It’s said that markets hate uncertainty. That was certainly the case when stocks staged a torrid rally on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. The so-called Trump trade was in full force, with some names benefitting more than others.
Risk appetite returned with gluttonous abandon on Wednesday, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 3% to 18,983 and the small-cap Russell 2000 popped nearly 6%. The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 3.6%, or 1,508 points to 43,729, while the broader S&P 500 rose 2.5% to 5,929.
Financial stocks were the day’s biggest winners at the sector level, followed by energy and industrials. Of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors, only real estate, consumer staples and utilities finished in the red.
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Outside of equities, benchmark 10-year Treasury notes sold off, raising borrowing costs at the longer end of the yield curve. Gold and oil declined.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – also known as the investor fear gauge – plummeted by about a fifth.
“Election results are sending stocks to the moon as investors celebrate GOP control of the White House and Senate,” writes José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. “A red sweep has likely arrived in Washington, with market participants enthusiastic that a lighter regulatory regime, lower tax rates, a business-friendly environment and ‘Made in America’ policies will drive sales and profitability.”
Stocks in focus
Financials were the biggest winners on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs (GS) was the Dow’s best performer, gaining 13.1%. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) rose 11.6%, while American Express (AXP) – one of Warren Buffett’s top stocks – was up 7%.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was led by financial names such as Discover Financial Services (DFS, +20.1%) and Synchrony Financial (SYF, +18.8%). American steel producer Nucor (NUE, +16%) – one of the best stocks for reliable dividend growth – also topped the S&P 500 charts.
Outside of the main equity benchmarks, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT, +5.8%) enjoyed more modest upside during the session.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 – an index of the largest non-financial companies in the Nasdaq Composite – saw strong performance from industrial stocks – but one sector name in particular stood out.
Tesla stock soars
Tesla (TSLA) stock rallied 14.8% on Wednesday for obvious reasons. “TSLA is sharply higher because of Elon Musk’s coziness with the President-elect,” writes Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick.
The electric vehicle (EV) maker gained nearly $120 billion in market cap, or more than the entire market value of Nike (NKE), a Buy-rated Dow Jones stock. While some of Trump’s proposed trade policies could be a headwind for the wider industry, Tesla should benefit, bulls contend.
“We believe a Trump presidency would be an overall negative for the EV industry as likely the EV rebates/tax incentives get pulled,” writes Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives, who rates shares at Outperform (Buy). “However, for Tesla we see this as a potential positive with some caveats. Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched in the EV industry and this dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment.”
Be that as it may, whether Tesla stock is a buy at current levels is a matter of debate among the wider community of industry analysts.
Fed meeting on tap
Markets were so busy digesting the outcome of the election they were unable to mount the usual anxiety that precedes meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Indeed, the next Fed meeting wraps up tomorrow with an afternoon policy announcement and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Market participants are highly confident the Fed will deliver another quarter-point cut to the short-term federal funds rate. However, as always, the real action will take place during Powell’s post-statement presser.
As of November 6, futures traders assigned a 98% probability to the FOMC cutting rates by 25 basis points (bps), or 0.25%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.