2024-08-15 18:55:02
After battering Puerto Rico with torrential rain, Hurricane Ernesto is now heading toward Bermuda.
Ernesto strengthened overnight, with winds now at 85 mph. It’s expected to rapidly intensify over open water and become a major hurricane by Friday before the center passes over or near Bermuda Saturday, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
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A major hurricane is one with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, making it a Category 3 storm or higher.
The hurricane is located east of southern tip of Florida and is expected to remain well offshore as it moves north.
That doesn’t mean Florida or the eastern coast of the U.S. won’t feel any impacts from Ernesto. Swells generated by the hurricane are expected to reach the area Thursday night and into the weekend. Beachgoers can expect a “significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents,” the Hurricane Center said.
The formation of the latest storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season came just over a week after Hurricane Debby made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend Monday, Aug. 5.
National Hurricane Center launches new ‘cone of concern’ with Hurricane Ernesto
The National Hurricane Center launched its new “cone of concern” for Hurricane Ernesto Thursday, Aug. 14.
You won’t see many differences between the original and new cone with Ernesto since one of the biggest differences is that the new cone will show wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones are visible on the Hurricane Center’s website. Find the new cone by going to the graphics page for Hurricane Ernesto, then clicking on the New Experimental Cone highlighted in red.
“The biggest change to the cone is the addition of the inland wind warnings. The National Weather Service has issued those for years,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
“We’re placing that information on the (NHC) cone for a more comprehensive view of the threat so people don’t have to go to two different websites. All the information is seamlessly merged together.”
Differences you’ll see:
- Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
- White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.
Hurricane Ernesto: What you need to know
- Location: 605 miles south-southwest of Bermuda
- Maximum sustained winds: 85 mph
- Movement: north at 13 mph
- Pressure: 975 mb
- Next advisory: 11 a.m.
Watches, warnings issued across Florida
No watches or warning connected to Hurricane Ernesto have been issued for Florida.
A hurricane warning has been issued for:
A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
How strong is Hurricane Ernesto and where is it going?
At 8 a.m., the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 69.3 West.
Ernesto is moving toward the north near 13 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or northward motion on Friday and Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph, with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.
Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Ernesto
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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Predicted impact on Florida from Hurricane Ernesto
Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“Entering the hazardous surf is strongly discouraged,” the National Weather Service Melbourne said.
Boating conditions are expected to deteriorate later Thursday and through the night, the National Weather Service Melbourne said.
A small craft advisory will be issued over the entire offshore overnight Thursday as seas built up to 7 feet. From Friday through Wednesday, poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue as seas build up to 6 to 8 feet.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Ernesto
- Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late Friday, and a hurricane warning has been issued for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
- Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect Bermuda later today and may result in flash flooding Friday through this weekend.
- Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
- Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days.
Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Ernesto get?
- At 5 a.m.: 85 mph (Category 1 hurricane)
- 12 hours: 100 mph (Category 2 hurricane)
- 24 hours: 110 mph
- 36 hours: 115 mph (Category 3 hurricane)
- 48 hours: 110 mph
- 60 hours: 105 mph
- 72 hours: 105 mph
- 96 hours: 105 mph
- 120 hours: 75 mph (post tropical)
What impact could Hurricane Ernesto have and what areas could be affected?
- Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.
- Storm surge: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
- Rainfall: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding.
- Surf: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves:
- First wave: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is moving west at 5 to 11 mph.
- Second wave: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is moving west at 17 mph.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Swells from Hurricane Ernesto are expected to reach the Florida coast late Thursday, bringing dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents.
It’s too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Excessive rainfall forecast
What’s next?
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What do the watches and warnings from NHC mean?
What is storm surge?Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
