Appalachian State vs. South Alabama prediction, odds: 2024 college football Week 4 picks by advanced model

The Sun Belt Conference season kicks off on Thursday when the South Alabama Jaguars battle the Appalachian State Mountaineers. Both teams are coming off impressive but vastly different types of wins in Week 3. South Alabama rolled to an 87-10 win over Northwestern State of the FCS, while Appalachian State edged East Carolina 21-19 on the road. The Jaguars (1-2), who finished 7-6 overall in 2023, tied for second in the Sun Belt West with Texas State and Arkansas State at 4-4, three games behind Troy. The Mountaineers (2-1), who finished second behind James Madison at 6-2 in the Sun Belt East, were 9-5 overall a year ago.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, N.C. The Mountaineers are 7.5-point favorites in the latest South Alabama vs. Appalachian State odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 62.5. Before making any Appalachian State vs. South Alabama picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also coming off a profitable 13-9 season on top-rated spread picks and is off to a 5-2 start on over/under picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on South Alabama vs. Appalachian State. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under for the game: 

• South Alabama vs. Appalachian State spread: Appalachian State -7.5
• South Alabama vs. Appalachian State over/under: 62.5 points
• South Alabama vs. Appalachian State money line: Appalachian State -279, South Alabama +221
• SA: The Jaguars have hit the game total over in eight of their last 13 games (+2.50 units)
• APS: The Mountaineers have hit the game total under in nine of their last 14 games (+3.50 units)
• South Alabama vs. Appalachian State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back Appalachian State

Junior running back Anderson Castle has become a dual-threat in the offense. He leads the Mountaineers in rushing with 148 yards on 33 carries (4.5 average) and one touchdown. Castle is also the team’s fifth-leading receiver with eight receptions for 52 yards (6.5 average). In parts of five seasons for Appalachian State, he has carried 176 times for 938 yards (5.3 average) and eight touchdowns.

Senior quarterback Joey Aguilar runs the offense. In three games this season, he has completed 72 of 124 passes (58.1%) for 964 yards and five touchdowns. He has two interceptions but has a rating of 133.4. He has also carried 15 times for 44 yards (2.9 average) and two touchdowns. In two seasons with the Mountaineers, he has thrown for 4,721 yards and 38 TDs with just 12 picks for a rating of 147.8. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back South Alabama

Freshman Fluff Bothwell is off to a solid start to his collegiate career. In three games, he has carried just 23 times for 243 yards (10.6 average) and four touchdowns. In last Thursday’s win over Northwestern State, he carried seven times for 143 yards (20.4 average) and two touchdowns. He had 10 carries for 70 yards and a score in the 27-20 loss at Ohio on Sept. 7.

Defensively, the Jaguars have been led by sophomore linebacker Blayne Myrick. He has registered 25 tackles, including nine solo, with one forced fumble and one pass breakup. In the loss to Ohio, he made 10 stops, including six solo, and forced a fumble. In limited playing time over the past two seasons, Myrick has registered 32 stops, including 15 solo, with one forced fumble and one pass breakup. See which team to pick here.

How to make South Alabama vs. Appalachian State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins South Alabama vs. Appalachian State, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the South Alabama vs. Appalachian State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.