Spaghetti models, projected path, impacts

A tropical wave in the western Atlantic strengthened into Tropical Storm Ernesto Monday afternoon and is continuing to strengthen Tuesday as it slows down.

Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday morning and could flirt with becoming a major hurricane by Friday, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

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While most spaghetti models show Ernesto on a path toward Bermuda by the weekend, dangerous surf and rip currents could affect Florida and the eastern coast of the United States.

The formation of the latest storm comes just over a week after Hurricane Debby made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend Monday, Aug. 5.

AccuWeather forecasters said Ernesto has the potential of “ramping up to a major hurricane for a time before setting its sites on Bermuda.”

A major hurricane is one with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, making it a Category 3 storm or higher.

Tropical Storm Ernesto: What you need to know

• Location: 35 miles northwest of Guadeloupe; 300 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico
• Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
• Movement: west at 18 mph
• Pressure: 1,005 mb
• Next advisory: 11 a.m.

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Watches, warnings issued across Florida

No watches or warning connected to Tropical Storm Ernesto have been issued for Florida.

The National Hurricane Center has issued the following warnings:

Tropical storm warning:

• St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda and Anguilla
• Guadeloupe
• St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
• Sint Maarten
• British Virgin Islands
• U.S. Virgin Islands
• Puerto Rico
• Vieques
• Culebra

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

How strong is Tropical Storm Ernesto and where is it going?

At 8 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 61.9 West.

Ernesto is moving toward the west near 18 mph. A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so.

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On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening.

After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph, with higher gusts.

Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday over the waters north of the Greater Antilles.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Ernesto

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

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Predicted impact on Florida from Tropical Storm Ernesto

“Currently, the weather along the southeastern U.S. coast looks fairly nice this weekend, so even if the storm remains well offshore, coastal impacts such as rough surf and rip currents could spell trouble for beach-goers trying to soak up the last weekends of summer,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Emma Belscher.

An impact on Florida, the Bahamas and the southeastern U.S. depends on steering winds in the atmosphere, AccuWeather said.

While the storm is expected to take a track toward Bermuda, if its takes a bit more of a southern track initially, it could be pushed closer the East Coast, Belscher said.

Late this week, Florida could see rough surf, strong rip currents and dangerous seas, according to AccuWeather.

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Ernesto

1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Leeward Islands today and to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late today or tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for this entire area.
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through Wednesday.
3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.

Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Ernesto get?

• At 5 a.m.: 40 mph
• 12 hours: 45 mph
• 24 hours: 60 mph
• 36 hours: 70 mph
• 48 hours: 80 mph
• 60 hours: 90 mph
• 72 hours: 105 mph
• 96 hours: 110 mph
• 120 hours: 110 mph:

What impact could Tropical Storm Ernesto have and what areas could be affected?

• Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening.
• Storm surge: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.
  • A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Rainfall: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
  • Windward Islands: 1 to 4 inches
  • Eastern Hispaniola: 2 to 4 inches

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• Surf: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning in the next several hours. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?

The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves:

• First wave: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is moving west at 11 mph.
• Second wave: Another tropical wave in the western Caribbean stretches from near Cuba into western Costa Rica and into the eastern Pacific. It’s moving west at 5 to 11 mph.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.

The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Who is likely to be impacted?

It’s too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Excessive rainfall forecast

What’s next?

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What do the watches and warnings from NHC mean?

What is storm surge?Graphics explain the deadly weather event

Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.

Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.