What Steve Kornacki is watching for tonight: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to an Election Day edition of From the Politics Desk, where we’ll get you set up with everything you need before the results start coming in tonight. We’ll be back in your inbox early tomorrow morning with the latest. 

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3 bellwether counties to watch tonight

By Steve Kornacki

After months of stump speeches, ads and polls, we are now just hours away from polls closing across the country. As the results pour in this evening, starting on the East Coast, there are three battleground state counties in particular I will be keeping a close eye on for a sense of which way the political winds are blowing in the presidential contest. 

Fayette County, Georgia: The key to Democratic success in Georgia in recent elections has been the growing Atlanta metro area. Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, Douglas, Cobb, Gwinnett, Rockdale, Newton and Henry counties have constituted a “blue blob” of support for the party right in the middle of the state. One of the questions for this election is whether Kamala Harris can continue to extend the blob beyond those nine counties. 

Fayette County, south of Fulton and home to Peachtree City, is a place that might be a harbinger of Donald Trump’s weakness if he’s losing additional support in the Atlanta metro.

Nash County, North Carolina: The county voted for Barack Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020. Whoever wins the county tonight might signal what the national picture will look like. 

Northeast of Raleigh, Nash County is about 40% Black, a population that may help illuminate how this particular group of working-class voters is engaging this year.

Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania: A 3-point Hillary Clinton win in this county in 2016 turned into an 8-point win for Biden in 2020, as his Scranton roots may have helped him win back some of the voters that have swung noticeably toward Trump since 2012. White working-class voters, along with a growing Latino population, are the dynamics to watch as Lackawanna could take another hard turn back toward Trump.

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🗳️ Your election night guide

• Here’s an hour-by-hour guide to when the battleground state polls close, the most competitive congressional races, and many of the key ballot measures to watch, all organized by poll closing time.
• In addition to the three listed by Steve above, here are the other key counties to keep an eye on across the swing states.
• And here are the down-ballot races that could serve as early bellwethers.

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That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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