Saints vs. Chiefs odds, line, spread, prediction: Monday Night Football picks from NFL model on 188-131 roll

The Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) host the New Orleans Saints (2-2) in a battle on Monday Night Football to conclude the Week 5 NFL schedule. The Chiefs have been hammered with injuries on the offensive end through the first month of the season. Kansas City is without Isiah Pacheco (fibula), Rashee Rice (knee) and Marquise Brown (shoulder), all of whom are on injured reserve. Mecole Hardman (knee) is questionable for Kansas City, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) is doubtful. Willie Gay (hand), Taysom Hill (rib), Cesar Ruiz (knee) and Payton Turner (knee) have all been ruled out for the Saints. 

Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City is 8:15 p.m. ET. After opening at -7.5, Kansas City is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Saints vs. Chiefs odds via SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 43, down from opening at 45. Before locking in any Chiefs vs. Saints picks, make sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-131 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-23 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Saints vs. Chiefs 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and Week 5 betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and NFL betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under for Chiefs vs. Saints:

• Saints vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -5.5
• Saints vs. Chiefs over/under: 43 points
• Saints vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -246, New Orleans +200
• KC: Chiefs have hit the 4Q Under in 17 of their last 19 games
• NO: Saints have hit the 2H money line in 10 of their last 13 games
• Saints vs. Chiefs picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Saints vs. Chiefs streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Chiefs can cover

The Chiefs have been hammered with injuries on the offensive end of the field, but they still have quarterback Patrick Mahomes under center. Mahomes is known for his pinpoint accuracy, unorthodox arm angles and superb arm strength. He’s 11th in the NFL in passing yards (904) and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (6). Last week, he went 19-of-29 for 245 yards and one passing score.

Running back Kareem Hunt is back in Kansas City to help in the backfield. Hunt has impressive vision with the ball and has secure hands as a pass-catcher. Last week versus the Chargers, Hunt had 69 rushing yards. In his career, the Toledo product has 1,906 receiving yards and 17 receiving scores. Receiver Xavier Worthy will see more opportunities in the passing game now. His game-breaking speed makes him dangerous as a vertical threat. The Texas product uses that to his advantage in open space. Thus far, Worthy has nine receptions for 154 yards and two touchdowns. In his last outing, Worthy had three grabs for 73 yards and one score. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why the Saints can cover

Running back Alvin Kamara is one of the most dynamic weapons in the league, though he has been limited in practice this week  (ribs/hip). Kamara has sticky hands as a weapon coming out of the backfield, but still has strong vision as a runner. The Tennessee product was tied for second in the league in carries (80), fourth in rushing yards (362) and tied for first in rushing touchdowns (5) entering the week. Kamara has finished with 110 total scrimmage yards in every game this season.

Receiver Chris Olave is an another difference-maker in the aerial attack. Olave runs crisp routes and has the speed to break away from defenders. In 2024, he has 20 catches for 265 yards and a touchdown. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Saints vs. Chiefs picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 46 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s picks. 

So who wins Chiefs vs. Saints on Monday Night Football, and which side of the spread cashes more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Saints spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.