2024-07-15 08:50:02
The Home Run Derby field is one of the more loaded ones we’ve had in recent years.
Two-time champion Pete Alonso returns for another title run; young shortstops Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. have become two of the sport’s biggest stars; Marcell Ozuna could be headed to his second straight 40-homer season; the great Jose Ramirez is back for a second try in the contest; Adolis Garcia, last year’s postseason hero, will represent the host Texas Rangers; and Teoscar Hernandez and Alec Bohm round out the field.
The Derby will have new rules this year, most notably scrapping the bracket format. Now, the top four sluggers from the first round will advance to the semifinals (avoiding a situation like 2021, when Shohei Ohtani had the third-highest total in the first round but lost his head-to-head matchup). In the semifinals, the four hitters will then be seeded via first-round totals for head-to-head matchups, with the winners reaching the finals.
The first round and semifinals will last 3 minutes, with a maximum of 40 pitches thrown. Hitters will get a bonus period with three outs, with each pitch either being a home run or an out (hitters receive an extra out if they hit a 425-foot home run in this period). The finals will feature a 2-minute round, with a maximum of 27 pitches, with the same bonus period to follow. This format should reward home run efficiency over volume of pitches.
Let’s break the field down in order of betting odds.
Max exit velocity: 116.3 mph
Average launch angle: 15.1 degrees
Why he could win: Alonso is competing in his fifth consecutive Home Run Derby — clearly, the one player who absolutely loves this contest. He won in 2019 and 2021 before losing to Julio Rodriguez in the semifinals in 2022 and in the first round in 2023, when J-Rod slugged a single-round record 41 home runs. The oddsmakers are betting on that experience as the favorite, and it’s difficult to disagree with that.
Why he could struggle: Alonso is 29. No player that old has won since Todd Frazier in 2015. If the Derby is indeed more of a young man’s event, maybe Alonso is too old to tie Ken Griffey Jr. with a third title.
My prediction: Alonso is hitting a career-high rate of groundballs in 2024. Does that matter in the Derby? I don’t think it does. Rodriguez is a high groundball hitter and had huge rounds in 2022 and 2023. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high rate of grounders and won last year and had a memorable run in 2019 before losing to Alonso in the final. He’s probably the safest bet to advance past the first round, but I have him losing in the semis. Griffey will remain alone with three titles.
Max exit velocity: 116.1 mph
Average launch angle: 15.1 degrees
Is competing at home a real benefit? Having covered several of these, getting the extra boost from the fans seems to help. In recent years, Frazier (2015) and Bryce Harper (2018) won at home while Rodriguez’s record round last year also came at his home park. And, yes, Garcia is hitting just .215, but Harper was batting .214 at the break when he prevailed.
Why he could struggle: Garcia competed last year and had the second-lowest total in the first round. He’s also had a rough season at the plate, not that hitting in real games is the same as hitting BP pitches, as his chase rate has regressed after he showed improvement during last year’s career-best season. The new bat speed metric also has him in just the 61st percentile — much lower, for example, than Alonso’s 90th percentile. Plus, with the disappointing season, he may press to win over the home fans.
My prediction: He gets out of the first round but loses in the semifinals.
Max exit velocity: 114.6 mph
Average launch angle: 15.7 degrees
Why he could win: He’s basically a match for Alonso and Garcia as a right-handed power hitter with strength and optimal launch angle. He’s also having the best season of the three. His advanced metrics are all elite: Barrel rate, hard-hit rate, sweet-spot rate and average exit velocity, all in the 95th percentile or higher.
Why he could struggle: He’s the oldest hitter here at 33 (only three hitters older than Ozuna have won, the last being David Ortiz in 2010). He’s been outstanding the past two seasons, but he’s hit much better in Atlanta, where the ball carries pretty well, slugging nearly 200 points higher at home. Globe Life Park also slightly favors left-handed hitters for home runs over the past three seasons (although only Henderson and the switch-hitting Ramirez will benefit from that).
My prediction: I’m sticking with my theory that the Derby is for young sluggers. It’s also a tough field. I have Ozuna going out in the first round.
Max exit velocity: 113.1 mph
Average launch angle: 9.5 degrees
Why he could win: Henderson’s home run total is a little surprising given his relatively low launch angle for an elite slugger, but he makes up for that with consistent hard contact — 99th percentile in hard-hit rate. Throw in his elite bat speed (96th percentile), youth (he just turned 23) and that little wind tunnel to right field and his chances look pretty good. He’s been tuning up for the Derby taking BP from Norfolk manager Buck Britton, his pitcher for the contest.
Why he could struggle: Can he sneak enough line drives over the right-field fence? He doesn’t quite match the max exit velocities of some of the other hitters here either. “He hits the ball so hard, but he hits it at really low angles, so just getting the ball in the air,” Britton told reporters the other day. “He’s so strong. Essentially, he’s just got to touch it in the air and it’s got a chance to go no matter where he hits it.” If Henderson gets into a line-drive groove instead of a fly-ball groove, it could be a quick exit.
My prediction: I like the youth. I like the swing. I like the preparation. I love the lefty bat in this park. Henderson is my pick to win it all.
Max exit velocity: 116.9
Average launch angle: 15.2
Why he could win: Look at those numbers above. He has elite maximum exit velocity and a perfect 15-degree launch angle. He has the skills of a generational young talent along with significant power — his longest home run of the season is 468 feet, the longest of any of the participants. He’s hit more 425-foot home runs this season than anyone in the field. Remember, hitting a 425-foot home run in the bonus period unlocks an extra out — and that could be the difference between advancing or going out.
Why he could struggle: Witt ranks seventh of the eight players in actual home runs hit this season. He’s just the fifth Royals player to participate in the Derby — and none of the previous four advanced past the first round.
My prediction: Henderson versus Witt is already turning into a debate that reminds us of the Derek Jeter vs. Alex Rodriguez vs. Nomar Garciaparra arguments from 25 years ago. Let’s see that carry over into the Derby. The two young shortstops will face off in the final.
Max exit velocity: 112.7
Average launch angle: 9.8
Why he could win: Hey, sleeper players have won before — think of names like Bobby Abreu, Justin Morneau and Frazier — and Hernandez has had a nice season for the Dodgers hitting in the shadow of Ohtani. “I see the fun that the guys have and how they enjoy it, and why not just go through the experience and try to win everything?” Hernandez said. He has fun playing — maybe the perfect attitude needed to win it all. The only franchise to have more Derby contestants than the Dodgers without a win is the Rockies, so maybe it’s time.
Why he could struggle: A lot of the metrics don’t point in his favor: His launch angle is down a bit this season, his advanced metrics like exit velocity (83rd percentile) and bat speed (76th percentile), while strong, don’t match some of the hitters here. He’s also 31.
My prediction: I like Hernandez as a sleeper at these odds, but the numbers point to a first-round exit.
Max exit velocity: 116.6
Average launch angle: 18.1
Why he could win: The new rules that favor precision could benefit Ramirez, who generates power in the regular season from that optimal launch angle rather than strength and elite bat speed (he’s actually below average in the new bat speed metric). The switch-hitter has said he’ll wait to see how he feels at Globe Life before deciding which side to hit from, but he’s generated more power from the left side throughout his career, which could help him in this park. (He hit right-handed when he competed in 2022, but he did that because he was battling a thumb injury and hit with less pain from that side.)
Why he could struggle: Ramirez has the slowest bat and the lowest average exit velocity of the eight hitters in the field. That’s usually not a good combination for the Derby, no matter how well his plays in games — see Mookie Betts last season or Alex Bregman in 2018 and 2019 for smaller guys who didn’t do well in this contest.
My prediction: I’m glad Ramirez is giving it another shot — while apparently healthy this time — but the odds are against him. I’m forecasting a first-round exit.
Max exit velocity: 110.8 mph
Average launch angle: 12.4 degrees
Why he could win: Hey, it feels like it might be the Phillies’ year, right? Bohm knows he’s a long shot, but he has explained that his BP swing will be different from his game swing, which is geared more for line drives and contact. Plus, he’s won a Home Run Derby in a college summer league in 2016. Scott Wingo, who threw to him that day, will be his pitcher.
Why he could struggle: There’s a reason Bohm has the longest odds. He has the fewest home runs among the eight hitters and going back to 2015, when players were seeded by home runs hit for the bracket format, the No. 8 guy has never won (although Guerrero reached the final in 2019). While his launch angle has increased this season, Bohm still lacks the ideal angle and power of most of the other hitters.
My prediction: It would be a fun story, but I agree with the oddsmakers and have Bohm losing in the first round.
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