Hawkeye Football: Iowa vs. UCLA Statistical Preview

January 1, 1986, I am 5.5 years old and Iowa is playing UCLA in the Rose Bowl. I’m not gonna lie, I have no memory of this game whatsoever. Sure, the names of the Iowa players are familiar (Chuck Long, Ronny Harmon, Quinn Early, etc…). I admit that only one name on the UCLA roster stands out (and I’m honeslty surprised this hasn’t been mentioned) by anyone – that I’ve heard – in the runup to this game, Flipper Anderson. It’s kind of cool, and interesting, that two back to back games (granted they’re ~39 years apart) feature a father and son on different side of the ball. I think what I recall the most about this game from my life is people arguing over whether Ronnie Harmon’s performance could be chalked up to something more nefarious than a kid just having a bad game (even Hayden Fry had to come to his defense).

Iowa’s history in the Rose Bowl isn’t, exactly, confidence inspiring (their last victory in Pasadena being in 1952) and our last 4 trips have been, well, less than fun. This will, however, be Iowa’s fist ever regular season game in the Rose Bowl and a win would be a first for Kirk Ferentz in the stadium. It may not be a bowl game, but it’ll be historic nonetheless, and it sounds like there may be an awful lot of Black & Gold in the stands.

Let’s see what the numbers tell us about this matchup.

Offense

Photo by Keith Gillett/IconSportswire

Iowa – 356.1 ypg (133.8 yds passing, 222.3 yds rushing), 30.8 ppg
UCLA – 309.1 ypg (235.3 passing, 73.9 rushing), 18.6 ppg

Last Saturday Iowa put on a rushing clinic, racking up 329 yards on the ground (6.1 ypc) with 4 different players (KJ2, KM28, JP9, & QB1) rushing for 50+ yards in a game for the first time in the Ferentz era (maybe ever, I’m not going to do that research). Brendan Sullivan did what we needed him to do, he made the makeables, took care of the ball, and kept himself out of any dangerous situations. 7/10 for 93 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs isn’t going to win anyone any awards, but if Iowa can average 6 ypc and 5 rushing TDs a game, I don’t think anyone is going to complain (especially when he picks up 1st downs with his legs, extends plays, and keeps the defense honest as a running threat). He also managed to throw for the longest play from scrimmage Iowa has had this year (Zac Ortwerth’s 50+ scamper), so, you know, not too bad. Let’s hope that he can repeat that performance in LA, because no one knows what QB2 looks like in a game situation.

Let’s be honest, Wisconsin is a bad team right now and fortunately for Iowa, UCLA is also a pretty bad team right now. DeShaun Foster took over a program in disarray and is doing an admirable job at rebuilding that which Chip Kelly neglected, but it’s year one and he was pretty much starting from scratch. Last weeks win in Lincoln over a Raiola-less Nebraska team gave him his first winning streak, and the biggest road win, of his very young career, but neither Rutgers or Nebraska are Iowa, at least not “November” Iowa.

Not unlike Breadyn Locke up in Madison, UCLA’s Ethan Garbers can be dangerous, for both teams. He’s not a mobile QB but can make plays with his legs when he needs to and he’s completing 65% of his passes for 12.1 ypc and has thrown 10 TDs. Unfortunately for UCLA, he’s also thrown 9 INTs. There’s not much to talk about in the run game, with carries being split three ways and none of UCLAs three backs having accumulated more than 230 yards rushing in 8 games. Foster is still looking for his first win in Pasadena as a HC, I’m not sure this is the week that it happens, especially with the team having just completed a brtual road trip with back to back road games in Piscataway and Lincoln and now looking at a short week.

ADVANTAGE: Iowa (provided QB1 plays the whole game)

Defense

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Iowa – 309.8 ypg (203.4 passing, 106.3 rushing, 5.0 ypp), 18 ppg
UCLA – 361.6 ypg (261.3 passing, 100.4 rushing, 5.5 ypp), 27.9 ppg

For the second straight week Iowa’s defense pretty much shut their opponent down. The Badgers were able to move the ball on their first drive, but after taking a FG lead, it was pretty much all Iowa until garbage time (I’d say any drive that happens after you’ve gone up 25 points is garbage time). Between their first drive and their ninth Iowa forced 5 punts and picked Braedyn Locke off twice, allowing WIsconsin just 71 yards on 30 plays (2.36 ypp). That is very, very, good. Deshaun Lee had a touchdown saving PBU on that first drive and an INT on the second and then locked down his side of the field most of the night. Jermari Harris got beat for, possibly, the first time all season and gave up UW’s only TD (to pull them within 18 in the 4th) but looked otherwise untouchable, and the rest of the D looked more like last year than they have all year. It’s a good trend and I hope it continues.

UCLA’s defense last year was incredible, in fact there were only 5 defenses in the country that were superior (Iowa being one of them). That defense was led by D’Anton Lynn who is, well, now the Defensive Coordinator at USC. Needelss to say, UCLA’s defense has fallen off some, but they are still stout against the run (allowing just 3.3 ypc), so the Offensive Line has their work cut out for them. Their secondary, however, is quite bad, giving up 260+ yards per game, so maybe this is the game where we see Tim Lester crack open the playbook and emphasize the P in RPO a little more, especially as UCLA isn’t putting up huge sack numbers.

ADVANTAGE – Iowa (but I think it’s closer than the numbers show)

Special Teams

Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images

Iowa – 45.4 ypp, 78.6% fgm, 25.3 ypkr, 12.9 yppr, 1 TD
UCLA – 43.1 ypp, 80% fgm, 18.7 ypkr, 14.3 yppr

Rhys Dakin was really the only S/T player that got a chance to effect the game last Saturday, and even then, it wasn’t a huge impact. He did average 53.3 ypp (with a long of 57), but as Iowa on all 4 of their second half posessions, his game was done at half and Drew was perfect in the XP game. Drew is still second on the team in points (and there’s a lot of distance in both directions), but hasn’t had many chip shots of late, and Kaden has been forced into a lot of fair catches and touchbacks since housing that return against NW.

Fun fact, UCLA’s QB1 (Ethan Garbers) has 1 punt this season for 41 yards. Their regular punter is a Scottsdale native who’s averaging 43.4 yards per punt with a long of 61 and a ~43% IN20%. He’s no Rhys Dakin, but he’s no slouch. You’d think that UCLA would have returned a lot of kick’s based on their average points allowed, but they seem to let a lot of kicks go for TBs, and they’ve returned a total of 4 punts on the season.

ADVANTAGE – Iowa (as if there were really a doubt)

DeShaun Foster was kind of a surprise hire in the offseason after Chip Kelly bolted for Columbus and he’s got his work cut out for him. He’s not there yet but his kids play hard and it’s obvious that he wants to bring UCLA back to where they were his first couple of years in college. One can never tell how it’s going to go when you hire a former player with no Head Coaching experience, but sometimes it works out…

That being said, this is Iowa’s game to lose (which they might). There’s no QB controversy this week, but if Sullivan has a poor showing there might be one two weeks from now when the Hawks roll into College Park.

Numbers to Watch

1 – Brendan Sullivan, QB1. We will all be watching, very closely.

2 – KJ2 added 3 more TDs and another 100+ yard game last week, and while he probably won’t break Shonn Greene’s yardage record, the TD record is almost assured to fall this week.

4 – Ethan Garbers is the beating heart of this offense and if he can have another game like he’s had the last two weeks, this game could get away from the Hawks. His season stats may not be amazing, but the last two weeks have been pretty solid – 49/63 for 602 yards and 6 TDs through the air and 15 carries for 104 yards and another TD on the ground, all with zero turnovers.

8 – DeShaun Lee seems to have locked down his spot at Right Corner and had a helluva game against Wisconsin with 3 Solo tackles, a pick and a PBU. He took every meaningful snap at the RCB spot and had the highest PFF grade of any Iowa DB (77.3 overall).

17 – UCLAs offense hasn’t had many bright spots this season, but Logan Loya is one of them. He’s #3 on the team in catches and leads the team in TDs (with 3). Looking at UCLA’s offensive stats is a lot like looking at Iowa’s offensive stats from a year ago.

As always, GO HAWKS!!!