UFC 305 Picks: Odds, Predictions for Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya

The Ultimate Fighting Championship heads down under for UFC 305 in Perth, Australia. Twelve fights will occur inside the Octagon at RAC Arena, headlined by the highly-anticipated UFC Middleweight Championship between Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya.

While du Plessis and Adesanya’s title fight is a must-watch, there are other bouts worth monitoring on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6:30 p.m. on ESPN+). Check out the latest betting odds for tonight’s fight card and three of our favorite UFC 305 picks.

UFC 305 Betting Odds

All eyes are on du Plessis vs. Adensanya, the 12th and final fight at UFC 305. Du Plessis — 7-0 since his UFC debut in 2020 — claimed his first Middleweight Championship at UFC 297 in January in a split decision vs. Sean Strickland. Meanwhile, Adesanya (13-3 in UFC) is seeking his third Middleweight belt after losing to Strickland at UFC 293 last September.

Adesanya was originally the betting favorite and still has a slight edge to some oddsmakers. However, DraftKings has equal -110 odds on both Middleweight contenders.

The Flyweight bout between Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg should produce an eventful atmosphere. Erceg was born and raised in Perth, so expect the crowd to root for its hometown fighter as he enters the Octagon for the first time since losing the UFC Flyweight Championship to Alexandre Pantoja in May.

The rest of the main card fights — Gamrot vs. Hooker, Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik and Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates — have clear betting favorites. However, a few prelim fights are up for dispute.

Favorite UFC 305 Picks, Best Bets

Here are three of our favorite betting picks for du Plessis vs. Adesanya and the rest of a loaded UFC 305 card:

Israel Adesanya to Win vs. Dricus du Plessis (-110)

This is as competitive of a title fight as you’ll see in the UFC. Du Plessis and Adesanya are neck-and-neck according to the latest betting odds, but I like Adesanya just a hair more.

The 35-year-old is no stranger to title fights. Tonight will be Adesanya’s 12th consecutive championship fight, dating back to UFC 236 in April 2019. Meanwhile, the 30-year-old du Plessis is seven months removed from his first and only UFC title bout.

Experience aside, Adesanya is a technical striker who’s extremely difficult to take down. Du Plessis likes to make fights ugly and get his opponents on the mat, which might be difficult against his shiftier opponent. Adesanya, who resides in nearby New Zealand, should also have most of the crowd in his favor.

While last year’s title fight in Australia didn’t go his way, Adesanya is in a great spot to claim his third Middleweight belt.

Bonus bet: Fight to Go the Distance – Yes (+120)

Steve Erceg to Win by Decision vs. Kai Kara-France (+120)

As the moneyline odds climb, bettors should target a “Method of Victory” prop for Kara-France vs. Erceg. In this case, we’re taking the Australian Erceg to win by decision against the New Zealander Kara-France.

Both fighters are superb strikers, but Erceg has the edge in grappling. Look for the hometown hero to bring this fight to the mat and make life difficult for five rounds.

Valter Walker to Win vs. Junior Tafa (+105)

Walker opened as the betting favorite but heads into UFC 305 as an underdog against Tafa. Despite a shaky performance against Lukasz Brzeski in April, the Brazilian should perform much better tonight.

Walker has a definitive size advantage, measuring three inches taller and 15 pounds heavier than Tafa. He needs to use his size to get Tafa on the ground, where his grappling should help him power his way to victory.

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