2024-11-09 08:35:03
PASADENA, Calif. − The external worries are plentiful and understandable for the Iowa football team this week.
The Hawkeyes are traveling multiple time zones west for a Friday night game against an ascending opponent in a stadium that has been the home of great disappointment for the program.
But there is a lot of evidence to dismiss some of those concerns as Iowa gets set to face UCLA. Let’s unpack each of those three things.
More:Iowa vs. UCLA score, live updates, highlights, how to watch Week 11 Hawkeyes football game
Big Ten teams are 7-14 this season when traveling multiple time zones.
That is true. But teams are also adjusting. After a 1-8 start in such games, the record has been 6-6 since.
And UCLA has been an anomaly in this trend. The Bruins have back-to-back wins when traveling multiple time zones – 35-32 at Rutgers, 27-20 at Nebraska. They also have two home losses against teams coming from afar to the Rose Bowl Stadium – 42-13 against Indiana, 21-17 against Minnesota. UCLA is actually 0-3 at home this season, the other loss coming to No. 1 Oregon. So … advantage Iowa?
“Indiana certainly didn’t buy that. They did pretty well out at UCLA. I’m not sure I buy that,” Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said on his weekly radio show Wednesday. “I’m also not sure I buy the narrative that West Coast teams aren’t physical. Washington had some physical guys several weeks ago (in a 40-16 Iowa win). And I’ll tell you, watching this UCLA group, they’ve got some guys, too. … I think a lot of that stuff gets overhyped.”
In other words, the result of these time-zone-travel games have been more about the quality of the play. And road games typically are more difficult to begin with, which is a bigger part of that 7-14 record.
But what about a short preparation on top of the travel?
Well, Iowa actually has a good history on this. Since the Hawkeyes switched to morning practices following the 2014 season and changed the players’ required day off from Monday to Thursday, they are 10-1 in Friday games. That includes a sterling 7-0 record in Friday road games – 5-0 at Nebraska (2015, ’17, ’19, ’21, ’23), 1-0 at Minnesota (2020) and 1-0 at Maryland (2021).
The closest parallel to this turnaround would be the Friday night game at Maryland in 2021, six days after a home win against Colorado State. The Hawkeyes blew out the unbeaten Terrapins, 51-14, with a 31-point second quarter and seven forced turnovers. That was a night to party for a large contingent of Hawkeye fans in the Washington, D.C., area. It would not be a surprise to see 15,000 Hawkeye fans or more invade the Rose Bowl.
Because Iowa’s usual off day is Thursday, that became the travel day this week – and the players will instead get Saturday off. The only tweak in the routine was ramping up a little bit more in practices Monday and Tuesday while going lighter on Wednesday. Once again, the play on the field is more important than the short preparation for Iowa.
What about Iowa’s recent history in West Coast games?
Ferentz ahead of the 2019 Holiday Bowl in San Diego said as long as he was Iowa’s coach, he would never play another West Coast game in the regular season. “We’re not going down that road again, I can assure you that,” he said then.
Ferentz’s comments were rooted in difficult program losses in 2004 at Arizona State (44-7) and 2010 at Arizona (34-27) when Iowa had very good teams. The Hawkeyes were demolished in their only Rose Bowl trip under Ferentz (45-16 by Stanford to painfully end the 2015 season).
Of course, those comments were made before four teams from the West joined the Big Ten this season. This is Iowa’s first regular-season road game in the Pacific time zone since a 44-18 loss at Oregon in 1994. But this trend is here to stay. Iowa is slated to visit USC in 2025, Washington in 2026 and Oregon in 2027.
Most of these current Hawkeye players were between ages 10 and 14 the last time Iowa played in the Rose Bowl. That history is not important compared to how the team is playing on the field, and fifth-year senior linebacker Jay Higgins leads a defense that hopes to travel well. This team sounds confident and ready to atone for back-to-back road losses (Oct. 5 at Ohio State, Oct. 19 at Michigan State).
“These last couple weeks, the defense, offense and special teams, we have done a good job of putting everything together,” Higgins said. “We’re really playing off of each other.”
Chad Leistikow’s Iowa football vs. UCLA prediction
Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3, 4-2) at UCLA Bruins (3-5, 2-4)
Time, TV, line: 8 p.m. CT, FOX, Iowa by 6 points
Where Iowa has the edge: While poor rushing defense bit the Hawkeyes in road losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, they’ll go against the last-ranked rushing offense in FBS in UCLA. Iowa still has the No. 18 rush defense nationally, and UCLA is averaging only 73.9 yards on the ground per game. Iowa is converting 45% of third downs this season and goes against the nation’s worst third-down defense. UCLA has allowed a 54.3% conversion rate.
Where UCLA has the edge: The Bruins are built to stop Iowa’s best strength, which is Kaleb Johnson and the run game. They are No. 11 nationally against the run, allowing 100.4 yards per game. And as good as Brendan Sullivan has been for Iowa, UCLA has a mobile quarterback of its own in Ethan Garbers, who has thrown for nearly 900 yards and rushed for 100-plus in UCLA’s last three games. Offensively, UCLA has been a lot more productive since reshuffling its offensive line in early October. This is a sneaky-good, athletic team.
Prediction: Iowa 24, UCLA 20 … The Hawkeyes are 31-0 when scoring 21-plus points since 2020, and they are averaging 21.7 in the second half alone this season. Sullivan must stay healthy, with only walk-on Jackson Stratton available as a backup. The Hawkeyes will get off to their usual slow start but put the hammer down in the second half and eke out their first Pasadena win in 66 years, which will feel cathartic to Hawkeye fans everywhere.
Hawkeyes columnist Chad Leistikow has served for 30 years with The Des Moines Register and USA TODAY Sports Network. Chad is the 2023 INA Iowa Sports Columnist of the Year and NSMA Co-Sportswriter of the Year in Iowa. Join Chad’s text-message group (free for subscribers) at HawkCentral.com/HawkeyesTexts. Follow @ChadLeistikow on X.
