Florida vs. Mississippi State odds, spread: 2024 college football picks, Week 4 predictions from proven model

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-2) and Florida Gators (1-2) are both desperate for a win heading into their matchup on Saturday afternoon. Florida head coach Billy Napier is on the hot seat following a 33-20 loss to Texas A&M last week, which was Florida’s 12th loss in its last 15 games against power-conference opponents. Mississippi State is getting set for its SEC opener after losing to Toledo 41-17 at home last week. It was the most lopsided non-conference home loss for the Bulldogs since 2006, so first-year head coach Jeff Lebby will be looking to right the ship in conference play. Florida is 0-3 against the spread this season, while MSU is 1-2 ATS. 

Kickoff is noon ET at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. The Gators are favored by 6.5 points in the latest Mississippi State vs. Florida odds per SportsLine consensus, while the over/under is 58.5 points, up two points from the opener. Before entering any Florida vs. Mississippi State picks, you’ll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also coming off a profitable 13-9 season on top-rated spread picks and is off to a 5-2 start on over/under picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on Florida vs. Mississippi State. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for the game:

• Mississippi State vs. Florida spread: Florida -6.5
• Mississippi State vs. Florida over/under: 58.5 points
• Mississippi State vs. Florida money line: Florida -246, MSU +198
• Mississippi State vs. Florida picks: See picks here

Why Mississippi State can cover

Florida is off to a horrendous start this season, offering little resistance in losses to Miami and Texas A&M. There has been speculation regarding Napier’s job stability throughout the week, which certainly does not help the team’s morale heading into their first road game of the season. The Gators are now 1-7 in their last eight games dating back to last season, and they have only covered the spread once during that stretch.

Mississippi State is not off to a strong start either, but it is still trying to build momentum under a first-year head coach. The Bulldogs do not have to worry about a coaching change mid-season, which gives them more stability than Florida. Senior quarterback Blake Shapen has completed 70.1% of his passes for 834 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception. See which team to pick here. 

Why Florida can cover

Napier is feeling the heat, so he should have his best game plan prepared. He has been using a two-quarterback system early in the season, as senior Graham Mertz and freshman DJ Lagway have both been getting snaps. Neither of them can afford a bad performance in this matchup since Napier has two options. 

Mississippi State is coming off its most lopsided non-conference home loss since 2006, as it failed to gain a first down on any of its first three possessions. The Bulldogs did not score a touchdown until there were less than six minutes remaining in the third quarter, despite entering that game as 10.5-point favorites. They have only covered the spread three times in their last 14 games and are 1-7 in their last eight games against SEC opponents. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Mississippi State vs. Florida picks

The model has simulated Florida vs. Mississippi State 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mississippi State vs. Florida, and which side of the spread is hitting over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Florida vs. Mississippi State spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer model that’s up over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks since its inception, and find out.