2024-08-13 17:10:02
A week after Hurricane Debby made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend, a new tropical storm developed in the Atlantic.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five strengthened to become Tropical Storm Ernesto Monday afternoon as it approaches the Leeward Islands, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
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Current projections have the fast-moving storm becoming a hurricane by Thursday morning. And while Ernesto is not tracking toward Florida, experts say continue to be prepare for this busy hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center NOAA hurricane hunters are investigating the disturbance.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for much of the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
AccuWeather forecasters said Tropical Storm Ernesto “could rapidly organize” to become the basin’s next major hurricane in the coming days as it sweeps through the Caribbean.
“By the middle of this week, forecasters warn that this feature could ramp up to at least a Category 1 hurricane as it travels across the warm waters of the far northeastern Caribbean Sea and shifts north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola” and has the potential to ramp up into a major hurricane.
A major hurricane is one with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, making it at least a Category 3 storm.
Current forecasts and models predict the storm will curve north in the Atlantic, staying east of Florida and the U.S.
No watches or warnings connected to Tropical Storm Ernesto have been issued for Florida.
The National Hurricane Center has issued the following watches:
Tropical storm warning:
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
At 5 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 57.5 West.
Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph. A westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.
Ernesto is then forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb.
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Potential Tropical Storm Ernesto
“Currently, the weather along the southeastern U.S. coast looks fairly nice this weekend, so even if the storm remains well offshore, coastal impacts such as rough surf and rip currents could spell trouble for beach-goers trying to soak up the last weekends of summer,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Emma Belscher.
An impact on Florida, the Bahamas and the southeastern U.S. depends on steering winds in the atmosphere, AccuWeather said.
While the storm is expected to take a track toward Bermuda, if its takes a bit more of a southern track initially, it could be pushed closer the East Coast, Belscher said.
Late this week, Florida could see rough surf, strong rip currents and dangerous seas, according to AccuWeather.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves:
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
It’s too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
What is storm surge?Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
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