Tropical Storm Ernesto charges at Caribbean islands

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico – We’re nearing the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and right on schedule, the tropics are becoming more active with the formation of Tropical Storm Ernesto, which is slowly becoming organized east of the Leeward Islands.

The tropics have been becoming more active over the past few weeks with the development of Hurricane Debby, which made its first landfall in Florida, and then a second landfall in South Carolina as a tropical storm.

And hot on its heels was Invest 98L and then Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, which began to organize as it moved over the warm waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eventually became what is now Tropical Storm Ernesto.

With improved circulation and organization, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said strengthening seems likely with Ernesto.

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What’s the forecast for Tropical Storm Ernesto?

According to the NHC, Tropical Storm Ernesto is moving west in the Atlantic toward the Caribbean islands and will bring tropical storm conditions and heavy rain to the Leeward Islands late Monday and into Tuesday. 

“Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands.  For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected,” the NHC said Monday evening.

The storm is forecast to cross the northern Leeward Islands overnight Monday and near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico sometime on Tuesday. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will be possible. 

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“After that time, a significant slowdown and a turn to the north over the Atlantic is expected as a deep-layer trough pushes off the U.S. east coast, causing the ridge to shift eastward,” the NHC said.

The latest track places Ernesto near Bermuda later this week and this weekend. The NHC said it’s too soon to tell what impacts Ernesto could have on Bermuda.

Where are watches and warnings in effect for Tropical Storm Ernesto?

Because of the threat that Tropical Storm Ernesto poses to the Leeward Islands, as well as the U.S. territories of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Tropical Storm Warnings are in place. 

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Heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding and mudslides on the islands through mid-week. 

Will Tropical Storm Ernesto impact the US?

The NHC says Tropical Storm Ernesto will move west toward the Caribbean islands and eventually turn northward once it gets to Puerto Rico. At this time, Ernesto is not expected to come in contact with the U.S.