2024-10-13 09:20:03
SEC football returns between the hedges this weekend as No. 5 Georgia welcomes conference rival Mississippi State in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that picks winners.
Georgia rebounded from its loss at Alabama two weeks ago by defeating rival Auburn at home, moving to 4-1 overall and a 1-1 mark in SEC play, and is a big favorite heading into this matchup against Jeff Lebby’s team.
Mississippi State fell to 0-2 in SEC games after losses against Texas and Florida and sits 110th nationally in scoring defense, allowing nearly 32 points per game, while posting the 90th ranked rushing offense and the 84th scoring attack in the nation.
What do the analytics suggest for this SEC matchup?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Georgia and Mississippi State compare in this Week 7 college football game.
As expected, the simulations are siding strongly with the home team in this game.
SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Mississippi State by a projected score of 43 to 13 and will win the game by an expected 30.1 point margin.
The model gives Georgia a near universal 97 percent chance of outright victory in the game.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a 52.2 win percentage.
Georgia is a 33.5 point favorite against Mississippi State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).
And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -20000 and for Mississippi State at +4000 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
Bettors are almost evenly divided on how to interpret the game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.
A slight majority of bets — 51 percent — suggest that Georgia will win the game and cover the big spread in the process.
The other 49 percent of wagers expect Mississippi State will keep the game within the line.
Other analytical models also predictably side with Georgia against Mississippi State this week.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Georgia is projected to win outright in the overwhelming 95.1 percent of the FPI computer’s most recent simulations of the game.
That leaves Mississippi State as the expected winner in the remaining 4.9 percent of sims.
Georgia is projected to be 26.9 points better than Mississippi State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
Georgia is second among SEC teams with a 74.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives Mississippi State a win total projection of 2.8 games and a 0.4 percent chance to play in a bowl game this year.
When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 4:15 p.m. ET | 3:15 p.m. CT
TV: SEC Network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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