UFC Fight Night prediction — Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez: Fight card, odds, start time, live stream

Rose Namajunas is a bonafide flyweight contender. The former UFC women’s strawweight champion makes her third appearance at 125 pounds when she takes on streaking contender Tracy Cortez in her home base of Denver in the main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

Namajunas (13-6) earned her No. 6 ranking in the UFC’s official women’s flyweight Top 15 by defeating Amanda Ribas in her second flyweight appearance. It was a step in the right direction after losing to Manon Fiorot — who seems to only be behind Valentina Shevchenko in the title queue — in Namajunas’ flyweight debut. Namajunas previously trained alongside Kamaru Usman and Justin Gaethje under the guidance of coach Trevor Wittman in Denver. Namajunas gets a rare home game in her city.

“A win is a win. You know how the UFC works, you’re only relevant if you’re winning, or obviously if you do something special,” Namajunas told reporters at Thursday’s media day. “That’s definitely high on my priority list: number one is to protect myself at all times, but number two is to win, and then number three is to be spectacular and perform and be me, and do what I do best.”

Cortez (11-1) unexpectedly finds herself in the biggest fight of her career. Cortez replaced Maycee Barber on short notice, fighting a former champion in a five-round main event. Cortez is an interesting presence in the women’s flyweight division. She’s on an impressive 11-fight winning streak but has struggled with activity in the last four years. Nearly every fight has gone to a decision but her online presence generates respectable fanfare. Fighting someone of Namajunas’ ilk on a tight turnaround is not ideal, but a Cortez victory will meaningfully accelerate her career.

“She’s a veteran. This isn’t her first rodeo so I know she’s mentally aware of what’s to come,” Cortez said. “But she hasn’t fought a 125er like myself. She hasn’t fought someone like me at this weight division. Just as unprepared as I am, she is as well.

“I’ll be 6-0 in the UFC with a 12-1 pro record. Although I haven’t been as active, I think I deserve [a title shot]. If not, I’m not too worried about what’s next.”

The most interesting fight on Saturday’s card is the lightweight tilt between Drew Dober and Jean Silva. The fighters have 32 combined finishes and serious appetites for violence. Dober is coming off a decision loss to Renato Moicano but his five prior fights ended via knockout. Madman Silva makes a two-week turnaround, filling in for Mike Davis, after defeating Charles Jourdain via second-round KO at UFC 303 on June 29.

Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday with the latest odds before we get to a prediction and pick on the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

Rose Namajunas -210	Tracy Cortez +175	Women’s flyweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio -190	Muslim Salikhov +160	Welterweight
Drew Dober -115	Jean Silva -105	Lightweight
Gabriel Bonfim -360	Ange Loosa +280	Welterweight
Christian Rodriguez -210	Julian Erosa +175	Featherweight
Abdul Razak Alhassan -170	Cody Brundage +145	Middleweight

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: July 13 | Start time: 10 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: Ball Arena — Denver
TV channel: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)

Prediction

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez: Namajunas is not an optimal flyweight and Cortez is better suited for the weight class than Ribas was. Cortez has statistical advantages in striking output, striking accuracy, positive striking differential, takedown average and takedown defense. The stats identify Cortez’s efficient style but it’s crucial to acknowledge that Namajunas has faced far better opponents. Cortez must overcome two major hurdles: Namajunas’ experience against quality foes and five-round expertise. Namajunas has locked up multiple times with Zhang Weili, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Jessica Andrade and Carla Esparza, and has prepared for nine five-round fights. Cortez’s best win is arguably pre-UFC Erin Blanchfield and she’s never fought more than three rounds. 

Cortez must rely on her wrestling and size advantage to take rounds from Namajunas. The former strawweight champion’s power hasn’t translated to flyweight but she can work behind her jab to take rounds. I’m leaning towards Namajunas primarily due to Denver’s elevation. We’ve seen many fighters thwarted by their cardiovascular system’s inability to acclimate to Denver’s high altitude. Namajunas benefits from training regularly in that environment, Cortez’s short turnaround — despite being scheduled for a fight in Las Vegas one week later against Miranda Maverick — and the fight’s 25-minute time limit. Namajunas via Unanimous Decision