What does J.J. McCarthy’s knee injury mean for the Vikings?

Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy has an injury that could cost him part or all of his rookie season, a deflating turn of events for everyone who had been enthused by his preseason debut Saturday in the team’s 24-23 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.

McCarthy will undergo surgery this week, according to coach Kevin O’Connell, at which point doctors will decide how to address the torn meniscus in his right knee. That decision will determine his recovery timetable and whether he will be a factor in the Vikings’ 2024 season.

In the meantime, Sam Darnold will continue working with the team’s No. 1 offense in anticipation of starting the Vikings’ Week 1 game at the New York Giants.

ESPN Vikings reporter Kevin Seifert, draft analyst Jordan Reid and national reporter Jeremy Fowler take a look at the impact of McCarthy’s injury.

Would the Vikings try to rush McCarthy back?

That would be unlikely, especially given Darnold’s position as the No. 1 quarterback through training camp.

Regardless, O’Connell said Tuesday that he would not be part of the decision on what type of surgery McCarthy would eventually have, and added: “Certainly what’s best for the long-term health of J.J. McCarthy will be the priority.”

There are some advantages to getting McCarthy on the field before the end of the season, both for his development and giving the team a better gauge on whether he can be counted on to start in 2025. But that information is not more important than McCarthy’s knee returning to full health. — Seifert

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What does the injury mean for McCarthy’s development as a passer?

McCarthy’s recovery timeline is unknown, but missing extended time would be a significant blow to his on-field development. One of the biggest questions about McCarthy as a prospect coming into the draft had to do with his inexperience as a passer. He wasn’t asked to shoulder the load at Michigan very often, as he had only 25 or more passing attempts in 12 of his 28 career starts for the Wolverines, so he needs all the live throws and snaps he can get.

McCarthy — who was drafted No. 10 overall due to his accuracy and upside — will be able to gain mental reps by sitting and watching behind Darnold, but the on-field reps will be impossible to replicate as he attempts to learn and execute O’Connell’s scheme. — Reid

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Could the Vikings add another QB to their room?

There isn’t a pressing need to add a quarterback in Minnesota. Darnold (63 career TD passes, 56 interceptions with a 21-35 career record) is entrenched as the starter, and the team is confident in Nick Mullens‘ ability to produce in spot duty. The 29-year-old Mullens has 20 career starts over a six-year career with the 49ers, Browns and Vikings. And Minnesota hasn’t totally given up on Jaren Hall, last year’s fifth-round pick who started twice in 2023.

Except for Ryan Tannehill, the options are scarce on the free agent market. It wouldn’t surprise to see the Vikings at least evaluate the outside options, but they have enough talent to sustain without McCarthy. — Fowler

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What does this mean for WR Justin Jefferson and the rest of the offense?

Very little. Darnold has been on track all summer to be the Vikings’ No. 1 quarterback, at least to open the season, as McCarthy was being brought along on a methodical timetable.

Darnold and Jefferson have begun establishing a clear rapport in training camp practices, with Jefferson noting Darnold’s ability to “put touch on the ball here and there” and understanding “what speed he needs to throw the ball and how he needs to throw the ball.”

O’Connell has been saying all summer that he wants to emphasize the running game no matter who is his starting quarterback. Even without McCarthy, Aaron Jones remains on track to pair up with Ty Chandler for 20-plus touches per game between the two of them. — Seifert

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What does this mean for the Vikings’ 2024 competitiveness?

The injury moves Darnold from a place-holder for McCarthy to a longer-term starter — perhaps for the entire season. As good as Darnold has looked during spring and summer practices — and for all the chemistry he has developed with Jefferson and still being only 27 years old — there remains a fair degree of uncertainty about how that will all translate in regular-season games.

Darnold has a 21-35 record as an NFL starter in admittedly unideal situations with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers, and he spent the 2023 season as a backup with the San Francisco 49ers. If Darnold has a tough go early in the season, or if he gets injured, the Vikings might not have McCarthy to relieve him. Instead, the remaining quarterbacks on their roster are Mullens and Hall, who were 1-4 as starters for Minnesota in 2023. — Seifert

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What does this mean for the 2025 offseason?

One way or another, the Vikings are headed for a series of really important decisions this offseason. McCarthy’s injury, at the very least, will make those decisions more difficult and could further push out the timing of their quarterback transition.

The first decision is obvious. Darnold is on a one-year contract. If McCarthy doesn’t play this season, or gets minimal work, would the Vikings be ready to anoint him their 2025 starter? Or would they need Darnold — or another veteran — to serve as a foil?

Secondly, both O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah are in the third year of four-year contracts. They were hired in 2022 partially to manage the transition from Kirk Cousins to the next starting quarterback. If McCarthy isn’t able to establish himself in 2024, how will owners Zygi and Mark Wilf evaluate O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah? Will they offer market-level extensions or have them work in 2025 on the final year of their deals? — Seifert