2024-07-23 00:25:04
- Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is a “hot property right now,” with numerous media reports mentioning him as a potential vice presidential candidate for the Democratic ticket.
- Beshear’s ability to win three statewide races in deep red Kentucky make him an appealing choice in the upcoming race.
- But despite his popularity here, it’s unlikely Beshear will help pick up Kentucky’s eight electoral college votes for Democrats.
The news that President Joe Biden will end his second term bid puts a spotlight on contenders for the Democratic ticket, including Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.
Beshear is a “hot property right now,” said University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss, with numerous media reports mentioning him as a possible vice president nominee.
Others reportedly shortlisted for VP include North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.
Beshear’s ability to win three statewide races — first as attorney general and then as governor — in deep red Kentucky make him an appealing choice for the upcoming race, political scientists and party observers say.
Think Beshear should be the VP nominee?Let us know why or why not
But despite his popularity here, it’s unlikely Beshear will help pick up Kentucky’s eight electoral college votes for Democrats. Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump swept to victory here in 2020 with around two-thirds of the vote.
Still, Beshear’s success in Kentucky could help the Democrats pick up voters among states and demographics similar to Kentucky’s.
Here’s a look at some of Beshear’s pros and cons as a vice presidential candidate.
Why Beshear is a good pick for vice president
Beshear’s ability to win in Republican Kentucky is likely appealing to Democratic Party leaders, several observers told The Courier Journal.
“Here comes a Democrat out of a Republican stronghold and gets elected governor two times. So that makes people take notice of Andy Beshear,” said Danny Briscoe, a longtime Democratic consultant in Kentucky.
Much of Beshear’s popularity lies in his success with “kitchen-table issues,” University of Louisville political scientist Dewey Clayton said, giving jobs and public education as examples.
He’s also seen the state through several major disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic, tornadoes in Western Kentucky and floods in Eastern Kentucky. His presence on the ground left an “indelible” impression on people’s memories, Briscoe said.
Beshear is known for calling for a special session of the Kentucky General Assembly in 2022 after areas in Eastern Kentucky were devastated by deadly flooding. Prior to the three-day session, Beshear and Republican leaders had bipartisan discussions on what the region needed, resulting in a $212.6 million relief package that went toward repairing roads and sewer systems, replacing damaged roads and other items.
Mike Ward, a longtime Democratic activist, thinks Beshear’s ability to relate to rural people could be an asset, too.
“They feel left out and neglected, and Andy (Beshear) has shown again and again and again that he did not leave them out in Kentucky, that he showed them every ounce of respect and attention that he showed to the areas of the state where he got a lot higher percent of the vote,” Ward said.
Beshear’s political experience in a relatively small and more rural state could help with the audiences and places vice presidential candidates are often tasked with handling, Ward added.
More:Who is Andy Beshear? What we know about his politics career
“While the presidential candidate is speaking to the arenas full of people, the vice presidential candidate is going to the smaller communities that are regional hubs but are not the big arenas of crowds,” he said.
Beshear might also provide a counterweight to GOP vice presidential nominee, JD Vance. Though Vance did not grow up in Appalachia, he has family ties to Kentucky’s Breathitt County and wrote a book called “Hillbilly Elegy.”
“Andy would wipe the floor with JD Vance (in a debate),” Ward said. “Andy knows how to listen to the question, knows how to address the part of the question that is really important to people watching and to communicate his feelings, opinions and plans for that part of the question.”
Beshear also has tangible accomplishments, especially in job creation and economic development, Ward said.
“Gov. Beshear has announced more than 1,000 private-sector new-location and expansion projects totaling nearly $32 billion in announced investments, creating more than 54,700 jobs,” a July 19 press release from the Cabinet for Economic Development stated.
The state’s Republican Party, however, does not think Beshear should get credit for those achievements.
“Andy Beshear didn’t support building the budget reserve trust fund, comprehensive tax reform, Right to Work or the repeal of prevailing wage and income tax reductions like Republican lawmakers did,” Republican Party of Kentucky spokesperson Andrew Westberry said. “Record growth started before he took office. It’s misleading for him to oppose these policies yet take credit for the results.”
And lately Beshear’s been making a push to connect with Democrats in other states and party leaders. That’s the kind of intra-party politicking that could make him appealing to party leadership, said political scientist Voss.
Why Beshear shouldn’t be the VP nominee
Beshear has downsides too, observers told The Courier Journal.
For example, though he won three statewide races in a largely rural state, he mostly did so with votes from larger population centers, Democratic campaign consultant Briscoe said.
“He carried Lexington, he carried Louisville, he carried Owensboro, he carried Ashland, he carried Bowling Green, he carried Richmond, he carried Frankfort,” but Beshear lost in 91 of Kentucky’s 120 counties in his 2023 race for governor, Briscoe said. That throws into question his success with the rural vote.
In addition, a Beshear pick would not help Democrats win any additional electoral votes, assuming the state goes for Trump, Briscoe said.
Forty-six-year-old Beshear — whom political scientist Clayton called a “youngblood” —provides a new face for the Democratic Party currently represented by 81-year-old Joe Biden.
But that may not matter much, political scientist Voss said.
If Vice President Kamala Harris is the nominee, Democrats don’t necessarily need a younger candidate to join her.
“She’s still spry, and, if anything, needs the perception of polish (and) wisdom shored up,” Voss said.
In addition, as a Democratic governor in a state with a Republican supermajority in the legislature, it’s been hard for Beshear to enact or defend key policies.
Though Beshear vetoed a number of Republican-sponsored bills passed in this year’s legislative session, legislators easily overrode those vetoes. Beshear was also not able to get key budget priorities enacted, such as an additional check for state retirees.
“I would like to see him mature his skills in his home state, for sure,” Democratic megadonor Christy Brown of Louisville told The Courier Journal. “I am very pleased that he is continuing to serve as governor of Kentucky now, and I would like to see him continue that and mature his skills.”
Beshear also lacks serious “foreign policy bona fides,” Clayton said.
Beshear just took an economic development trip to Japan and South Korea and, earlier this year, he traveled to Germany and Switzerland, according to press releases from his office.
How important is a vice presidential pick, really?
It may not much matter who the vice presidential pick is, Voss said.
Research shows the home state of the president matters a great deal, but voters aren’t really swayed by a home-state vice presidential pick. It’s really who is at the top of the ticket that counts, Voss said.
“Conventionally, campaigns look for balance” in choosing a running mate, Voss said. But there’s little credible research to suggest how best to round out a ticket.
The process is more “conventional wisdom and vibes” than science, Voss said.
Reach Rebecca Grapevine at [email protected] or follow her on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @RebGrapevine. Reach reporter Hannah Pinski at @[email protected] or follow her on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @hannahpinski.
