President-Elect Donald Trump is poised to expand upon policies he implemented during his first term in office, such as those emphasizing limited government, states’ rights and lower taxes. Additionally, it is anticipated that the newly elected president and his administration will target many Biden Administration policies on the environment, immigration, foreign policy and more. Many of these actions could be set forth by executive order in the initial days and weeks of a second Trump Administration.
This Holland & Knight alert is intended to provide an overview of the key policy focuses of the Trump Administration as further described in the Republican Party Platform, including some key issues such as tax, foreign policy and the economy.
Transportation
- Aviation. President-Elect Trump will likely halt a number of pending rulemaking initiatives, such as potentially stalling upcoming processes of Notices of Proposed Rulemaking regarding family seating and wheelchair accessibility. His administration will likely take a narrower approach to enforcement action, as was the case in the previous Trump Administration, which indicated that regulators could seek to enforce only requirements codified in “black and white” statutes and regulations and not base any action on violations of regulatory guidance or policy. He also is expected to reverse current policies on airline mergers and international aviation policies, taking a laissez-faire approach to airline competition and abandoning some of the Biden Administration’s environmental and international initiatives.
- Drones and Advanced Air Mobility. Drones were a priority under the first Trump Administration and will likely continue to be under the second. During his first term, President Trump issued a Presidential Memorandum requiring the U.S. Department of Transportation to establish the Drone Integration Pilot Program and took numerous steps to accelerate drone integration into the national airspace system. President-Elect Trump is expected to maintain and expand progress on Advanced Air Mobility; however, he will likely deemphasize the climate benefits of electrification and promote the opportunity for American leadership and growth in U.S. high-skilled manufacturing jobs.
- Automotive Policy. President-Elect Trump is expected to reverse the Biden Administration’s light-duty vehicle emissions standards, which he refers to as an electric vehicle (EV) mandate. Elon Musk will likely have influence in how the Trump Administration approaches automotive issues. President-Elect Trump won with the support of auto manufacturing workers in the Midwest and will likely champion issues that will grow U.S. automotive manufacturing jobs by opposing Chinese manufactured vehicles and foreign manufacturing relocation to Mexico. President-Elect Trump is expected to support significant tariffs on any cars made overseas that he deems to have an unfair advantage of American-made autos.
- Autonomous Transportation. In his first term, President Trump’s U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) took significant steps to advance autonomous vehicles in the U.S. He will likely shift back to pro-autonomy policies and reinvigorate the Automated Vehicles Comprehensive Plan. President-Elect Trump likely will be cautious on policies that could eliminate commercial motor vehicle driver jobs based on his support from labor unions.
- Rail. President-Elect Trump will likely reverse a number of the Biden Administration’s railway policies. He is expected to reduce funding for high-speed rail projects and roll back safety regulations, including on hazardous gas transit, crew member requirements and fatigue risk.
- IIJA. It is safe to assume the Trump Administration will conduct a comprehensive review of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and seek to roll back those portions of the bill that he deems to be excessive spending. In his first administration, President Trump issued Executive Orders curbing the National Environmental Policy Act, Endangered Species Act and Clean Water Act in order to speed up permits for federal infrastructure projects and will likely do so again.
Environment
- Rollbacks. President-Elect Trump has vowed to renew his aggressive deregulatory efforts, including forcing the removal of multiple existing regulations for any new regulation proposed. He has also said he would “stop the flow of American tax dollars that are subsidizing Chinese electric vehicle battery companies” and roll back Biden-era regulations promoting EV adoption. Additionally, he has said he would ban environmental, social and governance (ESG) investments. President-Elect Trump has also pledged to rescind the remaining funding from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). A second Trump Administration likely will significantly target the EPA through smaller budgets and efforts to decrease the size and reach of the agency. Additionally, a Trump EPA could focus on cooperative federalism while adopting a more permissive approach to environmental regulation of interstate commerce. Expect to see a rollback of the EPA’s interregional enforcement initiatives and its Environmental Justice programming, particularly its grant funding to environmental organizations, which may be subject to investigations for misuse of such funding alleged by House Republications.
- Fossil Fuels. President-Elect Trump has vowed to increase the domestic production of oil and refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. He wants to reduce the amount of time it would take to approve drilling permits on public lands by half and increase permit applications to drill on federal land. President-Elect Trump also seeks to make the U.S. the dominant energy producer globally and independent of foreign fuel.
- Job Retention. President-Elect Trump has derided climate spending as a “money grab” for environmental groups, believing that it ships American jobs overseas. He seeks to cut back on spending to retain jobs domestically and could look to impose large tariffs on companies that manufacture goods overseas.
- Paris Climate Agreement. President-Elect Trump has cast climate change as a “hoax” and withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Though President Joe Biden rejoined the pact in 2021, President-Elect Trump has pledged to withdraw again.
- Reforming the NIH, CDC and Possibly FDA. Reform of several public health agencies is likely to be a serious discussion in a second Trump Administration. Proposals that include sharply trimming back the scope of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) work and consolidating the National Institutes of Health’s (NIH) institutes and centers into a more streamlined agency are likely. Efforts to address perceived conflicts of interest related to external business relations or external funding sources (e.g., U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) user fees and NIH royalties) could be part of this.
Healthcare
- Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). President Trump attempted multiple times to repeal the ACA during his first term, and he has mentioned implementing a less-costly replacement, although he has provided no specifics.
- State-Level Control of Reproductive Health. In his first term, President Trump appointed three of the U.S. Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade, and he supports allowing states to craft their own legislation on reproductive health measures.
- Prescription Drug Costs. President-Elect Trump supports lowering prescription drug costs. During his first term, he signed the Know the Lowest Price Act and Patient Right to Know Drug Prices Act, which prohibit pharmacies from withholding information to enrollees regarding pricing and costs. However, President-Elect Trump has been critical of the Biden Administration’s effort to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices but provided no alternative options.
- Veterans’ Healthcare. President Trump’s plan for veterans’ healthcare focuses on expanding access to private care and cutting costs. During his first term, he signed the VA MISSION Act, which created the Veterans Community Care Program and allowed veterans to receive care at non-U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) facilities.
- FDA/Public Health. President-Elect Trump has said he wants to create an “independent” commission to examine the cause of increases in chronic disease. The Trump campaign also aligned with many of the positions expressed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., including FDA reforms such as reduction or elimination of user fees and removal of “chemicals” in food.
Taxes
- Business Taxes. President-Elect Trump would seek to extend the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Job Act (TCJA). He also plans to build on the TCJA by further lowering the corporate income tax rate from 21 percent to 15 percent (for domestic production only). To achieve this, he might seek to reinstate the Domestic Production Activities Deduction (former Section 199 of the Internal Revenue Code), which was repealed in 2017.
- Individual Income Taxes. President-Elect Trump wants to make the expiring tax provisions of TCJA as they relate to individual tax provisions permanent and has stated that increased tariffs could offset the cost of making such individual tax provisions permanent.
- Individual Credits, Deductions and Exemptions. President-Elect Trump has also suggested that he wishes to bring back the unlimited itemized deduction for state and local taxes (SALT). He has additionally expressed plans to exempt Social Security payments, tip income and overtime pay from income tax and seeks to create a deduction for auto loan interest and a tax credit for family caregivers.
Energy
- As previously mentioned, President-Elect Trump’s energy policy can best be characterized by a robust emphasis on fossil fuels, extensive regulatory rollbacks and a scaling back of renewable energy policies. He believes these changes will reduce energy costs, achieve “energy dominance” and boost the competitiveness of U.S. industries.
- Deregulation. President-Elect Trump could seek to rescind several environmental regulations from the Biden Administration, including those focused on emissions reductions from power plants, vehicles and energy production or on limiting liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. He also plans to reduce restrictions on fossil fuel industries to increase production efficiency and lower costs.
- Climate Change. President-Elect Trump strongly opposes the Paris Climate Agreement and Inflation Reduction Act, arguing that they and other climate change-related measures restrict energy development and increase costs. He also could move to counteract environmental lawsuits that hinder energy projects and discourage development.
- Energy Costs, Mining and Nuclear Energy. President-Elect Trump plans to lower consumer energy costs by rolling back mandates on fuel and emissions standards and by offering tax breaks for oil, gas and coal industries while opposing renewable subsidies. Though President-Elect Trump’s support for new nuclear energy is unclear, he may seek to reduce reliance on foreign nuclear materials by unleashing domestic mining in the U.S. for all critical minerals.
- Domestic Oil and Gas Production. President-Elect Trump may seek to pursue policies to increase domestic oil and gas production, including increasing access to public lands and offshore waters to oil and gas development, ending the Biden Administration’s “pause” on new LNG export permits, reducing the regulatory burdens and costs on oil and gas exploration, development and transportation, and streamlining the permit process for new oil and gas infrastructure projects.
- Countering Reliance on China and Foreign Actors with Energy Technology. President-Elect Trump likely will pursue policies to advance domestic manufacturing in the energy technology space and further discourage reliance on Chinese and foreign manufacturing by offering incentives that encourage companies to relocate to the U.S.
- Critical Minerals. President-Elect Trump plans to reinvigorate and expand previous efforts associated with mining and critical minerals integral to clean technology, including solar energy equipment and lithium batteries – especially as it pertains to reducing the country’s dependence on China.
Immigration
- Deportation. President-Elect Trump has stated he would to implement mass deportation of undocumented immigrants through expedited removal at mass migrant camps and plans to deploy the military to assist in this effort. He also intends to end “catch and release” and detain immigrants who are caught entering the U.S. without authorization. He also may move to restore migrant family separations to deter illegal immigration.
- Pathways to U.S. Citizenship. President-Elect Trump has said he will aim to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, as well as “birthright” citizenship for children born in the U.S. to undocumented parents.
- Refugees and Asylum Seekers. President-Elect Trump has plans to restore the Remain in Mexico program and roll back Temporary Protected Status designations, as well as end the immigration parole program for those in humanitarian crises. Additionally, President-Elect Trump has promised to enact a travel ban for people entering from several Muslim-majority nations and regions, including the Gaza Strip.
- Securing the Border. President-Elect Trump has vowed to complete the border wall and use all resources necessary to stop illegal immigration, including moving thousands of troops stationed overseas to the southern border.
Defense
- Modernization. President-Elect Trump is expected to modernize the military by investing in advanced technologies, particularly an Iron Dome-style missile defense shield, and increasing the defense budget as he did in his previous administration. He has also pledged to increase troop pay.
- Alliances. President-Elect Trump will seek to ensure that allies meet defense obligations as he did in his first term and will likely seek to negotiate with Russia. He is a vocal supporter of Israel but has said the war needs to end soon. Finally, he is supportive of Indo-Pacific allies but will encourage Taiwan to play a more active role in its defense.
- Industrial Base. President-Elect Trump aims to revive the industrial base to ensure job creation and defense production, with a focus on domestically manufactured goods. Besides the use of tariffs, he has not specified plans to boost defense production. However, in his first term, he did leverage the Defense Production Act to spur domestic production expansion.
- Critical Infrastructure. President-Elect Trump has prioritized the protection of critical infrastructure from cyber threats by raising security standards and enhancing defenses.
Foreign Policy/Trade
- Israel and the Middle East. President-Elect Trump has pledged to stand with Israel and restore peace in the Middle East by rebuilding the U.S. alliance network in the region. He has spoken in support of Israel’s mission, though he has at times been critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
- China. President-Elect Trump has promised to take a strong stance on China but has declined to say if he would send troops to defend Taiwan. He plans to revoke China’s Most Favored Nation trade status, attain economic independence from China and prevent China from buying American real estate.
- Russia and Ukraine. President-Elect Trump has said that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war on his “first day in office.” He could curtail support to Ukraine to try to force a settlement, claiming that the U.S. risks World War III by continuing in the conflict. He has been critical of NATO, saying that the U.S. pays too much into it while European countries do not carry their weight.
- Mexico and Canada. President-Elect Trump has said that he will formally notify Mexico and Canada of his intention to utilize the six-year renegotiating provision of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to strike what he views as a better deal, notably in the car industry.
- Tariffs. President-Elect Trump has said he will increase tariffs on foreign countries, arguing that raising tariffs and implementing universal baseline tariffs, coupled with lowering domestic taxes, will make America a manufacturing powerhouse again. He is not a fan of large, multilateral trade deals, so it is reasonable to expect a return to bilateral trade agreements, including a review of the Korean-U.S. Trade Agreement (KORUS) and the USMCA, among others, in a second term.
Agriculture and Food
- Tariffs. President-Elect Trump’s plan to impose 10 percent to 20 percent universal tariffs on imports and higher tariffs on Chinese imports could prompt retaliation by trading partners, with U.S. food and agriculture exports to be targeted. In his first administration, President Trump used U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) funds to compensate farmers hurt by tariffs and will likely do so again.
- Food and Dietary Guidelines. President-Elect Trump has indicated in recent weeks support for what some consider controversial approaches to food policy espoused by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., including limiting pesticide use and addressing risks of “artificial foods” (an undefined term). Such proposals could face stiff opposition from many food and agriculture stakeholders, including Republican legislators, so it’s unclear whether or to what extent the Trump Administration will carry them out.
Education
- Student Loans. The first Trump Administration did not prioritize higher education; however, that is expected to change as the new power structure likely will want to reverse course from the Biden Administration’s focus on student loan forgiveness, increased regulation and an emphasis on enforcement by the Office of Federal Student Aid (FSA).
- Higher Education Act (HEA). HEA was last reauthorized in 2008, so support for congressional action on updated legislation can be expected, including enhanced accountability for institutions of higher education and reform of accreditation.
- For-Profit Institutions. For-profit colleges and universities may see the Trump Administration propose friendly regulations
- Workforce Development. It is anticipated that the incoming administration will strongly support workforce development initiatives, alternative career pathways and apprenticeships.
- Title IX. During the first Trump Administration, the U.S. Department of Education updated Title IX rules. The Biden Administration replaced those regulations with new ones, which now are being challenged in the courts. It is expected that the incoming administration will support its previous posture and strengthen due process protections for those accused of assault.
- College Endowments. Taxation of college endowments is expected to be back on the table as Congress wrestles with the expiring TCJA given its potential as a revenue source.
- Affirmative Action and DEI. It is anticipated that the upcoming Trump Administration will roll back or eliminate education-based Affirmative Action and diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs.
- Education Department. While some may call for the dissolution of the Education Department, such a bill is unlikely to pass the Congress. Hence, the new administration may seek other tools to minimize the agency’s influence on matters it believes are best left to the states.
- School Choice. Regarding K-12 education, it is anticipated that the next Trump Administration will offer strong support for school choice and charter school expansion in the states.
For more information or questions, please contact the authors.
Information contained in this alert is for the general education and knowledge of our readers. It is not designed to be, and should not be used as, the sole source of information when analyzing and resolving a legal problem, and it should not be substituted for legal advice, which relies on a specific factual analysis. Moreover, the laws of each jurisdiction are different and are constantly changing. This information is not intended to create, and receipt of it does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. If you have specific questions regarding a particular fact situation, we urge you to consult the authors of this publication, your Holland & Knight representative or other competent legal counsel.