2024-09-23 20:15:03
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a system in the Gulf of Mexico that could strengthen into a tropical storm in the next couple of days.
According to an early Monday morning advisory from the hurricane center, the system designated as Invest 97L is producing showers and thunderstorms that “are beginning to show signs of organization with a broad area of low pressure” over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. If it forms, the storm would be named Helene.
The NHC said environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of the system, and a “tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days” as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
“Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days,” the NHC said in the advisory, while also noting that interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this system.
The system is forecast to to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the system, according to the NHC.
Weather to Know:Gulf Coast faces hurricane threat, storms forecast across East
Another storm potentially brewing in the eastern Atlantic
The NHC also said Monday it is monitoring a tropical wave located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands that is producing “disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.”
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, according to the hurricane center, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to later part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
The NHC gives the system a 70 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.
Atlantic and Gulf storm tracker
Invest 97L spaghetti models
Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Tropical Storm John triggers warnings for portions of southern Mexico
Tropical Storm John was located about 130 miles south of Punta Maldonado with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph early Monday morning, according to an advisory from the NHC, triggering the Mexican government to issue a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco.
John is moving to the north-northeast near 3 mph, the NHC said, and a slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days.
The system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two and move inland on Tuesday or Wednesday. The NHC said John is also forecast to strengthen over the next day or two and could become a hurricane before landfall.
The NHC is forecasting 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. Additionally, in areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday.
“This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast,” the NHC said Monday.
Tropical Storm John tracker
Tropical Storm John spaghetti models
Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].
