Oregon football vs. Purdue: Predictions, odds

What is being said and predicted nationally about the Ducks‘ upcoming game against the Boilermakers? Not much.

Needless to say, No. 2 Oregon vs. one-win Purdue on a Friday night in mid-October isn’t really moving the needle for the college football audience.

But Duck fans should hope that’s not been the case inside Oregon’s locker room this week.

The Boilermakers might not be good, but they can still be dangerous. History shows that.

Purdue has seven wins against ranked opponents over the past six seasons, including three against teams rankedin the top 3 — No. 2 Ohio State in 2018, No. 2 Iowa in 2021 and No. 3 Michigan State in 2021.

Friday’s 5 p.m. game will air on FOX.

At BetMGM, as of Thursday, the Ducks are a 28.5-point favorite. Oregon is -10,000 on the money line while Purdue is +1,800. The over/under (point total) is set at 60.5.

The matchup predictor provided by ESPN Analytics has Oregon with a 95% chance to beat Purdue.

Projection: Ducks win by 28 points

“I’ve been thinking about this game since the summertime, and here’s why. You know Oregon is going to be a massive favorite, which they are … and yet, what do we see all the time in college football? Teams underperform the week after their most emotional win. … I guarantee you we’re going to see Oregon sleepwalk a little bit. It’s just human nature. This is nothing against Dan Lanning, this is nothing against Dillon Gabriel or any of the players. It is just human nature. It is human nature after last week’s emotional, one-point win over Ohio State at home with that environment, now you have to play a Purdue team that is getting better and better and better, which no one in your locker room thinks anything of because of how bad they were earlier in the season and you’ve got to play on the road on a Friday night … 27.5 is too much. It’s too much.  … This is a trap game and I have been circling this one since the summertime.”

Pick: Oregon wins, 42-28

“This game scares me because I’m going to actually lay the points with Oregon. They are traveling, short week, Purdue’s coming off a performance where they took Illinois right to the brink and tried the two-point conversion and came up just short. But I also think they also showed their cards with Ryan Browne their quarterback running the football. I think now that that’s on tape, Oregon will be able to keep that in check. One other aspect of this, Dillon Gabriel has all of a sudden vaulted himself into second in the Heisman Trophy conversation. Maybe that comes into play for (offensive coordinator) Will Stein to keep him in just a little bit longer to get him just a little bit more stats, and if that’s the case, I think Oregon gets it down and covers the 27.5 points.”

“This has nothing to do with time zones, this has to do with something that goes back through multiple coaches, through multiple generations, and that is top-5 teams, going to play Purdue in West Lafayette. Now, I’m not calling the straight out upset, I’m just saying, (27.5) is a heck of a lot of points for a short week after a massive win going up against Purdue team that I think, with that quarterback run game, might be able to shorten this thing. We saw Oregon get up early and pack it in against Michigan State. This is a team that likes to be able to handle its business and then maybe get out of the game as healthy as possible and there’s no shame in that. They are clearly one of the best teams in the entire country, it’s just 27.5 is a whole heck of a lot of points when we consider the short week, the hangover and again, the juju of the Spoilermakers.”

Chris Hansen covers University of Oregon football, men’s basketball, track and field, cross country and softball for The Register-Guard. You can reach him at chansen@registerguard.com and you can follow him on X @chansen_RG.