Why is a government shutdown possible before the election?

Stop us if you’ve heard this before: The federal government could shut down sometime in the next few weeks if Congress can’t agree to a new spending bill. It is a familiar scenario that has played out repeatedly in recent years. But the latest iteration of this story has a wrinkle — the shutdown could come right as the presidential campaign heads into the home stretch.

Negotiations are off to a tough start. A spending proposal from House Speaker Mike Johnson has already stumbled, “facing resistance from both parties,” said The New York Times. His bill would extend federal funding through next March but would also include a provision “that would require proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote” — an anti-immigration measure known as the SAVE Act. Hard-line Republicans on Johnson’s right oppose the bill because it would continue funding at levels “they believe are too high.” Even if passed, though, the bill would be “dead on arrival” in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Looming over these calculations is Donald Trump. The GOP presidential nominee is “pressuring Republicans” for a shutdown if they do not receive the SAVE Act as part of the spending bill, NBC News said. “I would shut down the government in a heartbeat if they don’t get it,” he said. 

What did the commentators say?

Republicans are threatening a shutdown “unless Congress makes it harder to vote,” Ian Millhiser said at Vox. There is no evidence that undocumented migrants vote in “meaningful numbers” in American elections, nor that they have affected election outcomes, in large part because noncitizen voting already is “of course, illegal.” But the SAVE Act would place “significant new administrative burdens” on state and local election offices during the two months before the 2024 election. That could cause “chaos” in voting. And the fight over the bill might well create a different kind of chaos whether or not it passes: “The SAVE Act could put the U.S. in danger of a government shutdown.”

“Roughly 11 months have passed since former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s historic ouster in October 2023,” Elizabeth Elkind said at Fox News. That removal came immediately after McCarthy negotiated a “clean” funding extension that dropped right-wing GOP demands in order to keep the government operating. Now Johnson, McCarthy’s successor, also finds himself caught in the same “fraught political web” that ended McCarthy’s career. One complication for the speaker: It is clear some House Republicans are not too concerned with blowback from a shutdown. “The legacy media makes these shutdowns worse than they are,” said Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.).

What next?

“Johnson is vibing better with his members than McCarthy did a year ago,” said Politico. And he has one advantage that McCarthy did not. With the election looming — and members of Congress desperate to get back on the campaign trail to keep their seats — “few House Republicans are going to want to be stuck on the Hill much past next week.” 

It all feels like a “bad case of Groundhog Day,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in remarks quoted by The Hill. Democrats are counting on the threat of voter backlash to push Johnson and his fellow Republicans to meet them in the middle before Election Day. “The image of a shutdown of the government and turmoil in Congress,” said Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), “does not help his party in November.” Time is running out: The deadline to approve government funding is Sept. 30.