Trump vs Powell could be first big fight over economy

Just a few days after the election, the central bank cut rates Thursday by a quarter point, as expected. But all eyes were on Powell and what he might say about the incoming president. Fed officials go out of their way to avoid politics, but Powell was pressed by reporters about his future as chair.

During a news briefing, he was asked if he would resign if Trump demanded it, and Powell simply replied “no.” Later he was asked if he thought a president has the authority to fire or demote a Fed chair or other Fed official in a leadership post, and Powell said, “Not permitted under the law.”

“President-Elect Trump will begin making decisions on who will serve in his second Administration soon. Those decisions will be announced when they are made,” Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for the Trump-Vance transition, said in a statement to Fortune.

During his first term as president, Trump appointed Powell as Fed chair in 2018, replacing Janet Yellen who was installed by Barack Obama. But Trump later clashed with Powell as the Fed chief pushed back on demands for looser monetary policy.

Powell’s term as chair expires in May 2026 and his term as a Fed governor expires in January 2028—he could cling on, against Trump’s wishes, for that whole time.

Meanwhile, Trump has said that as president he should at least have an opinion on interest rates, and his economic adviser Scott Bessent has suggested that an early appointment of Powell’s replacement could serve as a “shadow Fed chair,” essentially making Powell a lame duck with less influence.

For now, the Fed is in an easing cycle that aligns with Trump’s desire to provide more support to the economy and financial markets.

But signs that the economy remains robust and that inflation is sticky could slow the pace of Fed rate cuts, with some on Wall Street warning that a pause in cuts may even be necessary.

After Thursday’s rate cut, some analysts said the Fed may ease again in December but keep rates steady in January, rather than cut further.

And if Trump enacts his expansive proposals on the economy, they’re widely seen adding inflationary pressure and limiting the Fed’s ability to lower rates further.

Trump has vowed to hike tariffs across the board, with duties on China especially poised to soar, raising prices on imported products. His planned immigration crackdown and mass-deportation campaign are seen putting upward pressure on wages.

In addition, he has promised to extend tax cuts from his first term and bring the corporate rate even lower. He has also teased a slew of eliminations, including taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security payments, as well as exemptions for the military, veterans, and first responders. He has even flirted with eliminating income taxes altogether. Such massive tax cuts would stoke more consumer demand and inflation, in addition to potentially increasing the deficit.

For his part, Powell maintained Thursday that the Fed doesn’t set monetary policy in anticipation of changes in fiscal policy but instead will respond as events and economic data play out.

“We don’t guess, we don’t speculate, we don’t assume,” he said.

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