Three down, three to go for Team USA. After stomping through the group stage with an undefeated 3-0 record and a dominant +64 point differential, the Americans have earned the No. 1 seed in the knockout stage of the 2024 Paris Olympics and are halfway to a gold medal in Paris.
Of course, the first three games were the easy part. This is where things get harder. Only eight of the 12 teams in the field remain, and unlike the group stage, there are no second chances. If you lose, you’re out, and Team USA’s first single-elimination contest in the Olympics will come against a foe it hasn’t seen in nearly three decades. Team USA has a 9-0 record against Brazil in the Olympics, but their last bout came all the way back in 1996. Not even LeBron James is old enough to have played in that one, so this is a group of Brazilian Olympians that Team USA has never seen.
So what can Team USA expect against Brazil? Here are our best bets for Tuesday’s contest:
Team USA vs. Brazil
The final two games Team USA plays in the Olympics may yet be difficult. This one shouldn’t be. Brazil lost by double digits to both France and Germany. It needed to shoot 61% from 3-point range to get by Japan. We can be honest and say the primary reason Brazil advanced was its draw. Had it been a part of Group A, the group of death, it likely goes 0-3 against any combination of those teams. Spain is the superior team but got the worse draw. It still only finished a single point behind Brazil in the point-differential standings. Brazil’s only current NBA player is Gui Santos, currently on a non-guaranteed deal with the Warriors. The talent just isn’t here. The Pick: Team USA -27
When Brazil faced France in group play, it got out to a hot start and scored 23 points in the first quarter. The team then scored 22 in the next two quarters combined when Rudy Gobert returned from early foul trouble and Victor Wembanyama took over the game defensively. That should give you a rough idea of what is going to happen when Team USA unleashes its best defenders in this matchup. Sure, Brazil could get hot from three again, but this roster just has no ability to truly penetrate the paint against elite rim-protection. Brazil’s point guard is 41 years old. The Pick: Under 184.5
Inflated line alert! Bruno Caboclo went scoreless against France. He scored six points against Germany. And then he scored 33 points against an overwhelmed Japanese lineup that was winless in group play. Now he’s playing against Team USA and his line is set at 14.5 points at Caesars. Bruno Caboclo played 105 NBA games and went over this total exactly five times. Scoring against Japan and scoring against NBA superstars are entirely different tasks. There’s a bit of novelty built into this line. NBA fans have heard of Caboclo. They’ve heard Fran Fraschilla’s famous “two years away from being two years away” description and have likely done the math that it has been 10 years since he said that. They may even have seen that he just scored 33 points in a game. That was a one-time occurrence. The Pick: Caboclo Under 14.5 Points.