Atlanta makes the importance of the 2024 season clear with Matthew Judon trade

Ever since Terry Fontenot arrived as the Atlanta Falcons general manager in 2021, he has preached the importance of balancing the present and the future. In practice, that has meant that the Falcons made their 2021 and 2022 teams a bit toothless as they sought to get out from under their most onerous contracts and endured some major dead money on the cap, with a deeply foolish detour or two along the way as they chased a quarterback they never should have pursued. The 2023 season was supposed to be the year two draft hauls and the hard work of freeing up cap space brought a brighter future together with a strong present, but the team finished 7-10 again and Arthur Smith was fired.

Fontenot, however, is still here. This past offseason gave proof that his desire to think ahead while dealing with present problems is still strong, given that the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins and then drafted Michael Penix in the first round. That also indicates Raheem Morris is on board with that thinking, The team has been careful to avoid huge, heavy cap penalties and dead money in the future, even if wiggling out of Kirk Cousins’ deal when it’s time to start Penix might be a bit of tricky business. Currently, the Falcons have $29,000 or so in dead money for 2025 and zero dollars for 2026, so they’ll retain some flexibility even if their cap space figures to be a bit limited next year. There should be some room to re-work this roster and guide this team’s direction. But things change rapidly in the NFL.

I wrote all of the above for a piece that was set to talk about the importance of that balancing act, and how it might be impacted by the major injuries to Bralen Trice, DeMarcco Hellams, and to a lesser extent Rondale Moore. Having invested in Kirk Cousins and spent big the past two offseason to bring this roster up to snuff, and an owner and fanbase fed up with losing, the Falcons were always likely to view 2024 as a critical year. What was not clear in the immediate aftermath of those injuries was whether the team would lean on internal options and affordable free agents, or whether they would view those ailments as an existential threat to the 2024 squad and shake things up. With the Matthew Judon trade, we have our answer.

It’s hard to overstate what a major deal this really is, because the Falcons have either declined to make similar trades or come up short on their pursuit of big name pass rushers in the very recent past. I’ve seen some suggestions that Atlanta overpaid with a third round pick for a player who missed most of 2023 with a major injury, but it feels like a fair price for a healthy Judon given what he has shown over and over again that he’s capable of. The Falcons had been pursuing pass rushers but found themselves unwilling or unable to exceed the draft capital or big money other teams were throwing around; with Judon, they’ve found a sweet spot. It’s unclear whether Trice’s injury forced that outcome or simply made it more pressing, but either way, a 30-plus year old pass rusher at the expense of a day two pick is simple math. It’s about winning right now.

The Falcons may well sacrifice future flexibility to give Matthew Judon a new deal, something that is not reportedly imminent.

Should they sign Justin Simmons, they may be doing so to an even greater extent, given that it’s hard to imagine them making a one-year deal work with their current cap situation even if they do extend A.J. Terrell in the near future. If things have to tighten up in 2025 to ensure 2024 success, so be it. If the tabula rasa available to them in 2026 with Michael Penix potentially taking over has to be a little less of a blank slate to keep them competitive with Cousins and company in 2025, that’s the way it is. This is a window for Raheem Morris, Terry Fontenot, and Arthur Blank to size on, and seize they will.

I don’t want to overstate things, because there are tools available to free up cap space and no real danger of the Falcons finding themselves in cap hell just as they go to start their prized young quarterback in a couple of years. But it’s worth remarking upon this particular moment, because the Falcons went hard after success in 2023 and found themselves coming up short in a brutal way.

The Judon trade alone tells you that the fear of that outcome—and the very understandable desire to avoid it—means the Falcons will prize the present over the far-flung future. Given how win-starved we all are and given the talent on hand to make a run in a still-weak NFC South, it’s a refreshing move and moment for the franchise.