Where Sam Darnold Must Improve in 2024

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The most basic aspect of being a quarterback is to complete a pass.

Some quarterbacks can rifle the ball downfield with high accuracy.

Some are outstanding at anticipation throws.

Some can elude pass rushers with outstanding pocket presence.

Others are great with their legs and offer tremendous rushing upside.

Whether advanced level or basic passes, at the core, your quarterback BETTER be able to complete passes.

The average completion rate in the NFL over the last decade is 63.9%.

Sam Darnold has played 66 games over 6 seasons.

He’s NEVER had a season with even 62% comp.

Not as a rookie in 2018. But more importantly, not recently either.

Not in 2023. Not in 2022. Not ever.

His career average is 59.7% comp.

That ranks #47 out of 48 QBs over the last decade.

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Meanwhile, the quarterback he will be replacing (Kirk Cousins) ranks #4 of 48 with a 67.4% completion rate.

If you look just at the last two years for Darnold, he’s dropped back to pass the ball 210 times.

Among 52 QBs with at least 200 dropbacks, Darnold’s 59.1% completion rate ranks #48, aka #5 worst.

And what is most concerning about that sample isn’t the completion rate. It’s the reason these passes were not being completed.

Only 3.2% of his passes were incompletions due to receiver error. That was the #2 lowest rate of receiver error of those 52 QBs.

Darnold has been terrible under pressure.

Looking at a three-year sample, Darnold’s completion rate was only 46% when pressured.

He averaged just 6.0 YPA with -0.38 EPA/dropback, numbers that were considerably worse than what Cousins was delivering last year.

A related problem for Darnold is he welcomes too much pressure when throwing from 11 personnel, which is Kevin O’Connell’s desired personnel grouping.

Even if you remove third downs and focus on early downs in 11 personnel, Darnold has taken pressure on 38% of his dropbacks, which ranks #58 out of 62 qualifying QBs the last three years.

We also know that O’Connell likes to use play action, and Cousins used it at the #8 highest rate in the NFL with O’Connell.

Darnold with play action the last three years, out of 62 QBs, ranks

• #54 in YPA (7.1)
• #51 in EPA/play (-0.02)
• #49 in completion rate (61%)
• #44 in success rate (44%)

Finally, let’s look at how Cousins most often targeted his #1 WR, Justin Jefferson.

The most frequent & most efficient routes were: Out routes, go routes, and crossing routes.

Go routes: Darnold’s go routes have been some of the worst in the NFL. Darnold’s accuracy ranked #45 on go routes the last three seasons. His EPA/play ranked #55. His success rate ranked #58, as did his completion rate (29.8%). His marks aren’t low because he had WRs that were dropping the passes. His passes weren’t being completed because they were thrown inaccurately.

Crossing routes: One of the higher efficiency routes from Cousins to Jefferson has been crossing routes (+0.70 EPA/att, 65% success) with an average aDOT of 7.6 yards. Darnold’s thrown a fair number of crossing routes in the last three years (68 attempts), but the efficiency has been terrible (-0.09 EPA/att, 38% success) with a similar 7.8 aDOT. And the accuracy has likewise been terrible. In the last three years, on crossing routes Darnold’s accuracy ranks #56 of 62 QBs. Cousins ranked #5 of 56 QBs.

Out routes: Out routes may be the best bet. Darnold at least was not one of the worst QBs in the NFL in accuracy on these routes, ranking #36 of 62 QBs (not good but not terrible), but there was one big difference. Darnold’s out routes averaged just 4.9 air yards/att the last three years, whereas out routes from Cousins to Jefferson averaged 8.9 air yards/att.

Unless Darnold improves in his ability to be more efficient when passing from 11 personnel, when passing with play action, and in his accuracy when throwing go routes and crossing routes, particularly to Jefferson, the Vikings are going to find themselves needing substantial efficiency from their run game and outstanding performance from their defense in 2024