Fever vs. Mercury prediction, odds, spread, line: 2024 WNBA picks, Caitlin Clark best bets for Aug. 16

The Indiana Fever resume their quest to return to the WNBA playoffs when they host the Phoenix Mercury on Friday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Indiana has not qualified for the postseason since 2016 when it lost in the first round. But this year, behind rookie sensation Caitlin Clark, the Fever (11-15) sit in seventh place in the WNBA standings. They are a half game ahead of the eighth-place Sky and three games ahead of the ninth-place Dream. The top eight teams at the conclusion of the regular season on Sept. 19 will qualify for the playoffs. Meanwhile Phoenix (14-12) is coming off an 85-65 victory over Chicago on Thursday. 

Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Indiana is a 3-point favorite in the latest Fever vs. Mercury odds, while the over/under is 173.5. Before you lock in any Mercury vs. Fever picks or WNBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s Calvin Wetzel has to say.

Wetzel, HerHoopStats.com’s lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women’s hoops to turn the site’s prediction model into picks. After teaming up with Aaron Barzilai, a Ph.D. from Stanford, Wetzel is an incredible 1,385-988 (+372.33 units) on women’s college basketball picks since the start of the 2021-22 season. He’s also coming off a great 2023 season with a 238-185-1 overall record that featured a return on investment of nearly 7%. Anyone following him has seen huge returns.

Now, Wetzel has broken down Fever vs. Mercury from every angle and just revealed his picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the lines and trends for Mercury vs. Fever:

• Fever vs. Mercury spread: Indiana -3
• Fever vs. Mercury over/under: 173.5 points
• Fever vs. Mercury moneyline: Indiana -165, Phoenix +140
• IND: Caitlin Clark leads the WNBA in assists per game (8.2)
• PHO: Kahleah Copper ranks second in the league in scoring (23.2 points per game)
• Fever vs. Mercury picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Fever can cover

After a slow start, Indiana has turned its season around. Over their first nine games, the Fever went 1-8. But with more rest between games since then, they have gone 10-7, including two wins over Phoenix. One of the reasons for the team’s turnaround has been the improved play of Clark, who has averaged 11.9 assists per game over her last nine regular-season games.

In addition, Indiana will be the more rested team on Friday night. The Fever will be playing their first game after the Olympic break and have only one Olympian on their roster, Australian Kristy Wallace, who is not among their core. Meanwhile the Mercury will be playing the second half of a back-to-back after playing in Chicago on Thursday night. See picks at SportsLine.

Why the Mercury can cover

Phoenix has one of the best scorers in the league in Kahleah Copper. The four-time WNBA All-Star and former WNBA Finals MVP and ranks second in the league in scoring (23.2 points per game). In the gold medal game against France, Copper scored 10 fourth-quarter points to help Team USA to a one-point win.

In addition, Brittney Griner is one of the best bigs in the WNBA. The 6-foot-9 Griner averages 18.6 points and 6.4 rebounds a game this season while shooting 55.8% from the field. Earlier this month she helped Team USA to the gold medal at the Paris Olympics. See the picks at SportsLine.

How to make Fever vs. Mercury picks

Wetzel has analyzed Mercury vs. Fever from every angle, and he’s leaning Over on the point total. He has also found a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread as well as a player prop. He’s sharing what it is, and which side to back, only at SportsLine.

So who wins Fever vs. Mercury on Friday, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the expert with a history of crushing his women’s basketball picks, and find out.