Will The New COVID XEC Variant Cause A Fall 2024 Surge?

XEC may sound like some kind of rock band, cryptocurrency or male enhancement supplement. But the XEC COVID-19 variant is something that you probably don’t want to see at a party or near your privates. It’s the latest COVID variant to gain attention for spreading around the world. And a big question after the so-called “Summer of COVID” is whether the XEC variant is going to fuel the next COVID surge in the coming months.

This past Summer—yes, Summer 2024 is now in the past—earned the “Summer of COVID” moniker since it saw what appeared to be the biggest Summer COVID surge since July 2022. That’s based on wastewater data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention because many people have basically stopped getting tested for COVID. Without enough testing and reporting of testing results occurring, any count of COVID-19 cases is probably a substantial undercount of the actual number.

The Summer surge was led by the so-called FLiRT variants, mainly KP.3.1.1, and KP.3. It also didn’t help that the majority of people were flirting with catching the virus by not really taking any precautions against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For example face mask use appears to have gone the way of skinny jeans, even though studies have clearly shown that N95 respirators can decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

This Fall may be currently seeing a fall in cases after the surge. But the emphasis here is on the words “may be.” That’s because after four years of COVID the U.S. still doesn’t have a reliable COVID surveillance system in place. COVID certainly has not gone away. While vaccination and prior exposure has reduced the risk of more severe COVID-19 outcomes, the SARS-CoV-2 can still land some people in the hospital. It also still seems to be leading to long COVID in a number of people.

And, now, surprise, surprise, there’s a new spiky kid on the block: the aforementioned XEC variant. The XEC is basically the love-child of the KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 COVID variants.

The XEC was first detected in Berlin, Germany, in June. But what happened in Berlin didn’t stay in Berlin. This ball of not fun has already appeared in 27 different countries across Europe, North America and Asia. That has included popping up in 12 states in the United States so far, according to Scripps Research’s “Outbreak.info” web page. And while it’s not the dominant variant of COVID yet, it does appear to have a fitness advantage over other circulating variants.

Now, a fitness advantage doesn’t mean that this variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) wears tights and can do more glute bridges. It means that for some reason it can spread faster or more readily than other variants. The reason is not clear yet. Perhaps those infected with this variant may shed more of the virus. Maybe the XEC variant can get into cells more easily. Or it could be that this variant is better at evading existing immune protection from either vaccination or previous infection. More data and studies are needed to determine which of the above may be the case. But the fact that the XEC variant seems to be spreading fairly rapidly suggests that does indeed have some kind of fitness advantage.

More data and studies are also needed to determine whether the XEC variant is more or less likely to cause severe COVID symptoms and outcomes than current and previous variants. Again this will be difficult to tell without more widespread testing and a more comprehensive surveillance system than what’s in place now. The updated COVID vaccines that are now available should provide at least some protection against the XEC variant. Exactly how much remains to be seen.

There’s a very good chance that yet another COVID surge will begin in the coming months. Over the past several years, this has occurred in November. That’s not surprising because November is when the weather turns significantly colder and drier and many more activities move indoors.

But don’t assume that COVID activity won’t pick up again before November. And don’t assume that there will be any forewarning right before the next surge, given the lack of a more reliable and comprehensive surveillance system. So, you may want to be XEC careful yourself and take precautions if you don’t want to get COVID and potentially long COVID.