Buccaneers vs. Saints odds, line, start time: 2024 NFL picks, Week 6 predictions from proven model

The New Orleans Saints (2-3) will have a rookie quarterback under center when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) in an NFC South battle on Sunday afternoon. New Orleans lost Derek Carr to an oblique injury in the loss to Kansas City, giving rookie Spencer Rattler a chance to make the first start of his career. Rattler will try to help the Saints snap a three-game losing streak in their first home game since Week 3. Tampa Bay has dropped two of its last three games, falling to Atlanta in overtime last week. 

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Caesars Superdome. The Buccaneers are favored by 3.5 points in the latest Saints vs. Buccaneers odds, while the over/under is 42.5 points via SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Buccaneers vs. Saints picks, you’ll want to see the NFL predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 10-2 hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 191-131 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 45-23 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model has set its sights on Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under:

• Saints vs. Buccaneers spread: Bucs -3.5
• Saints vs. Buccaneers over/under: 42.5 points
• Saints vs. Buccaneers money line: Bucs -182, Saints +152
• Saints vs. Buccaneers picks: See picks here
• Saints vs. Buccaneers streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Saints can cover

New Orleans has a losing record entering Week 6, but only one of its losses has come by more than three points. The Saints are going to be without starting quarterback Derek Carr (oblique), giving rookie Spencer Rattler an opportunity to make the first start of his career. The fifth-round pick drew praise from the coaching staff during training camp, and he threw 38 passes across three preseason appearances. 

Rattler had 202 passing yards and one passing touchdown while rushing seven times for 26 yards and another score in those games. New Orleans has one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league, which gives Rattler a chance to settle in. Star running back Alvin Kamara has 388 rushing yards and five touchdowns, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. See which team to pick here. 

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield had one good year in Cleveland before going 2-8 across stints with the Panthers and Rams. Mayfield revived his career when he led Tampa Bay to a playoff appearance last season, and he has been even better this season. He has completed 71.9% of his passes for 1,164 yards, 11 touchdowns against just two interceptions. 

Tampa Bay’s pass defense was shredded by Kirk Cousins last week, but New Orleans is going to have trouble moving the ball with a rookie quarterback. The Saints are likely going to be a one-dimensional offense on Sunday, which does not bode well against a rested Tampa Bay defense. The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 18 games, including nine of their last 12 road games. See which team to pick here.  

How to make Saints vs. Buccaneers picks

The model has simulated Buccaneers vs. Saints 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay on Sunday, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Buccaneers vs. Saints spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 191-131 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.