WNBA picks, odds for Wednesday

Only the Minnesota Lynx (10) have won more WNBA games since the All-Star/Olympics break than the Indiana Fever (eight).

After a dreadful 1-8 start, Indiana is now 19-17 and seeded sixth for the upcoming playoffs.

Indiana has shown that it can beat the top teams in the league on a given day, with victories over Minnesota, New York and Connecticut.

On Wednesday night, the Fever will hope to add Las Vegas to that list.

The Aces won each of the two previous meetings at home and comfortably covered both double-digit point spreads. 

The last time the teams played one another, Vegas closed as 13-point favorites, but now, they’re only laying as little as two points on the road.

While there’s a chance the sportsbooks have dramatically upgraded Indiana’s power rating, a better explanation for the point spread might be the status of A’ja Wilson’s right ankle.

The two-time MVP missed her first game in three years and will be a game-time decision against the Fever.

Given her uncertainty, if the Aces show any vulnerability, it’ll likely be early in the game during the first quarter.

Aces vs. Fever odds

Las Vegas Aces outlook

Las Vegas has had roughly a 10-point drop in net rating (15.3 to 5.5) compared to last season. 

There’s been a noticeable shift within the league, as the top four defensive teams have allowed between 94.5 and 95.8 points per 100 possessions, compared to 2023 when the top four had ratings ranging between 97.7 and 100.0.

Las Vegas was the team that led the league in defensive efficiency last year, but now it’s not even in the top four.

With defense improving around the league, Las Vegas isn’t scoring with the same proficiency as it once did and hasn’t managed to keep pace with the better defensive teams.

Indiana (103.8) has become electric on offense, trailing only the Liberty (106.7) and Aces (105.6) in efficiency.

However, when the Fever plays at home, their offensive rating jumps up to 106.2, which is the second-best mark in the W.

Indiana Fever outlook 

While there was plenty of criticism regarding the Fever’s start, its detractors often neglected to mention the brutal schedule the team had to face.

Indiana played seven games against the Sun, Liberty, Storm and Aces to start the season.

It was a steep learning curve for the Fever’s rookie point guard, Caitlin Clark, who had to adjust to the league’s physicality.

Nonetheless, those early struggles might’ve been the best thing for Clark’s development in earning respect around the league.

There’s no way anyone can dispute her quality now given all the WNBA records she’s either broken or tied in her rookie year:

• Most assists in a WNBA game (19)
• Most assists by a rookie in an All-Star game (10)
• Fastest Player to reach 400 points and 200 assists
• First rookie to record a triple-double
• Single-season 3-pointers by a rookie

With four games remaining in the regular season, Clark can still add to her accomplishments as she’s 52 points away from breaking the rookie scoring record (744 points) set by Seimone Augustus in 2006. 

Clark’s perimeter threat and ability to create easy scoring opportunities for her teammates have resulted in Indiana having a league-best Effective Field Goal Percentage (52.1%).

Aces vs. Fever pick

There’s a buzz anytime Clark steps onto the court, and that excitement is particularly heightened in front of her home fans at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

The Aces embarrassed the Fever in the two home games, but Indiana is a completely different team from the one they met earlier in the season.

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In the first quarter, Indiana ranks 10th with a -7.1 Net Rating, but when it’s at home, that number jumps to +7.5 with a 109.2 offensive efficiency, second behind only New York.

When Indiana lost both games to the Aces, it led by four points after the first quarter in one and trailed by only two points in the other.

The real question is whether Indiana can put together four good quarters against Las Vegas.

Nonetheless, there’s a decent chance Indiana starts fast, especially if Wilson doesn’t play. 

Best bet: Fever Q1 moneyline (+104, FanDuel)