Browns vs. Commanders prediction, odds, line, spread, time: 2024 NFL picks, Week 5 best bets from proven model

The Cleveland Browns look to avoid their third straight loss as they are a slight road underdog against the Washington Commanders on Sunday. Cleveland (1-3) fell to the Raiders, 20-16, in Week 4, while Washington (3-1) defeated Arizona, 42-14, last week. The Browns have won each of the last two meetings between these teams, including a 24-10 win on New Year’s Day  2023.

Kickoff from Northwest Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET. Washington is a 3-point favorite in the latest Commanders vs. Browns odds, per SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points is 43.5. Before making any Browns vs. Commanders picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-131 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-23 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Browns vs. Commanders and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 5 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for spread, money line and over/under:

• Commanders vs. Browns spread: Commanders -3
• Commanders vs. Browns over/under: 43.5 points
• Commanders vs. Browns money line: Commanders -157, Browns +133
• Commanders vs. Browns picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Commanders vs. Browns streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Browns can cover

Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson continues to struggle in Cleveland, having failed to surpass 200 yards passing in all four games this season. After watching departed backup QB Joe Flacco lead the team to the postseason last year, Watson’s play is a far cry from what the team had late in 2023. Cleveland’s offensive line has been a problem though, having allowed 19 sacks thus far this season.

If Watson is to break out this week against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, wide receiver Amari Cooper is a positive regression candidate. He has only 16 catches on 37 targets for 148 yards and two touchdowns. While he did have a long score called back last week due to a penalty, Cooper has an astounding eight drops already this season, more than his seven from last year. The Browns’ offense will need to step up or the team will likely fall to 1-4 and be preparing more for next season’s NFL Draft than the playoff race. See which team to pick here.

Why the Commanders can cover

Only four games into his NFL career, not many quarterbacks are playing better this season than Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in April’s draft. Though he’s only thrown for three touchdowns, the rookie has rushed for four more and only turned the ball over once. Washington’s opening day loss to Tampa Bay has been in the rearview mirror, as their new star has propelled them to three straight victories, including two on the road.

Daniels’ top target, wide receiver Terry McLaurin, got off to a slow start in 2024 but has played excellent over the team’s last two games. He has a combined 11 catches for 152 yards and two touchdowns in consecutive road wins over Cincinnati and Arizona, and will be Daniels’ first read in the passing game most of the time. In the meantime, Washington will lean on its rushing attack, though running back Brian Robinson Jr.’s (knee) is listed as questionable. See which team to pick here.

How to make Browns vs. Commanders picks

The model has simulated Cleveland vs. Washington 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only see the model’s Browns vs. Commanders pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Washington vs. Cleveland on Sunday, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Browns vs. Commanders spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 188-131 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.