Throughout the course of the Ohio State football season, we like to keep an eye on what the ESPN computers say about the Buckeyes’ chances of winning each of its remaining games. It’s one thing to get a look at what the bleeps and bloops of the computer say before the season begins, and now that we have some game film to look at for all of the opponents, there’s some actual concrete data to go by.
Even more as the weeks pass by.
Ohio State came up just a wee-bit short on Saturday against Oregon because of a myriad of mistakes and bizarre plays, and now it has to pick up the pieces and continue moving forward with little margin for error. The result is sure to change what the ESPN “supercomputer” says about the chances of the Buckeyes winning each of its remaining games so we’re taking a look once again.
Do the computers still believe the Buckeyes can get past all of the rest of its remaining opponents, including the game at Penn State? What about the trip into Happy Valley to play Penn State? What about upstart Indiana, a Nebraska team that’s playing well, and of course — Michigan?
Here’s a look at the updated percentage chances of OSU winning each of its remaining games according to the ESPN ‘matchup predictor after Week 7 of the season.
Saturday, Oct. 26 vs. Nebraska
USA TODAY SMG
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner – Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability – 94.8% (up from 94.6% last week)
All-Time Series – OSU leads 9-1
Projected Running Record: 6-1
The Narrative
Ohio State has two weeks to think about what happened out in Eugene and to try and fix some of the defensive miscues. Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola will try to duplicate what Dillon Gabriel did to the OSU offense. Can the Buckeyes rebound against a team that is on the upswing?
Saturday, Nov. 2 at Penn State
Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images
Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)
Predicted Winner – Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability – 70.4% (up from 70.1% last week)
All-Time Series – OSU leads 24-14
Projected Running Record: 7-1
The Narrative
Penn State has looked rather beatable over the last few weeks but doing so in Happy Valley will be a tall order. The Buckeyes absolutely have to have this one because they now have a razor thin margin of error after the loss to the Ducks. The running game and defense has to be better against the Nittany Lions than it was out in the Pacific Northwest.
Saturday, Nov. 9 vs. Purdue
USA TODAY SMG
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner – Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability – 99.0% (same as last week)
All-Time Series – OSU leads 41-15-2
Projected Running Record: 8-1
The Narrative
If there’s a chance to take a breather in the schedule, this is it. You can’t take any team lightly, but Ohio State gets a chance to work on some things and get ready for the stretch towards hopefully a spot in the Big Ten Championship game and College Football Playoff. Purdue figures to provide little resistance.
Saturday, Nov. 16 at Northwestern
David Banks-Imagn Images
Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois)
Predicted Winner – Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability – 94.8% (down from 96.8%)
All-Time Series – OSU leads 65-14-1
Projected Running Record: 9-1
The Narrative
Even though Northwestern seems to be playing better, it just doesn’t have the athletes to hang with a team as talented as Ohio State. This too should be a tune-up for what’s coming down the line. A game at Wrigley Field sounds like something I need to get to.
Saturday, Nov. 23 vs. Indiana
USA TODAY SMG
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner – Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability – 83.4% (up from 83.3% from last week)
All-Time Series – OSU leads 79-12-5
Projected Running Record: 10-1
The Narrative
With the explosive offense Indiana is going to bring to town, you have to wonder if the Hoosiers can do some of the similar things Oregon did on Saturday. This looked like one you’d want to put in the win column at the beginning of the year, but now it sure seems like it will be a decent test.
Saturday, Nov. 30 vs. Michigan
USA TODAY SMG
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner – Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability – 92.4% (down from 92.5% from last week)
All-Time Series – OSU trails 51-61-6
Total Projected Regular Season Record: 11-1
The Narrative
Michigan hasn’t looked like an immovable force this season, but it’s still “The Game.” Of course, the narrative here is that Ryan Day sorely needs a win over his arch rivals or there’s going to be an even larger chorus of armchair quarterbacks calling for his job.
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