2024-09-19 09:10:08
With four weeks to go, this Double Game Week is one of the biggest remaining opportunities for points. The schedules are a little rough – only four teams have two home matches and none of them are all that exciting – but we can guarantee there will be a ton of points on the table. With the potential to reach 200+ points in the DGW, some players will be able to drastically improve their spot in the standings. There’s a lot to watch out for this week, on top of needing to enter lineups before the Wednesday deadlines, so let’s get into it.
Odds & Ends
Firstly, a quick schedule reference sheet:
Wednesday’s Player Status Report and Disciplinary Summary
Two key players to note on injury: Hector Herrera is out for 2-3 weeks with a hamstring injury and Walker Zimmerman is questionable with illness. There are also a bunch of important players suspended: Austin is missing Driussi, Hines-Ike and Valencia; LAFC is missing O’Brien; Miami has Aviles and Busquets suspended (plus Martino); Philly won’t have Elliott; RSL has Arango and Katranis out.
There is also a looooong list of players on Yellow Card Warning. Ones to watch: Brooks Lennon, Asier Illaramendi, Griffin Dorsey, Sergi Palencia, Santi Rodriguez, James Sands, Cesar Araujo, Kai Wagner, Diego Chara, Evander, Brian White.
One other thing to keep in mind is that five teams play midweek next week, as well: Columbus in the Campeones Cup against America, LAFC hosts SKC for the USOC Final, and Vancouver hosts Toronto for the Canadian Championship Final. LAFC, VAN and TFC are on the road this weekend and could end up rotating for those matches.
For scrubs, DC has the latest single-game match, coming all the way on Sunday. They’re a good choice if you want flexibility – Jeahze, Birbaum, and Antley are safe scrubs. If you want your scrubs locked in early so you don’t have to worry about it, Seattle is Wednesday-only so you could pick up Hawkins/Lopez.
Quick Rankings
GK: Patrick Schulte, Pedro Gallese, Steve Clark –> Hugo Lloris
DEF: Steven Moreira/Rudy Camacho/Sean Zawadski, Justen Glad/Emeka Eneli, Aaron Long, Micael dos Santos, Dagur Thorhallsson, Jordi Alba, Walker Zimmerman (questionable)
MID: Riqui Puig, Djordje Mihailovic, Hany Mukhtar, Mateusz Bogusz, Evander (YCW), Robin Lod, Marco Reus/Joseph Paintsil, Carles Gil, Lucho Acosta, Ryan Gauld, Amine Bassi, Albert Rusnák (??)
FWD: Leo Messi, Cucho Hernandez, Denis Bouanga, Luis Suarez, Gabriel Pec, Willy Agada, Alonso Martinez, Rafael Navarro
Italics indicate rotation risks
Week 27 schedule
Atlanta: v MIA, @ NYRB
Austin: @ LAFC, v HOU
Charlotte: @ ORL, v NE
Chicago: @ NSH, @ MTL
Cincinnati: @ MIN, @ NSH
Colorado: @ SKC, v TFC
Columbus: @ TFC, v ORL
DC: @ PHI
Dallas: @ RSL, v LAFC
Houston: v VAN, @ ATX
Kansas City: v COL, v MIN
LA Galaxy: @ POR, v VAN
LAFC: v ATX, @ DAL
Miami: @ ATL, @ NYC
Minnesota: v CIN, @ SKC
Montreal: @ NE, v CHI
Nashville: v CHI, v CIN
New England: v MTL, @ CLT
New York Red Bulls: v ATL
New York City: v PHI, v MIA
Orlando: v CLT, @ CLB
Philadelphia: @ NYC, v DCU
Portland: v LAG, @ RSL
Salt Lake: v DAL, v POR
San Jose: @ SEA, v STL
Seattle: v SJE
St. Louis: @ SJE
Toronto: v CLB, @ COL
Vancouver: @ HOU, @ LAG
Defenses
I’m not going through every team and every matchup this week, so here are my defenses to target:
Columbus – Patrick Schulte, Steven Moreira, Rudy Camacho, Sean Zawadzki. Still an elite team with an elite defense, Columbus has allowed the fewest goals on the road in the league and are +12 GD on the road. Their matchups are reasonable; Columbus shut out both Toronto and Orlando in their previous league games this year. Choosing between Moreira and Camacho is a dart throw. Camacho has over 30 BPs on the year and is the most consistent in that regard, while Moreira regularly gets BPs and has added 2 goals, 2 assists. Both of them should play 90s, even with the midweek game.
Farsi is a consideration with 3 goals on the year, but he’s less consistent with BPs and would need a goal contribution to be the right choice.
Beware, however, since Columbus could kick us all to the curb by implementing heavy rotation on the weekend game to freshen up for Campeones Cup next Wednesday. Zawadzki is on my list since he has been Columbus’s “iron man,” as one of the few players (alongside Schulte and Amundsen) who is basically never rotated. He isn’t scoring that highly in fantasy, but the high 90/90 chance is appealing.
Real Salt Lake – Justen Glad, Emeka Eneli. Two home games in a tough venue against two teams in the bottom half of the league. Dallas and Portland are very capable of scoring, but the double-home setup is enough of a boost in my mind. RSL has been trading keeper starts in these double-game weeks, so use one of Glad or Eneli. Glad is slightly higher on a ppg basis, as they have the same amount of BPs even though Glad is on 500 fewer minutes, but Eneli does have a goal and assist to his name, so either option is reasonable.
LAFC – Hugo Lloris, Aaron Long. LAFC have been one of the better defenses in the league this year (when not playing some of the elite teams, anyway), and tonight they play a depleted Austin team at home. I fear we may see some rotation on the weekend in Dallas, so I am not heartedly endorsing them, but I think at least one shutout is likely.
Houston – Steve Clark, Micael dos Santos. Their first match against Vancouver will be interesting, especially if Brian White returns from his concussion issues, but Houston is strong enough to keep Vancouver out anyway. Their weekend derby against Austin could get crazy, but I am anticipating at least one CS for Houston between these two matches. I’d have Griffin Dorsey recommended here but he’s on YCW and likely not worth the risk.
Orlando – Pedro Gallese, Dagur Thorhallsson. Orlando hasn’t been the strongest defensive team this year, but they have put together some good performances recently. This pick would lean heavily on a shutout against Charlotte, as I don’t have faith in their defense against Columbus. Thorhallsson may be good enough with offensive contributions that you don’t mind if they get smoked on the weekend.
Jordi Alba (if starting Wednesday). He’s here purely for offensive output. I’m not picking Miami defenders for clean sheets, especially on a double away week. Alba has been rotated some DGWs, so minutes are a concern, but he has gone 90/90 in other DGWs so you may be in for a treat. Fortunately, Miami is in the early games tonight so we can adjust if he is out of the starting lineup. I do not recommend Gressel in Alba’s place, as Gressel’s points are way down when Messi is on the field.
Walker Zimmerman. This pick depends on his health. If he’s starting tonight then he is a strong pick with two good home games, even though Nashville is bad. Despite their horrible run of form before their win in Atlanta, they are still just four games back from a playoff spot with a game in hand over DCU. They could make a big move up this week.
Midfielders
Riqui Puig, Marco Reus, Joseph Paintsil. These guys get Portland on the road and then a home match versus the Whitecaps for a fun Cascadia week. Puig should be one of the first players on your teams, and Reus/Paintsil largely depend on who gets the start in Portland. It’s possible they split time, with Reus spared playing on Portland’s turf, but we’ll see. I’m personally going to wait until we see a couple of games where Joveljic, Pec, Paintsil, Reus, Puig and Fagundez are all available to see the lineups and formation going forward. But I do think at least one of Reus and Paintsil will be in the top 10 midfielders this week.
Djordje Mihailovic. A career year continues for Mihailovic, earning two assists last week against Portland on top of a second week of 14 KPs plus a crossing bonus. Away to SKC and home against Toronto, with Toronto a rotation risk ahead of the Canadian Championship, is pretty much as good as a schedule gets this week. He should probably be the second selection on your team behind Puig. Cole Bassett is interesting as a secondary choice, but he’s been slightly inconsistent for me.
Hany Mukhtar. He’s been hit or miss all year, with some great weeks reminiscent of his MVP campaign and duds where he is out there fighting shadows with no support from his team. One great stat: since Week 18, Mukhtar has been averaging 10 KPs a game! One bad stat: for all those KPs, he only has three goal contributions in those games – two goals and one assist. Unfortunately, Nashville’s best striker, Jacob Shaffelburg, is out with injury. If Nashville goes on a run, they could still sneak into the playoffs, but it will require Mukhtar to recapture his old form.
Mateusz Bogusz. You just know one of these LAFC guys will go off against Austin and put in a good shift in Dallas, even if it is off the bench. LAFC has something to prove in these upcoming games after some poor outings against teams not named the Seattle Sounders, and they have the quality to do so. Bogusz started both games of all of LAFC’s DGWs so far, for what it’s worth. But it’s possible his legs are saved a bit so that LAFC can bury SKC next week.
Evander. After a below average (for him) game in Colorado, Evander gets a high-octane home matchup against the Galaxy, then another opportunity at altitude in Utah. I’m a little cautious here since I am worried the Galaxy attack will bury the Timbers’ poor defense and leave them without opportunities going forward, plus Evander is on yellow card warning and he’s already been suspended once already for accumulation. And the match at RSL will be tough anyway. But he’s one of the most talented attackers in the league and the fantasy stats love him, so it’s hard to fade him. Could be a defining player of the week.
Robin Lod. While Lod has not been on fire recently, and Minnesota has largely been quite bad, they host Cincinnati and then play away to Kansas City. Neither opponent has impressed lately and Minnesota showed signs they are putting it together with their new additions after a 3-1 win in St. Louis. Lod is playing as a central 10, with new DP Pereya playing wide. Lod should have opportunities to run this attack. He has not been elite this year, with only one game in double-digit points, but I would be paying attention to him going forward if Minnesota have figured out how best to integrate Pereyra and Yeboah.
Carles Gil. An absolute plum rematch against Montreal after thrashing them 5-0 on the road a few weeks ago? That’s enough for me to be very interested. I am not as certain about the road leg in Charlotte, but we take what we can get this week.
Lucho Acosta. He was bottled up against Columbus last week, but he played more than one half for the first time since July 13th, going 89 minutes. Two road games for Cincy is less than ideal, but it’s not like Minnesota (5W-4D-5L at home) or Nashville (4-5-5) have been particularly punishing to visitors. And Cincinatti has still won nine road games this year, as many road wins as their opponents have home wins combined! Of course, Cincy lost their last two road games, but I am betting they get a win in one of these with Acosta back to health.
Ryan Gauld. Gauld was unsurprisingly a Dream Team pick last week (that I didn’t take, sadly) and, even though he is on the road, he’s an intriguing pick again this week. Gauld has double-digit points in six of his last eight road matches, a startling commitment to the bit. Notes of caution: away to Houston and away to the Galaxy is not the best set of matchups and Vancouver may be set for rotation this week given two road matches and the Canadian Championship Final they are hosting against Toronto next week. But Gauld could be in for at least one big score if he can keep up his road form.
Amine Bassi. With Herrera out for a couple of weeks, it will fall on Bassi to really push the attack. Bassi has been decent with and without Herrera this year and largely does the connecting in the final third anyway. He’s got 66 BPs on the year plus three goals and five assists. I think he can still facilitate with Herrera out, given the improvements in Houston’s other attacking options, most notably Ponce. Vancouver is strong on the road but the road trip to Austin could be a lucrative one for Bassi.
Albert Rusnák. Hear me out – I know Rusnak has just one game, but that one game is at home against San Jose. Rusnak had the opportunity for a 15-point week last week if a couple of small things had gone his way (if Morris doesn’t take the assist to Rothrock, if Morris had buried the header instead of Ragen smashing home the rebound, if Rusnák has scored the PK) and is likely set for another throttling of San Jose. Seattle is off on the weekend and can throw everything into this game. I think Rusnak scores double digits with a ceiling in the 15-20 point range. Even if he “only” scores 9-10 points, I think that’s perfectly acceptable. A risky option since he will need a stand-out game to outshine two average scores from other midfielders, but with a lot of uncertainties this week I am still interested.
Forwards
Leo Messi. I mean, come on. Just look at what he did last week now that he’s rested and healthy again. Even if he comes off the bench tonight, and even though Miami is on the road for both games, you have to have him. He’s the third “lock” I see this week as long as he’s at least on the bench tonight.
Cucho Hernandez. You know what he can do. Away to Toronto and home against Orlando is a manageable schedule, I would just beware of potential rotation ahead of Campeones Cup. He’s in my team right now, but I think I may swap him out for more certain options. If he starts tonight he is probably worth the risk, as even if he comes off the bench he’ll have opportunities against Orlando.
Denis Bouanga. Another rotation risk, he has a primo matchup against Austin and will likely get some minutes off the bench against Dallas. He is not on my squad at the moment, but I may be overestimating the risk that Bouanga does not get opportunities on the weekend. And, like Rusnák and Messi, Bouanga hardly needs more than the game against Austin to have a great score for the week.
Luis Suarez. He’s been on fire recently and combines so, so well with Messi. If he’s starting tonight then I am probably willing to take the risk. Otherwise, I’ll be looking elsewhere. Easily a Dream Team candidate though, even with just one match.
Gabriel Pec. I know Joveljic scored last game, but Pec is still the Galaxy forward to own in my opinion. A stable option who gets on the score sheet and creates plenty of chances for others, he’s also much more likely to go 90/90 than Joveljic, having missed just four minutes of game time since Week 13. Not as explosive as some of the other forward options, but he should find himself at the center of a lot of great opportunities this week.
Rafael Navarro. Perhaps my differential pick of the week, Navarro has three goals in his past two games and Colorado has a very favorable schedule these next two matches. I’m especially excited about the potential that Toronto saves their legs on Saturday, playing away at altitude to a non-conference opponent, to rest up ahead of the Canadian Championship Final. He’s had some very disappointing stretches – including the six matches before the previous two where he averaged 2.6 ppg, missed a PK, didn’t score a goal and didn’t score more than 5 points in a game – but I expect Colorado to lean on him with Cabral out with injury. I also don’t see him as a rotation risk.
Willy Agada. After a brief injury hiatus he got back on the field in Seattle. Two shots on goal and 2 KPs in his 32 minutes suggests he will be back on track when he’s able to start again. SKC have two home games and Agada is by far their most dangerous striker. He’s overlooked for having long stretches of ineffectiveness, perhaps playing 45 minutes or coming off the bench late, but he also has five games of double-digit fantasy scoring. He leads SKC with 9 goals, despite playing 400 minutes fewer than Pulido and 600 fewer than Salloi. His npxG/90 is 0.70, second best in the league, behind Tai Baribo in Philly (who has just 900 minutes). Agada has more minutes than Messi and a better npxG than Messi. Of course, Agada is not converting at quite the same rate, but his npG/90 of 0.59 is not far from Golden Boot leaders Arango (0.68), Benteke (0.67), and Cucho (0.64). If Agada can figure out how to stay on the field, he could be among the league leaders in goals scored. SKC might rotate on the weekend ahead of the USOC Final, so maybe not a great option.
Alonso Martinez. He was a flop last week, but he is another player who is beloved by the stats, having an npxG/90 of 0.61 and actually scoring non-penalty goals at 0.94/90. Only Messi and Suarez have been scoring non-penalty goals at a higher rate. NYCFC have two home games, against Philly and Miami. Neither opponent is a defensive stalwart. My biggest worry is that NYCFC has been weak lately, failing to reach 2.0 xG in their past six games, winless in their past seven. In that stretch Martinez had a great game with a brace against Chicago, a goal on the road against the Crew, and a lot of bad fantasy scores otherwise. He doesn’t earn many BPs, so you are relying on his goals. This could be a very good week for him, though!
Captain considerations
- Leo Messi – He is the obvious and only choice if you think he plays at least three halves this week. He showed no signs of rust or needing a ramp up last week. If he is on the bench tonight, then I think you may need to look elsewhere since he won’t be guaranteed any minutes. Still, he is so good and consistent that he may still be worth the armband anyway.
- Riqui Puig – The Galaxy showed why they are atop the Western Conference last week in slicing LAFC apart, and Puig was at the center of it all. It was his second straight match with 119 passes, 15 KPs, 4 shots on goal, 4 fouls suffered… he did it all. Two high intensity matchups against Cascadian playoff teams this week should be a recipe for fireworks. Even better if Vancouver rotates on the weekend.
- Djordje Mihailovic – Another ultra-consistent contender, Mihailovic has been incredible recently. And as I noted above, Colorado’s matchups are excellent this week and you could get lucky enough to see Mihailovic take advantage of a bunch of Toronto backups on Saturday. Count me in.
- Carles Gil – Excellent potential against Montreal, I could easily see New England scoring another four goals in this one. Gil should be in for 180 minutes. If the Revs win both of these games, they’ll suddenly be in the thick of a playoff hunt, as they are six points back of DCU with two games in hand on DCU and one against everyone else.
- Mateusz Bogusz – I think he is the guy to captain from LAFC’s week, more likely for more minutes and still with a super high ceiling. Bouanga is another totally reasonable option, but I am more concerned about his rotation and like some other strikers a bit better.
Best of luck to everyone this week! We’re almost there!
