $1.2 Trillion Budget With Bipartisan Support—Likely Averting Government Shutdown After Months Of Negotiations (Forbes)